Global evaluation of the effects of agriculture and water management adaptations on the water-stressed population

Hayashi, Ayami; Akimoto, Keigo; Tomoda, Toshimasa; Kii, Masanobu

doi:10.1007/s11027-012-9377-3

Cited by 47 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Then they adopted a logarithmic model and regressed with the data that represent the present global relationship between per capita GDP and water use. Hayashi et al (2013) adopted the same model as Shen et al (2008), while they made regression separately from urban and rural areas since the accessibility to tap water is substantially different. Because their models do not require historical timeseries data of regions and countries, it is easy to calibrate the model parameter.…”

Section: Households (Domestic Sector)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling global water use for the 21st century: the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

et al. 2016

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Abstract. To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fasttrack" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

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Section: Households (Domestic Sector)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling global water use for the 21st century: the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

et al. 2016

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“…The above review indicates that five factors are required to estimate potential irrigation water demand: E pot , P eff , A irg , Alcamo et al (2003aAlcamo et al ( , 2007 Electricity production Parameter Per capita GDP Shen et al (2008) Electricity production Primary energy, GDP Voß and Flörke (2010), Flörke et al (2013) Manufacturing output expressed in Parameter GDP manufacturing water gross value added Voß and Flörke (2010), Flörke et al (2013) Thermal electricity production Parameter Fraction of cooling type thermal power cooling water Hayashi et al (2012) Sector-wise production of manufacturing sectors i irg , and e irg . Döll (2002) projected the global withdrawalbased potential irrigation water demand for the 2020s and 2070s under different climate scenarios using two global climate models and one GHG emission scenario, in order to account for changes in E pot and P eff .…”

Section: Irrigation Water Withdrawalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hayashi et al (2012) proposed a new type of model that accumulated sector-wise potential industrial water demand. All of these earlier studies estimated model parameters from the historical record.…”

Section: Highmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, some earlier studies have assumed no change or a decrease in irrigation in the future. For example, Alcamo et al (2007) assumed there would be no growth at all, and Hayashi et al (2012) assumed a decrease of approximately 0.2 % yr −1 globally. The range of scenarios would be even larger if we adopted these assumptions.…”

Section: Interpretation Of Irrigation Efficiency and Changes In Indusmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 1: Water use

Hanasaki

Fujimori

Yamamoto

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

171

122

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Abstract.A novel global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century is presented in a two-part paper. In this first paper, water use scenarios are presented for the latest global hydrological models. The scenarios are compatible with the socio-economic scenarios of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which are a part of the latest set of scenarios on global change developed by the integrated assessment, the IAV (climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment), and the climate modeling community. The SSPs depict five global situations based on substantially different socio-economic conditions during the 21st century. Water use scenarios were developed to reflect not only quantitative socio-economic factors, such as population and electricity production, but also key qualitative concepts such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. Each scenario consists of five factors: irrigated area, crop intensity, irrigation efficiency, and withdrawal-based potential industrial and municipal water demands. The first three factors are used to estimate the potential irrigation water demand. All factors were developed using simple models based on a literature review and analysis of historical records. The factors are grid-based at a spatial resolution of 0.5 • × 0.5 • and cover the whole 21st century in five-year intervals. Each factor shows wide variation among the different global situations depicted: the irrigated area in 2085 varies between 2.7 × 10 6 and 4.5 × 10 6 km 2 , withdrawal-based potential industrial water demand between 246 and 1714 km 3 yr −1 , and municipal water between 573 and 1280 km 3 yr −1 . The water use scenarios can be used for global water scarcity assessments that identify the regions vulnerable to water scarcity and analyze the timing and magnitude of scarcity conditions.

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“…Furthermore, in many regions, the primary source of cooking fuel is wood harvested from native and non-agricultural vegetation, especially from forests. Superimposed on current drivers of desertification, SSA is also expected to have an increase in population from 1.4 billion to 2.4 billion by 2050 [46]. There is continued debate on population growth acting as a driver for land use changes, however.…”

Section: Desertification In the Sahelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing the Effectiveness of the “Great Green Wall” as an Adaptation to the Effects of Climate Change and Desertification in the Sahel

O’Connor

Ford

2014

Sustainability

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Abstract:The Great Green Wall (GGW) has been advocated as a means of reducing desertification in the Sahel through the planting of a broad continuous band of trees from Senegal to Djibouti. Initially proposed in the 1980s, the plan has received renewed impetus in light of the potential of climate change to accelerate desertification, although the implementation has been lacking in all but two of 11 countries in the region. In this paper, we argue that the GGW needs modifying if it is to be effective, obtain the support of local communities and leverage international support. Specifically, we propose a shift from planting trees in the GGW to utilizing shrubs (e.g., Leptospermum scoparium, Boscia senegalensis, Grewia flava, Euclea undulata or Diospyros lycioides), which would have multiple benefits, including having a faster growth rate and proving the basis for silvo-pastoral livelihoods based on bee-keeping and honey production.

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Global evaluation of the effects of agriculture and water management adaptations on the water-stressed population

Cited by 47 publications

References 16 publications

Modeling global water use for the 21st century: the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

Modeling global water use for the 21st century: the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 1: Water use

Increasing the Effectiveness of the “Great Green Wall” as an Adaptation to the Effects of Climate Change and Desertification in the Sahel

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