Dynamic Impacts of External Uncertainties on the Stability of the Food Supply Chain: Evidence from China

Abstract

The food supply chain operates in a complex and dynamic external environment, and the external uncertainties from natural and socio-economic environment pose great challenges to the development of the food industry. In particular, the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict have further exacerbated the vulnerability of the global food supply chain. Analyzing the dynamic impacts of external uncertainties on the stability of food supply chain is central to guaranteeing the sustainable security of food supply. Based on the division of food supply chain and the classification of external uncertainties, the TVP-FAVAR-SV model was constructed to explore the dynamic impacts of external uncertainties on food supply chain. It was found that the impacts of external uncertainty elements were significantly different, the combination of different external uncertainty elements aggravated or reduced the risks of food supply chain. And some uncertainty elements had both positive and negative impacts in the whole sample period, as the magnitude and direction of the impacts of various uncertainties in different periods had time-varying characteristics.

Examining the dynamic and nonlinear impacts of public health events on the resilience of food supply chain: evidence from China

“…The focus of this paper is to explore the impacts of PHEs on each sector of the food supply chain. Referring to Li and Song (2022) for the selection of PHEs, it took the number of deaths caused by national notifiable diseases (Class A and B) and zoonotic infectious diseases as the proxy variable for PHEs. National notifiable diseases (Class A and B) include 30 infectious diseases such as COVID-19, SARS and H1N1, and zoonotic infectious diseases include 29, such as BSE, rabies and anthrax.…”

“…The risk of the food supply chain is an extension of the general supply chain risk, which comes from the uncertainty of its internal composition and external environment (Diabat et al, 2012). The external uncertainty of PHEs, in particular, has serious and unpredictable impacts on food supply chain (Li and Song, 2022). Recently, PHEs caused frequent disruptions of the food supply chain.…”

“…The importance of China's food safety to global food supply system in the context of PHEs is self-evident, and the research on the impacts of PHEs on the safety of China's food supply chain is of great practical significance. In analyzing the impacts of PHEs on the resilience of the food supply chain, existing research mainly uses phenomenology, assessment, statistics and simulation methods, especially event analysis, which includes phenomenology and assessment, has been widely applied (Li and Song, 2022;Perdana et al, 2022). However, due to the heterogeneity, nonlinearity, and timevarying nature of PHEs' impacts, the common test method and time series model cannot meet the requirements of the analysis (Swinnen and Mcdermott, 2020;Li and Song, 2022;Azevedo et al, 2023), which may lead to a weakening of evaluation effectiveness.…”

“…In analyzing the impacts of PHEs on the resilience of the food supply chain, existing research mainly uses phenomenology, assessment, statistics and simulation methods, especially event analysis, which includes phenomenology and assessment, has been widely applied (Li and Song, 2022;Perdana et al, 2022). However, due to the heterogeneity, nonlinearity, and timevarying nature of PHEs' impacts, the common test method and time series model cannot meet the requirements of the analysis (Swinnen and Mcdermott, 2020;Li and Song, 2022;Azevedo et al, 2023), which may lead to a weakening of evaluation effectiveness. Therefore, selecting appropriate research methods and approaches is crucial for a deeper learning of the impacts of PHEs on the resilience of food supply chain.…”

Threshold effects of green technology application on sustainable grain production: Evidence from China

“…From Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) proposed by the United Nations to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the focus of food security has shifted from extreme poverty and hunger to food security and nutrition improvement within the framework of sustainable agriculture ( UN, 2001 ; UN, 2015 ; Clapp et al., 2022 ). However, shocks from pandemics, conflicts, natural disasters, climate change, and energy crisis have intensified the risk of global food insecurity ( FSIN, 2022 ; Li and Song, 2022 ), further frustrating the progress of SDGs 1 and SDGs 2 ( FAO et al., 2022 ).…”