Analysis of the Li-ion battery industry in light of the global transition to electric passenger light duty vehicles until 2050

Abstract

The decarbonization of the transport sector requires a rapid expansion of global battery production and an adequate supply with raw materials currently produced in small volumes. We investigate whether battery production can be a bottleneck in the expansion of electric vehicles and specify the investment in capital and skills required to manage the transition. This may require a battery production rate in the range of 4–12 TWh/year, which entails the use of 19–50 Mt/year of materials. Strengthening the battery value chain requires a global effort in many sectors of the economy that will need to grow according to the battery demand, to avoid bottlenecks along the supply chains. Significant investment for the establishment of production facilities (150–300 billion USD in the next 30 years) and the employment of a large global workforce (400k–1 million) with specific knowledge and skillset are essential. However, the employment and investment required are uncertain given the relatively early development stage of the sector, the continuous advancements in the technology and the wide range of possible future demand. Finally, the deployment of novel battery technologies that are still in the development stage could reduce the demand for critical raw materials and require the partial or total redesign of production and recycling facilities affecting the investment needed for each factory.

KNOWCON 2022. Knowledge on Economics and Management: Conference Proceedings

“…Raising adoption of electric vehicles may possibly bring several benefits, especially reduction of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. The future raise of electric vehicle market is, however, dependent on the battery industry capacity to cover the future increased demand for electric vehicles (Usai et al, 2020).…”

“…It is therefore very important to quantify likely future Li-ion batteries demand in order to ensure the adequate supply of raw materials and batteries. Li-ion batteries evolve rapidly from technological and also economic standpoint, what can potentially create following challenges: (1) the need for capital investment into the manufacturing facilities, (2) potential rapid increase of demand for primary materials causing a mining activities ramp-up, (3) the need for higher number of recycling plants which can reduce the mining of primary materials, by processing the outflows of Li-ion batteries reaching their end of life (Usai et al, 2020).…”

“…Low-penetration scenario would result in 40-80 billion USD invested. High-penetration scenarios thus mean higher manufacturing capacity that allows for future cost reductions stemming from increased know-how and economies of scale (Usai et al, 2020).…”

Comparative study of Li-ion 18650 cylindrical cell under pinch indentation

“…Lithium-ion batteries are used to power portable electronics and are also used in electrified vehicles [1], where different vehicle types can be mentioned: EV (electric vehicles), EREV (Range-extended electric vehicle), SHEV (series hybrid electric vehicles), PHEV (parallel hybrid electric vehicles), SPHEV (series-parallel hybrid electric vehicles).…”

Effect of Preload Force on the Performance of Dual‐Electrolyte Li‐Air Batteries

“…Traditional lithium‐ion batteries (LIBs) have been limited for small energy density and high material costs in the last 30 years [1–5] . LABs not only have the advantages of high theoretical energy density and are friendly to the environment but also absorb O 2 from the environment to achieve reversible charging and discharging process, becoming one of the most promising choices of high‐energy density energy storage systems for new generation electric vehicles, have received great research attention of researchers in recent years [6–17] .…”