Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing Countries

Abstract

The stability of food supply chains is crucial to the food security of people around the world. Since the beginning of 2020, this stability has been undergoing one of the most vigorous pressure tests ever due to the COVID-19 outbreak. From a mere health issue, the pandemic has turned into an economic threat to food security globally in the forms of lockdowns, economic decline, food trade restrictions, and rising food inflation. It is safe to assume that the novel health crisis has badly struck the least developed and developing economies, where people are particularly vulnerable to hunger and malnutrition. However, due to the recency of the COVID-19 problem, the impacts of macroeconomic fluctuations on food insecurity have remained scantily explored. In this study, the authors attempted to bridge this gap by revealing interactions between the food security status of people and the dynamics of COVID-19 cases, food trade, food inflation, and currency volatilities. The study was performed in the cases of 45 developing economies distributed to three groups by the level of income. The consecutive application of the autoregressive distributed lag method, Yamamoto’s causality test, and variance decomposition analysis allowed the authors to find the food insecurity effects of COVID-19 to be more perceptible in upper-middle-income economies than in the least developed countries. In the latter, food security risks attributed to the emergence of the health crisis were mainly related to economic access to adequate food supply (food inflation), whereas in higher-income developing economies, availability-sided food security risks (food trade restrictions and currency depreciation) were more prevalent. The approach presented in this paper contributes to the establishment of a methodology framework that may equip decision-makers with up-to-date estimations of health crisis effects on economic parameters of food availability and access to staples in food-insecure communities.

Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis

“…In order to gain insights towards the linkages in stock markets during COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, we will use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model similar Albulescu [37,38], Erokhin and Gao [4], as well as Granger causality test alike Mamaysky [88]. Checking for unit root in ARDL approach is not fundamental in as much as it can examine for the occurrence of cointegration among a set of variables of order I(0) or I(1) or a mixture of them.…”

“…Both supply and demand reductions occur since individuals work and consume lower, whereas companies diminish their productivity and investment [3]. Hence, Erokhin and Gao [4] explored 45 developing states and established that food security status of individuals and the strength of food supply chains are impacted by Consequently, governments have taken unprecedented actions, respectively fiscal measures figuring to around $8 trillion, whereas central banks injected liquidity getting up to over $6 trillion [5]. The IMF has implemented exceptional measures by doubling its emergency loaning volume to $100 billion and deferring debt outflows for poor nations [6].…”

Economic Growth, Investment, Population Growth and Unemployment in Ethiopia

“…Food prices have increased dramatically because of movement restrictions and border closures. However, according to [26], "the impact of COVID-19 on food insecurity is much weaker compared to that in upper-middleincome countries". Globally, food insecurity is becoming a very serious issue, challenging the economic development of the world.…”

Corona-Triggered Global Macroeconomic Crisis of the Early 2020s

“…These epidemiological and more or less well-grounded textbook measures were extended to encircle areas of societal, economic activity far beyond initially targeted groups of citizens at risk. Large masses of cargo transportation hubs were brought to a halt, limiting not only the flux of passengers but also international trade [ 25 ]. First to suffer were all sorts of hospitality industries ranging from hotel chains and restaurants to spa and luxury travel facilities [ 26 ].…”