Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests

Hammond, William P.; Williams, A. Park; Abatzoglou, John T.; Adams, Henry D.; Klein, Tamir; Rodríguez, Rosana López; Sáenz‐Romero, Cuauhtémoc; Hartmann, Henrik; Breshears, David D.; Allen, Craig D.

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29289-2

Cited by 267 publications

(193 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Niger river basin in Fig. 3) (31). Productivity shocks due to dry and wet soil moisture deviations (droughts and floods) have been reported also in cultivated lands, particularly in South and East Asia, Australia and North Africa (32), where we find both drying and wetting (Fig.…”

Section: Main Textsupporting

confidence: 62%

Global water cycle shifts far beyond pre-industrial conditions – planetary boundary for freshwater change transgressed

Porkka¹,

Virkki²,

Wang‐Erlandsson³

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Human actions compromise the many life-supporting functions of the global freshwater cycle. Yet, an encompassing analysis of humanity’s aggregate impact on the freshwater cycle is still missing. We compare the current state of the freshwater cycle against a stable reference state by estimating the global area experiencing streamflow and soil moisture deviations beyond pre-industrial variability range. We propose replacing the current freshwater use planetary boundary (PB) with our thus-defined freshwater change PB. Our analysis indicates unprecedented change: locally, the impacts of e.g. climate change, land use, and dams, are clearly visible. Globally, we find 70% and 44% increases in areas experiencing streamflow and soil moisture deviations. This suggests a transgression of the PB, calling for urgent actions to reduce human disturbance of the freshwater cycle.

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Section: Main Textsupporting

confidence: 62%

Global water cycle shifts far beyond pre-industrial conditions – planetary boundary for freshwater change transgressed

Porkka¹,

Virkki²,

Wang‐Erlandsson³

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…Attributing observed plastic changes to individual environmental or biotic drivers will require a separate analysis, but we note that some regional studies have attributed recent mortality episodes of gymnosperm-dominated forests to temperature and VPD 75 . A recent global synthesis identified the imprint of hotter-drought events on reported mortality episodes 76 . The hypothesis of directional changes in plant physiological processes (i.e., hydraulic damage, carbon source-sink dynamics, structural changes 15 ) is also consistent with previous diachronic and synchronic analyses of the autocorrelation term in paired chronologies from surviving and dead gymnosperm trees 50,51 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growth plasticity of Gymnosperm trees did not avoid declining resilience to soil and atmospheric droughts during the 20th century

Zheng

Vilalta

García‐Valdés

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Plasticity in response to environmental drivers can help trees cope with droughts. However, our understanding of the importance of plasticity and physiological adjustments in trees under global change is limited. We examine 20th century growth responses in Gymnosperm trees during (resistance) and following (resilience) years of severe soil and atmospheric droughts occurring in isolation or as compound events. We use high atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) to select years of atmospheric drought and negative annual values of the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to select years with a large negative balance between precipitation and evaporation. Sensitivities (i.e., the slopes of the relationships) of resilience to VPD and SPEI changed throughout the 20th century, with the directions of these changes often reversing in the second half of the century. For the 1951-2001 period, variable sensitivities had positive effects on resilience, especially following years of high VPD and compound VPD/SPEI events, avoiding growth losses that would have occurred if sensitivities had remained constant. Despite sensitivity changes, resilience recovered less at the end of the 20th century compared to the beginning of the century. Future adjustments to low SPEI and high VPD are likely to continue to compensate for the trends in climate only partially, leading to further generalised reductions in tree growth of Gymnosperm trees.

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“…Additionally, many of these proposed solutions may be ineffective or counterproductive in the new conditions created by anthropogenic climate change. For example, the survival of large herds of herbivores could be negatively affected by shifts in forage and extreme weather events (Forbes et al, 2016;Zarnetske et al, 2021), and carbon uptake from tree planting can be erased by temperatureinduced mass mortality and an intensifying wildfire regime (Hammond et al, 2022;Talucci et al, 2022). Even if these interventions achieved their climate goals, they would threaten more than half of remaining intact ecosystems globally (Watson et al, 2018;Díaz et al, 2019).…”

Section: What Can We Do?mentioning

confidence: 99%

We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems

Abbott

Brown²,

Carey

et al. 2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Climate change is an existential threat to the vast global permafrost domain. The diverse human cultures, ecological communities, and biogeochemical cycles of this tenth of the planet depend on the persistence of frozen conditions. The complexity, immensity, and remoteness of permafrost ecosystems make it difficult to grasp how quickly things are changing and what can be done about it. Here, we summarize terrestrial and marine changes in the permafrost domain with an eye toward global policy. While many questions remain, we know that continued fossil fuel burning is incompatible with the continued existence of the permafrost domain as we know it. If we fail to protect permafrost ecosystems, the consequences for human rights, biosphere integrity, and global climate will be severe. The policy implications are clear: the faster we reduce human emissions and draw down atmospheric CO2, the more of the permafrost domain we can save. Emissions reduction targets must be strengthened and accompanied by support for local peoples to protect intact ecological communities and natural carbon sinks within the permafrost domain. Some proposed geoengineering interventions such as solar shading, surface albedo modification, and vegetation manipulations are unproven and may exacerbate environmental injustice without providing lasting protection. Conversely, astounding advances in renewable energy have reopened viable pathways to halve human greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and effectively stop them well before 2050. We call on leaders, corporations, researchers, and citizens everywhere to acknowledge the global importance of the permafrost domain and work towards climate restoration and empowerment of Indigenous and immigrant communities in these regions.

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Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests

Cited by 267 publications

References 56 publications

Global water cycle shifts far beyond pre-industrial conditions – planetary boundary for freshwater change transgressed

Global water cycle shifts far beyond pre-industrial conditions – planetary boundary for freshwater change transgressed

Growth plasticity of Gymnosperm trees did not avoid declining resilience to soil and atmospheric droughts during the 20th century

We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems

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