Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Zhang, Yuqiang; Anenberg, Susan C.; Lamarque, Jean‐François; Shindell, D. T.; Collins, William; Dalsøren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G.; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, Steven T.; Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, Irene; Doherty, Ruth M.; Eyring, Veronika; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Plummer, David A.; Righi, Mattia; Stevenson, David S.; Strode, Sarah A.; Szopa, Sophie; Zeng, Guang

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034005

Cited by 426 publications

(330 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The CRFs that are used to estimate long-term premature mortality are uncertain. The loglinear function used here is based on epidemiological studies from North America (Pope III et al, 2002), resulting in greater uncertainty when these functions are extrapolated to other regions (Silva et al, 2013). However, epidemiological studies are not available for all regions, so global mortality estimates often use functions based on these North American studies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of residential combustion emissions on atmospheric aerosol, human health, and climate

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Combustion of fuels in the residential sector for cooking and heating results in the emission of aerosol and aerosol precursors impacting air quality, human health, and climate. Residential emissions are dominated by the combustion of solid fuels. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to simulate the impact of residential fuel combustion on atmospheric aerosol for the year 2000. The model underestimates black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) mass concentrations observed over Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa, with better prediction when carbonaceous emissions from the residential sector are doubled. Observed seasonal variability of BC and OC concentrations are better simulated when residential emissions include a seasonal cycle. The largest contributions of residential emissions to annual surface mean particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations are simulated for East Asia, South Asia, and Eastern Europe. We use a concentration response function to estimate the human health impact due to long-term exposure to ambient PM 2.5 from residential emissions. We estimate global annual excess adult (> 30 years of age) premature mortality (due to both cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer) to be 308 000 (113 300-497 000, 5th to 95th percentile uncertainty range) for monthly varying residential emissions and 517 000 (192 000-827 000) when residential carbonaceous emissions are doubled. Mortality due to residential emissions is greatest in Asia, with China and India accounting for 50 % of simulated global excess mortality. Using an offline radiative transfer model we estimate that residential emissions exert a global annual mean direct radiative effect between −66 and +21 mW m −2 , with sensitivity to the residential emission flux and the assumed ratio of BC, OC, and SO 2 emissions. Residential emissions exert a global annual mean first aerosol indirect effect of between −52 and −16 mW m −2 , which is sensitive to the assumed size distribution of carbonaceous emissions. Overall, our results demonstrate that reducing residential combustion emissions would have substantial benefits for human health through reductions in ambient PM 2.5 concentrations.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of residential combustion emissions on atmospheric aerosol, human health, and climate

et al. 2016

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“…Silva et al, 2013;Anenberg et al, 2009;Lim et al, 2012;Brauer et al, 2012). The OECD (OECD, 2012) have stated that "without new policies, by 2050, air pollution is set to become the world's top environmental cause of premature mortality".…”

Section: P S Monks Et Al: Tropospheric Ozone and Its Precursorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

et al. 2015

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Abstract. Ozone holds a certain fascination in atmospheric science. It is ubiquitous in the atmosphere, central to tropospheric oxidation chemistry, yet harmful to human and ecosystem health as well as being an important greenhouse gas. It is not emitted into the atmosphere but is a byproduct of the very oxidation chemistry it largely initiates. Much effort is focused on the reduction of surface levels of ozone owing to its health and vegetation impacts, but recent efforts to achieve reductions in exposure at a country scale have proved difficult to achieve owing to increases in background ozone at the zonal hemispheric scale. There is also a growing realisation that the role of ozone as a short-lived climate pollutant could be important in integrated air quality climate change mitigation. This review examines current understanding of the processes regulating tropospheric ozone at global to local scales from both measurements and models. It takes the view that knowledge across the scales is important for dealing with air quality and climate change in a synergistic manner. The review shows that there remain a number of clear challenges for ozone such as explaining surface trends, incorporating new chemical understanding, ozone-climate coupling, and a better assessment of impacts. There is a clear and present need to treat ozone across the range of scales, a transboundary issue, but with an emphasis on the hemispheric scales. New observational opportunities are offered both by satellites and small sensors that bridge the scales.

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“…However, quantifying the adverse health effects of air pollution at the continental-scale requires atmospheric models (with resolutions ranging from ∼ 250 to 50 km) to simulate pollutant spatio-temporal distributions across these scales (e.g. West et al, 2009;Anenberg et al, 2010;Fang et al, 2013;Silva et al, 2013;Lelieveld et al, 2015;Malley et al, 2017). Amongst a number of factors, simulated air pollutant concentrations may vary depending on the three-dimensional chemistry model used, its set-up and the model resolution (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments

et al. 2018

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Abstract. We examine the impact of model horizontal resolution on simulated concentrations of surface ozone (O 3 ) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM 2.5 ), and the associated health impacts over Europe, using the HadGEM3-UKCA chemistry-climate model to simulate pollutant concentrations at a coarse (∼ 140 km) and a finer (∼ 50 km) resolution. The attributable fraction (AF) of total mortality due to long-term exposure to warm season daily maximum 8 h running mean (MDA8) O 3 and annual-average PM 2.5 concentrations is then calculated for each European country using pollutant concentrations simulated at each resolution. Our results highlight a seasonal variation in simulated O 3 and PM 2.5 differences between the two model resolutions in Europe. Compared to the finer resolution results, simulated European O 3 concentrations at the coarse resolution are higher on average in winter and spring (∼ 10 and ∼ 6 %, respectively). In contrast, simulated O 3 concentrations at the coarse resolution are lower in summer and autumn (∼ −1 and ∼ −4 %, respectively). These differences may be partly explained by differences in nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) concentrations simulated at the two resolutions. Compared to O 3 , we find the opposite seasonality in simulated PM 2.5 differences between the two resolutions. In winter and spring, simulated PM 2.5 concentrations are lower at the coarse compared to the finer resolution (∼ −8 and ∼ −6 %, respectively) but higher in summer and autumn (∼ 29 and ∼ 8 %, respectively). Simulated PM 2.5 values are also mostly related to differences in convective rainfall between the two resolutions for all seasons. These differences between the two resolutions exhibit clear spatial patterns for both pollutants that vary by season, and exert a strong influence on country to country variations in estimated AF for the two resolutions. Warm season MDA8 O 3 levels are higher in most of southern Europe, but lower in areas of northern and eastern Europe when simulated at the coarse resolution compared to the finer resolution. Annual-average PM 2.5 concentrations are higher across most of northern and eastern Europe but lower over parts of southwest Europe at the coarse compared to the finer resolution. Across Europe, differences in the AF associated with long-term exposure to population-weighted MDA8 O 3 range between −0.9 and +2.6 % (largest positive differences in southern Europe), while differences in the AF associated with long-term exposure to populationweighted annual mean PM 2.5 range from −4.7 to +2.8 % (largest positive differences in eastern Europe) of the total mortality. Therefore this study, with its unique focus on Europe, demonstrates that health impact assessments calculated using modelled pollutant concentrations, are sensitive to a change in model resolution by up to ∼ ±5 % of the total mortality across Europe.

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Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change

Cited by 426 publications

References 28 publications

The impact of residential combustion emissions on atmospheric aerosol, human health, and climate

The impact of residential combustion emissions on atmospheric aerosol, human health, and climate

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

The influence of model spatial resolution on simulated ozone and fine particulate matter for Europe: implications for health impact assessments

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