Global Incidence and Mortality Rate of COVID-19; Special Focus on Iran, Italy and China

Abstract

<jats:p> <jats:bold>Background:</jats:bold> Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a new coronavirus, was diagnosed in China in December 2019. Around the globe, a total of 71429 were infected up to February 17, 2020, with 98.9% of cases in China. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) characterized the COVID-19 as ‘<jats:italic>pandemic</jats:italic>’. Rapid positive worldwide incidence was the motivation behind this study to investigate the incidence and mortality globally. <jats:bold>Methods:</jats:bold> We used the data published by the WHO until March 9, 2020. Non-parametric tests and change point analysis were used for inferences. <jats:bold>Results:</jats:bold> Change point analysis for Iran and China and the world excluding China for the first 20 days revealed around 78, 195 and 2 further new cases per day, respectively. Italy had a big jump in incidence on the 36<jats:sup>th</jats:sup> day. Similarly, a sharp rise of positive cases was reported for the world on the 35<jats:sup>th</jats:sup> day. China successfully controlled the ascending reports of incidence on the 23rd day. Mortality in China and the world were almost similar for the first 20 days. There was an ascending incidence trend with two change points in Italy (30<jats:sup>th</jats:sup> and 36<jats:sup>th</jats:sup> days) and one change point in Iran on the 17<jats:sup>th</jats:sup> day. Mortality in the world jumped remarkably after day 42 with an estimation of almost more than 25 deaths per day. <jats:bold>Conclusion:</jats:bold> The incidence of COVID-19 varied by regions; however, after March 11, it became ‘pandemic’. It was observed that after about 6 days with an emergence of sharp increase in incidences, there would be a mutation in mortality rate. On the other hand, the importance of ‘on-time’ quarantine programs in controlling this virus was confirmed.</jats:p>

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