Global hotspots of coherent marine fishery catches

Abstract

Although different fisheries can be tightly linked to each other by human and ecosystem processes, they are often managed independently. Synchronous fluctuations among fish populations or fishery catches can destabilize ecosystems and economies, respectively, but the degree of synchrony around the world remains unclear. We analyzed 1,092 marine fisheries catch time series over 60 yr to test for the presence of coherence, a form of synchrony that allows for phase-lagged relationships. We found that nearly every fishery was coherent with at least one other fishery catch time series globally and that coherence was strongest in the northeast Atlantic, western central Pacific, and eastern Indian Ocean. Analysis of fish biomass and fishing mortality time series from these hotspots revealed that coherence in biomass or fishing mortality were both possible, though biomass coherence was more common. Most of these relationships were synchronous with no time lags, and across catches in all regions, synchrony was a better predictor of regional catch portfolio effects than catch diversity. Regions with higher synchrony had lower stability in aggregate fishery catches, which can have negative consequences for food security and economic wealth.