Global scenarios of resource and emission savings from material efficiency in residential buildings and cars

Pauliuk, Stefan; Heeren, Niko; Berrill, Peter; Fishman, Tomer; Nistad, Andrea; Tu, Qingshi; Wolfram, Paul; Hertwich, Edgar G.

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25300-4

Cited by 143 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 60 publications

(59 reference statements)

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“…The analysis for the global EV fleet (BEVs and PHEVs) presented in this article is based on the ODYM-RECC model [18,30,31], which uses the IAM-based narratives for the trends driving the deployment of EVs. From the publicly available ODYM-RECC output files [30,32], we used the yearly inflows of EVs into the stock, defined in million units per year. The total size of the LDV stock varies according to the socioeconomic pathway (SSP1, SSP2 and LED), while the penetration (intended as a total share of the stock) of BEVs and PHEVs depends on the climate policy scenario (RCP2.6 or baseline).…”

Section: Ev Fleet and Battery Scenario Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Li-ion battery industry in light of the global transition to electric passenger light duty vehicles until 2050

Usai¹,

Lamb²,

Hertwich³

et al. 2022

Environ. Res.: Infrastruct. Sustain.

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The decarbonization of the transport sector requires a rapid expansion of global battery production and an adequate supply with raw materials currently produced in small volumes. We investigate whether battery production can be a bottleneck in the expansion of electric vehicles and specify the investment in capital and skills required to manage the transition. This may require a battery production rate in the range of 4–12 TWh/year, which entails the use of 19–50 Mt/year of materials. Strengthening the battery value chain requires a global effort in many sectors of the economy that will need to grow according to the battery demand, to avoid bottlenecks along the supply chains. Significant investment for the establishment of production facilities (150–300 billion USD in the next 30 years) and the employment of a large global workforce (400k–1 million) with specific knowledge and skillset are essential. However, the employment and investment required are uncertain given the relatively early development stage of the sector, the continuous advancements in the technology and the wide range of possible future demand. Finally, the deployment of novel battery technologies that are still in the development stage could reduce the demand for critical raw materials and require the partial or total redesign of production and recycling facilities affecting the investment needed for each factory.

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Section: Ev Fleet and Battery Scenario Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Li-ion battery industry in light of the global transition to electric passenger light duty vehicles until 2050

Usai¹,

Lamb²,

Hertwich³

et al. 2022

Environ. Res.: Infrastruct. Sustain.

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“…This reflects restrictions on building heights. Oslo's municipal plan, for example, allows structures of up to 30 metres in dedicated inner-city development areas (Oslo Municipality, 2015 [51]). But in most districts the plan prevents building structures more than seven metres taller than the  Norway's State Housing Bank, Husbanken, administers social housing assistance in coordination with municipalities.…”

Section: Progress Has Been Made To Soften Land-use Restrictionsmore I...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Making Norway’s housing more affordable and sustainable

2022

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

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“…One of the promising approaches to reducing the demand for EVs is to promote carsharing and ridesharing. Carsharing and ridesharing would contribute to a reduction in the number of personally owned vehicles (e.g., 25-75% [66]), which would contribute to a reduced number of newly produced vehicles [67]. This would eventually lead to lower resource use for LIBs.…”

Section: Strategic Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Resource Circularity for Lithium-Ion Batteries up to 2050: Traction and Stationary Use

Kosai

Takata

Yamasue

2022

Mining

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The use of the lithium-ion battery (LIB) in both traction and stationary applications has become ubiquitous. It is essential that retired LIBs are wisely treated, with a basis in the concept of the circular economy, to mitigate primary resource use. A closed-loop repurposing and recycling treatment is required. Thus, using the concept of total material requirement as an indicator of natural resource use based on mining activity, a dynamic material flow analysis was executed considering the degradation of the battery, its lifespan, and demand patterns under several scenarios. Then, the effect of circularity on the savings in global natural resource use involved across the entire lifecycles of LIBs was evaluated. It was found that the global resource use for LIBs will increase to between 10 and 48 Gt in 2050. Circularity has the potential to contribute to an 8–44% reduction in the global resource use associated with LIBs in 2050. It was also found that a longer lifespan in the years leading up to 2050 would have a greater impact on the reduction of resource use for LIBs, despite the lower effectiveness of circularity, because it would reduce the demand for LIBs.

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Global scenarios of resource and emission savings from material efficiency in residential buildings and cars

Cited by 143 publications

References 60 publications

Analysis of the Li-ion battery industry in light of the global transition to electric passenger light duty vehicles until 2050

Analysis of the Li-ion battery industry in light of the global transition to electric passenger light duty vehicles until 2050

Making Norway’s housing more affordable and sustainable

Global Resource Circularity for Lithium-Ion Batteries up to 2050: Traction and Stationary Use

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