Global Recessions

Köse, M. Ayhan; Sugawara, Naotaka; Terrones, Marco E.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3535972

Cited by 18 publications

(21 citation statements)

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“…Since 1970, there have been five global recessions with their troughs in 1975Q1, 1982Q4, 1991Q1, and 2009Q1, and 2020Q2. These recessions were associated with a wide range of adverse developments, including financial crises in advanced economies and EMDEs (Kose, Sugawara, and Terrones 2020).…”

Section: Evolution Of Inflation During Global Recessionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inflation During the Pandemic: What Happened? What is Next?

Ha¹,

Köse

Ohnsorge³

2021

SSRN Journal

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We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model. We report three main results. First, the decline in global inflation during the 2020 global recession was the most muted and shortest-lived of any of the five global recessions over the past 50 years and the increase in inflation since May 2020 has been the fastest. Second, the decline in global inflation from January-May 2020 was four-fifths driven by the collapse in global demand and another one-fifth driven by plunging oil prices, with some offsetting inflationary pressures from supply disruptions. The subsequent surge in inflation has been mostly driven by a sharp increase in global demand. Third, both model-based forecasts and current inflation expectations point to an increase in inflation for 2021 of just over 1 percentage point. For virtually all advanced economies and onehalf of inflation-targeting emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), an increase of this magnitude would leave inflation within target ranges. If the increase is temporary and inflation expectations remain well-anchored, it may not warrant a monetary policy response. If, however, inflation expectations risk becoming unanchored, EMDE central banks may be compelled to tighten monetary policy before the recovery is fully entrenched.

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Section: Evolution Of Inflation During Global Recessionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inflation During the Pandemic: What Happened? What is Next?

Ha¹,

Köse

Ohnsorge³

2021

SSRN Journal

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“…Productivity growth in commodity importers and LICs has been more resilient, although the postcrisis slowdown has affected all regions. (1982, 1991, 1998, 2001, 2009, and 2012), as defined in Kose, Sugawara and Terrones (2020) and . C. Share of economies for which average productivity growth during 2013-18 was lower than the long-run average or the precrisis (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008) average.…”

Section: Figure 11 Evolution Of Global Productivity Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies

Dieppe

2020

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Productivity growth is the key driver of sustainable income growth and poverty reduction. Its effects on human welfare are enormous. While economists agree on the importance of productivity, its measurement and drivers remain elusive. We sometime refer to productivity as a "residual" or even as a "measure of our ignorance." This important book analyzes the trends and drivers of productivity growth, with a special focus on emerging and developing countries. It uses state-ofthe-art econometric techniques and brings together the analysis of a wide range of productivity drivers which, so far, have been analyzed in isolation. It also discusses the impact of COVID-19 on productivity growth. Reading this book will help in reducing our ignorance on the most important driver of human well-being.

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“…Since 1970, the global economy has witnessed seven oil price plunges when the unweighted average of Brent, Dubai and West Texas Intermediate oil prices, as reported in the World Bank's Pink Sheet, fell by 30 percent or more over a six -month period: 1985-86, 1990-91, 1997-98, 2000-01, 2008-09, 2014-16, and 2020. 5 All but two of them were associated with global slowdowns or recessions as reported by Kose, Sugawara, and Terrones (2020). Most of these collapses were accompanied by weakening global growth, which contributed to the decline in oil prices, and were followed by slow recoveries.…”

Section: Past Oil Price Collapses 21 Episodesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In fact, after demand-driven oil price collapses, the overall output responses in energy-exporting EMDEs was initially statistically insignificantly different from nil. This may reflect their greater ability to deploy fiscal and monetary policy stimulus to support their economies through global recessions and slowdowns (Auerbach and Gorodnichenko 2012;Kose, Sugawara, and Terrones 2020). In contrast, the response to supply-driven oil price collapses was statistically significantly more severe in energy-exporting than in other EMDEs.…”

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Implications of Cheap Oil for Emerging Markets

Kabundi¹,

Ohnsorge

2020

SSRN Journal

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The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

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Global Recessions

Cited by 18 publications

References 0 publications

Inflation During the Pandemic: What Happened? What is Next?

Inflation During the Pandemic: What Happened? What is Next?

Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies

Implications of Cheap Oil for Emerging Markets

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