Global premature mortality by dust and pollution PM2.5 estimated from aerosol reanalysis of the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2

Abstract

This study quantifies global premature deaths attributable to long-term exposure of ambient PM 2.5 , or PM 2.5 -attributable mortality, by dust and pollution sources. We used NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol reanalysis product for PM 2.5 and the cause-specific relative risk (RR) from the integrated exposureresponse (IER) model to estimate global PM 2.5 -attributable mortality for five causes of deaths, namely ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEV) or stroke, lung cancer (LC), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI). The estimated yearly global PM 2.5 -attributable mortality in 2019 amounts to 2.89 (1.38-4.48) millions, which is composed of 1.19 (0.73-1.84) million from IHD, 1.01 (0.35-1.55) million from CEV, 0.29 (0.11-0.48) million from COPD, 0.23 (0.14-0.33) million from ALRI, and 0.17 (0.04-0.28) million from LC (the numbers in parentheses represent the estimated mortality range due corresponding to RR spread at the 95% confidence interval). The mortality counts vary with geopolitical regions substantially, with the highest number of deaths occurring in Asia. China and India account for 40% and 23% of the global PM 2.5 -attributable deaths, respectively. In terms of sources of PM 2.5 , about 22% of the global all-cause PM 2.5 -attributable deaths are caused by desert dust. The largest dust attribution is 37% for ALRI. The relative contributions of dust and pollution sources vary with the causes of deaths and geographical regions. Enforcing air pollution regulations to transfer areas from PM 2.5 nonattainment to PM 2.5 attainment can have great health benefits. Being attainable with the United States air quality standard (AQS) of 15 μg/m 3 globally would have avoided nearly 40% or 1.2 million premature deaths. The most recent update of PM 2.5 guideline from 10 to 5 μg/m 3 by the World Health Organization (WHO) would

Statistical bias correction for CESM-simulated PM2.5

“…Nitrate aerosol is not simulated in the MAM output we have, but it can be important on regional scales, especially in East Asia (Li et al 2015), where it is expected to be increasingly important in the future due to reductions in sulfur dioxide and increases in nitrogen-oxides emissions. Dust aerosols span a broad size range from 0.058 mm to 3.65 mm (dry particle diameter), and the use of geometric diameter rather than aerodynamic diameter in MAM3 may overestimate the contribution of dust aerosols to the total PM 2.5 (Yang et al 2022). The proportions of aerosols in different size ranges will be affected by physical and chemical reactions, such as coagulation, and also temperature, humidity and ultraviolet radiation, which will not be perfectly simulated by CESM.…”

Energy, Forests and Environmental Sustainability: A Comparative Analysis of Developed and Developing Economies

“…Brunekreef and Holgate (2002) found the direct impact of pollution ingredients on air and child mortality. Yang et al (2022) found that PM2.5 caused 2.89 million deaths in 2019. Cheryl (2022) reported that pollution kills 9 million people every year.…”

Increased atmospheric PM2.5 events due to open waste burning in Qaanaaq, Greenland, summer of 2022

“…Mortality rates due to ambient air pollution increased to 4.2 million in 2019, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) (https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health). A recent study estimated 2.89 million premature deaths globally due to PM 2.5 in 2019, with China and India accounting for 40% and 23% of these deaths, respectively (Yang et al, 2022). Lelieveld et al (2015) projected that these mortality rates could double by 2050 compared with those estimated for 2010.…”