Global hunger and climate change adaptation through international trade

Janssens, Charlotte; Havlík, Petr; Krisztin, Tamás; Baker, Justin; Frank, Stefan; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Leclère, David; Ohrel, Sara; Ragnauth, Shaun; Schmid, Erwin; Valin, Hugo; Lipzig, Nicole Van; Maertens, Miet

doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0847-4

Cited by 145 publications

(100 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…Amid such climate-change driven disruptions of food systems, the pressure of both COVID-19 and local outbreaks on food consumption may be intensified by lower harvests and higher food prices in Group 1 countries, as well as across a wider community of developing economies. Mouloudj et al [128] and Janssens et al [148] expect developing countries of Africa and Asia in which agriculture contributes significantly to GDP (Sierra Leone, Chad, Niger, Mali, Cambodia, and Vietnam) to be affected by both climate and economic effects of the pandemic (suspension of agricultural activities, agricultural labor lockdowns, etc.). According to the FAO estimates [146], over 14 million people in Africa in 2020 need urgent food assistance, including 7 million in Nigeria, 2.1 million in Burkina Faso, 2 million in Niger, 1.3 million in Mali and Sierra Leone, and 1 million in Chad.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing Countries

Erokhin

Tianming

2020

IJERPH

212

173

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The stability of food supply chains is crucial to the food security of people around the world. Since the beginning of 2020, this stability has been undergoing one of the most vigorous pressure tests ever due to the COVID-19 outbreak. From a mere health issue, the pandemic has turned into an economic threat to food security globally in the forms of lockdowns, economic decline, food trade restrictions, and rising food inflation. It is safe to assume that the novel health crisis has badly struck the least developed and developing economies, where people are particularly vulnerable to hunger and malnutrition. However, due to the recency of the COVID-19 problem, the impacts of macroeconomic fluctuations on food insecurity have remained scantily explored. In this study, the authors attempted to bridge this gap by revealing interactions between the food security status of people and the dynamics of COVID-19 cases, food trade, food inflation, and currency volatilities. The study was performed in the cases of 45 developing economies distributed to three groups by the level of income. The consecutive application of the autoregressive distributed lag method, Yamamoto’s causality test, and variance decomposition analysis allowed the authors to find the food insecurity effects of COVID-19 to be more perceptible in upper-middle-income economies than in the least developed countries. In the latter, food security risks attributed to the emergence of the health crisis were mainly related to economic access to adequate food supply (food inflation), whereas in higher-income developing economies, availability-sided food security risks (food trade restrictions and currency depreciation) were more prevalent. The approach presented in this paper contributes to the establishment of a methodology framework that may equip decision-makers with up-to-date estimations of health crisis effects on economic parameters of food availability and access to staples in food-insecure communities.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing Countries

Erokhin

Tianming

2020

IJERPH

212

173

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“…Although conventional breeding has a short history, improved irrigation systems, mechanization, the introduction of genetically improved varieties, and the usage of fertilizers and pesticides in agriculture led to increased global crop yields of 56 % between 1965−85, known as the Green Revolution. Global climate extremes, such as drought, flooding, extreme temperatures, and intensifying incidence of pests and diseases, especially during the last 40 years, have had a serious impact on agriculture and threaten the livelihoods of agricultural producers and the food security of communities ( IFPRI, 2019 ; Janssens et al, 2020 ). In 2019 alone, 144 million children under 5 years of age were estimated to be stunted and 340 million children suffered from micronutrient deficiencies ( http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/ ) and numbers are expected to be worse for 2020 ( https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/forecast-2020-financial-meltdown-and-malnutrition# :∼:text=Globally%2C%2016%20million%20more%20children,to%20one%2Dfourth%20in%202020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genomic resources in plant breeding for sustainable agriculture

Thudi

Ramesh

Schnable

et al. 2021

Journal of Plant Physiology

102

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Climate change during the last 40 years has had a serious impact on agriculture and threatens global food and nutritional security. From over half a million plant species, cereals and legumes are the most important for food and nutritional security. Although systematic plant breeding has a relatively short history, conventional breeding coupled with advances in technology and crop management strategies has increased crop yields by 56 % globally between 1965−85, referred to as the Green Revolution. Nevertheless, increased demand for food, feed, fiber, and fuel necessitates the need to break existing yield barriers in many crop plants. In the first decade of the 21st century we witnessed rapid discovery, transformative technological development and declining costs of genomics technologies. In the second decade, the field turned towards making sense of the vast amount of genomic information and subsequently moved towards accurately predicting gene-to-phenotype associations and tailoring plants for climate resilience and global food security. In this review we focus on genomic resources, genome and germplasm sequencing, sequencing-based trait mapping, and genomics-assisted breeding approaches aimed at developing biotic stress resistant, abiotic stress tolerant and high nutrition varieties in six major cereals (rice, maize, wheat, barley, sorghum and pearl millet), and six major legumes (soybean, groundnut, cowpea, common bean, chickpea and pigeonpea). We further provide a perspective and way forward to use genomic breeding approaches including marker-assisted selection, marker-assisted backcrossing, haplotype based breeding and genomic prediction approaches coupled with machine learning and artificial intelligence, to speed breeding approaches. The overall goal is to accelerate genetic gains and deliver climate resilient and high nutrition crop varieties for sustainable agriculture.

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“…The analysis of data from ground stations and satellites showed that the mean surface temperature of the world has increased by about 0.6 degrees Celsius over the 20 th century (Lindzen andGiannitsis, 2002, Tapley et al, 2019). The warmest years ever have all occurred since 1980 in this century (Janssens et al, 2020). The warmest recorded year was 1998 (Mann et al, 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Extreme Temperature Variability in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Mohamed¹,

El-Mahdy²

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. In this paper, spatial and temporal patterns of changes in extreme temperatures are investigated using 10 meteorological stations data for the period 1950–2018 in the Blue Nile basin. Monthly temperature data for the basin were used in the study. Long-term trends in the Blue Nile Basin annual and monthly temperatures were investigated. The statistical significance of the trend is calculated by applying the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. The analysis of data was performed using the coefficient of variance, anomaly index. The results showed that the annual maximum and minimum temperature is increasing significantly with a magnitude of 0.037° and 0.025 °C per decade respectively in the period from 1950–2018. The result of the Mann-Kendall analysis test revealed a marked increase in mean maximum and minimum temperatures trend over time significantly during the study period (the minimum temperature rate is more evident than the maximum). The long-term anomalies of mean annual minimum temperature revealed the inter-annual variability while the trend after 1977 was higher than the long-term average that is proof of the warming trend existence since the last two decades of the 20th century.

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Global hunger and climate change adaptation through international trade

Abstract: Building on a previous study 24 , we used ten climate change and six trade scenarios, and analysed hunger effects at the global and regional levels. Four RCPs (2.6 W m −2 , 4.5 W m −2 , 6.0 W m −2 and 8.5 W m −2

Cited by 145 publications

References 61 publications

Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing Countries

Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing Countries

Genomic resources in plant breeding for sustainable agriculture

Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Extreme Temperature Variability in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

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