Global Liquidity and Commodity Prices

Kang, Hyunju; Yu, Bok-Keun; Yu, Jongmin

doi:10.1111/roie.12204

Cited by 23 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…China has exhibited a rapid growth in its money supply during the last decade, especially in the period after 2008 economic crisis. 6 Previous studies show that increasing money supply may result in appreciation in commodity prices (Frankel, 1986;Saghaian et al, 2002;Kang et al, 2016). For instance, Frankel (1986) In an increasingly inter-linked global market, booms in the domestic market may be due to rising international trade.…”

Section: Agricultural Commodity Price Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Commodity price bubbles and macroeconomics: evidence from the Chinese agricultural markets

Chavas

Etienne

et al. 2017

Agricultural Economics

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This paper investigates the linkages between commodity price bubbles and macroeconomic factors, with an application to agricultural commodity markets in China from 2006 to 2014. Price bubbles are identified using a newly-developed recursive righttailed unit root test. A Zero-inflated Poisson Model is used to analyze the factors contributing to bubbles. Results show that a) there were speculative bubbles in most of the Chinese agricultural commodities during the sample period, though their presences are rather infrequent; b) economic growth, money supply and inflation have positive effects on bubble occurrences, while interest rate has a negative effect; c) among all macroeconomic factors considered, economic growth and money supply have the greatest effects on bubble occurrences. Our findings shed new light on the nature and formation of bubble behavior in the Chinese agricultural commodity markets.

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Section: Agricultural Commodity Price Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Commodity price bubbles and macroeconomics: evidence from the Chinese agricultural markets

Chavas

Etienne

et al. 2017

Agricultural Economics

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“…The impacts caused by the external uncertainties on the food production sector are mainly reflected in the impacts on the cost, inventory, production strategy, support services and financial risks of food production enterprises (including agri-products processing enterprises and food manufacturing enterprises) [ 66 , 67 , 68 ], which lead to the instability of food supply, price fluctuation and decrease of profits for enterprises. The risks in this sector can be divided into two categories according to the source: one is the direct impact of the external uncertainties on the food production sector, and the other is the transmission of impacts of the external uncertainties on the primary agri-products supply sector ( Figure 3 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Impacts of External Uncertainties on the Stability of the Food Supply Chain: Evidence from China

Song

2022

Foods

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The food supply chain operates in a complex and dynamic external environment, and the external uncertainties from natural and socio-economic environment pose great challenges to the development of the food industry. In particular, the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict have further exacerbated the vulnerability of the global food supply chain. Analyzing the dynamic impacts of external uncertainties on the stability of food supply chain is central to guaranteeing the sustainable security of food supply. Based on the division of food supply chain and the classification of external uncertainties, the TVP-FAVAR-SV model was constructed to explore the dynamic impacts of external uncertainties on food supply chain. It was found that the impacts of external uncertainty elements were significantly different, the combination of different external uncertainty elements aggravated or reduced the risks of food supply chain. And some uncertainty elements had both positive and negative impacts in the whole sample period, as the magnitude and direction of the impacts of various uncertainties in different periods had time-varying characteristics.

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“…Choi et al (2017) find that global liquidity from advanced countries affects financial markets and currencies of emerging market economies, and also boosts their economic growth. Kang et al (2016) find that the effects of global liquidity on commodity prices are more salient since the great financial crisis. Figure 1 also contains a plot of the liquidity of the BRICS and the US.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Disentangling Commodity Demand, Commodity Supply, and International Liquidity Shocks on An Emerging Market

Fry-McKibbin

Souza

2020

SSRN Journal

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This paper examines the effects of commodity demand and supply shocks as well as international liquidity shocks on the small open economy of Brazil using an SVAR model. The paper highlights the importance of modeling both types of shocks in the commodity sector. Including only commodity prices overstates the effect of commodity price shocks on the output of Brazil. Commodity demand shocks are much larger than commodity supply shocks in the long run. Including commodity demand and international liquidity also reduces the impact of commodity price shocks on the interest rate made available to Brazil in international capital markets. The interest rate channel is considered a source of business cycles for emerging market economies in the literature. AbstractThis paper examines the effects of commodity demand and supply shocks as well as international liquidity shocks on the small open economy of Brazil using an SVAR model. The paper highlights the importance of modeling both types of shocks in the commodity sector. Including only commodity prices overstates the effect of commodity price shocks on the output of Brazil. Commodity demand shocks are much larger than commodity supply shocks in the long run. Including commodity demand and international liquidity also reduces the impact of commodity price shocks on the interest rate made available to Brazil in international capital markets. The interest rate channel is considered a source of business cycles for emerging market economies in the literature.

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Global Liquidity and Commodity Prices

Cited by 23 publications

References 32 publications

Commodity price bubbles and macroeconomics: evidence from the Chinese agricultural markets

Commodity price bubbles and macroeconomics: evidence from the Chinese agricultural markets

Dynamic Impacts of External Uncertainties on the Stability of the Food Supply Chain: Evidence from China

Disentangling Commodity Demand, Commodity Supply, and International Liquidity Shocks on An Emerging Market

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