Projecting climate change impacts from physics to fisheries: A view from three California Current fisheries

Smith, James A.; Buil, Mercedes Pozo; Muhling, Barbara A.; Tommasi, Désirée; Brodie, Stephanie; Frawley, Timothy H.; Fiechter, Jérôme; Koenigstein, Stefan; Himes‐Cornell, Amber; Alexander, Michael A.; Bograd, Steven J.; Quirós, Nathalí Cordero; Crowder, Larry B.; Curchitser, Enrique N.; Green, Stephanie; Hardy, Natasha; Haynie, Alan C.; Hazen, Elliott L.; Holsman, Kirstin K.; Fol, Gwendal Le; Lezama-Ochoa, Nerea; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Stock, Charles A.; Stohs, Stephen M.; Sweeney, Jonathan; Welch, Heather; Jacox, Michael G.

doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2023.102973

Cited by 10 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 127 publications

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“…Climate change is expected to impact species distributions, altering the locations of profitable fishing grounds, fisheries impacts on protected species and ecosystem services (Grose et al., 2020; Pinsky et al., 2021). While some of these species' shifts are expected to trigger economic losses, others are likely to create new fishing opportunities for local communities (Kleisner et al., 2017; Smith et al., 2023). Both of these potential future scenarios may increase fishing conflicts via distribution of new quotas and allocation rights (Hazen et al., 2013; Karp et al., 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Species distribution projections encompass uncertainty associated with the scenario or climate model used and the parameters and species distribution model integrated (Brodie et al., 2022; Morley et al., 2018). We used three downscaled ESMs (GFDL, HAD, IPSL) under one climate change scenario (RCP8.5) to encompass such uncertainty but there are potential areas for expansion to strengthen the analysis, such as including additional climate models, multiple scenarios and multiple species distribution models and other ecological models (Karp et al., 2019; Pecl et al., 2017; Smith et al., 2023). The future use of the CMIP6 model for modelling species distributions is also highly recommended.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…California Current System, centre of gravity, climate change, downscaled ocean projections, earth system model, habitat suitability index, species distribution model management and conservation strategies under current, past or future environmental conditions (Free et al, 2020;Hazen et al, 2018). A number of SDMs have been applied to predict target, bycatch and protected marine species distributions in the CCS (Smith et al, 2023). There is an increasing need to understand the impacts and consequences of HMS responses to changing conditions in the CCS at a regional scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Divergent responses of highly migratory species to climate change in the California Current

Lezama‐Ochoa,

Brodie,

Welch

et al. 2023

Diversity and Distributions

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AimMarine biodiversity faces unprecedented threats from anthropogenic climate change. Ecosystem responses to climate change have exhibited substantial variability in the direction and magnitude of redistribution, posing challenges for developing effective climate‐adaptive marine management strategies.LocationThe California Current Ecosystem (CCE), USA.MethodsWe project suitable habitat for 10 highly migratory species in the California Current System using an ensemble of three high‐resolution (~10 km) downscaled ocean projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Spanning the period from 1980 to 2100, our analysis focuses on assessing the direction and distance of distributional shifts, as well as changes in core habitat area for each species.ResultsOur findings reveal a divergent response among species to climate impacts. Specifically, four species were projected to undergo significant poleward shifts exceeding 100 km, and gain habitat (~7%–60%) in response to climate change. Conversely, six species were projected to shift towards the coast, resulting in a loss of habitat ranging from 10% to 66% by the end of the century. These divergent responses could typically be characterized by the mode of thermoregulation (i.e. ectotherm vs. endotherm) and species' affiliations with cool and productive upwelled waters that are characteristic of the region. Furthermore, our study highlights an increase in niche overlap between protected species and those targeted by fisheries, which may lead to increased human interaction events under climate change.Main ConclusionsBy providing valuable species distribution projections, our research contributes to the understanding of climate change effects on marine biodiversity and offers critical insight and support for developing climate‐ready management of protected and fished species.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Divergent responses of highly migratory species to climate change in the California Current

Lezama‐Ochoa,

Brodie,

Welch

et al. 2023

Diversity and Distributions

Self Cite

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“…Consequently, characterizing and predicting variation in species distributions over time is often an important objective for scientists and managers (Currie et al, 2019;Karp et al, 2019;Smith et al, 2023). While distributional changes can be discerned from longterm fisheries-independent monitoring datasets, identifying coherent patterns and drivers behind such shifts can be difficult.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As the oceans warm, many mobile marine taxa are shifting their distributions beyond their historical ranges (Nye et al, 2009; Perry et al, 2005; Pinsky et al, 2013), posing challenges to fisheries monitoring and management (Link et al, 2011; Pinsky et al, 2018). Consequently, characterizing and predicting variation in species distributions over time is often an important objective for scientists and managers (Currie et al, 2019; Karp et al, 2019; Smith et al, 2023). While distributional changes can be discerned from long‐term fisheries‐independent monitoring datasets, identifying coherent patterns and drivers behind such shifts can be difficult.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterizing dominant patterns of spatiotemporal variation for a transboundary groundfish assemblage

DeFilippo

Thorson

O'Leary

et al. 2023

Fisheries Oceanography

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Many mobile marine taxa are changing their distributions in response to climate change. Such movements pose a challenge to fisheries monitoring and management, particularly in systems where climate‐adaptive and ecosystem‐based management objectives are emphasized. While shifts in species distributions can be discerned from long‐term fisheries‐independent monitoring data, distilling coherent patterns across space and time from such datasets can be challenging, particularly for transboundary stocks. One approach for identifying dominant patterns of spatiotemporal variation that has been widely used in physical atmospheric and oceanographic studies is empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, wherein spatiotemporal variation is separated into time‐series of annual factor loadings and spatial response maps. Here, we apply an extension of EOF analysis that has been modified for compatibility with biological sampling data to a combined US–Russian fisheries‐independent survey dataset that spans the eastern (United States) and western (Russia) Bering Sea shelf to estimate dominant patterns of spatiotemporal variation for 10 groundfish species at a shelf‐wide scale. EOF identified one axis of variability that was coherent with the extent of cold (≤0°C) near‐bottom waters (the cold pool) previously shown to be a key influence on species distributions and ecosystem structure for the Bering Sea. However, the leading axis of variability identified by our EOF analysis was characterized by low frequency changes in the distributions of several species over longer time scales. Our analysis has important implications for predicting variation in species distributions over time and demonstrates a widely applicable method for leveraging combined fisheries‐independent survey datasets to characterize community‐level responses to ecosystem change at basin‐wide scales.

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Evaluation of Different Bias Correction Methods for Dynamical Downscaled Future Projections of the California Current Upwelling System

Pozo Buil,

Fiechter,

Jacox

et al. 2023

Earth and Space Science

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Biases in global Earth System Models (ESMs) are an important source of errors when used to obtain boundary conditions for regional models. Here we examine historical and future conditions in the California Current System (CCS) using three different methods to force the regional model: (a) interpolation of ESM output to the regional grid with no bias correction; (b) a “seasonally‐varying” delta method that obtains a season‐dependent mean climate change signal from the ESM for a 30‐year future period; and (c) a “time‐varying” delta method that includes the interannual variability of the ESM over the 1980–2100 period. To compare these methods, we use a high‐resolution (0.1°) physical‐biogeochemical regional model to dynamically downscale an ESM projection under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Using different downscaling methods, the sign of future changes agrees for most of the physical and ecosystem variables, but the spatial patterns and magnitudes of these changes differ, with the seasonal‐ and time‐varying delta simulations showing more similar changes. Not correcting the ESM forcing leads to amplification of biases in some ecosystem variables as well as misrepresentation of the California Undercurrent and CCS source waters. In the non‐bias corrected and time‐varying delta simulations, most of the ecosystem variables inherit trends and decadal variability from the ESM, while in the seasonally‐varying delta simulation the future variability reflects the observed historical variability (1980–2010). Our results demonstrate that bias correcting the forcing prior to downscaling improves historical simulations, and that the bias correction method may impact the spatial and temporal variability of the future projections.

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Projecting climate change impacts from physics to fisheries: A view from three California Current fisheries

Cited by 10 publications

References 127 publications

Divergent responses of highly migratory species to climate change in the California Current

Divergent responses of highly migratory species to climate change in the California Current

Characterizing dominant patterns of spatiotemporal variation for a transboundary groundfish assemblage

Evaluation of Different Bias Correction Methods for Dynamical Downscaled Future Projections of the California Current Upwelling System

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