Global crisis and challenges for Russian economic development

Abstract

Global crisis forms new economic policy agenda which raises new questions for economic theory and economic thinking. This paper deals with these new intellectual challenges. Among them: growth theory and the risks of secular stagnation, unconventional macroeconomic policy and the prospects trends, the paper discusses the roots and features of current Russian economic problems, compares the includes the effects of sanctions against Russia on the current economic situation and the structural problems that slow down economic growth. Special attention is paid to examples of medium-term and long-term steps that can provide sustainable development for the Russian economy. F63, O52, P17, P27. 1. Introduction: Global crises-in general and in particular causes and the character of the global crisis that erupted in 2008 and that continues to the present day. This crisis is of a particular type: it cannot be explained in terms of one or two parameters (for example, in terms of decline in production or growth in unemployment), and it is multi-dimensional and affects many spheres of socioeconomic life. In most cases, it has had serious socio-political consequences. This is a systemic crisis and, in this respect, resembles the crises of the 1930s and the 1970s (Mau, 2009). Comparisons are not straightforward. The lessons learned in overcoming the systemic cricrises have a number of qualitative features in common. This means they can be treated as www.rujec.org

The effect of Russia’s economic crisis and import ban on its agricultural and food sector

“…The International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2015), Gurvich and Prilepskiy (2015), Mau and Ulyukaev (2015), and Mau (2017) examined how these various crisis-related events have affected Russia's overall economy, while Golikova and Kuznetsov (2017) investigated the impact specifically on manufacturing. Wegren, Nilssen, and Elvestad (2016) examined how Russian food security policy, which focuses on agricultural import substitution and self-sufficiency, has impacted the agricultural and food sector since Russia created its Doctrine on Food Security in 2010.…”

Analysis of the Russian Economy’s Ability to Generate Profit

“…This situation has determined differences in efficiency by balance (flows/stocks). There should be noted the positive maxima of efficiency in the balance of 2008-2009and 2014-2015. In 2008-2009 high efficiency values were achieved due to the total (flow and reserves) inflow of foreign direct investment, and in 2014-2015due to outflow.…”

“…The sharp fall of the Russian economy and its transition first to the stage of stagnation in 2013-2014 [1] and then to recession in 2015 [2] accompanied by negative processes of stagflation increasingly determines its place as the "backyard" of the world economy [3,4].…”

Currency rate, its gradual movement towards the dual currency basket and transfer to the free conversion in the conditions of sanctions

“…Нынешний политический кризис и санкционная политика ведущих экономик мира несколько ускорили его движение, и так «скользящее по наклонной плоскости» (Вагина, 2015;Власова, 2014;Газизов, Галиев, 2015;Грудкина, Ловчикова, Артёмова, Чурсин, 2015;Гулиев, Мустафинов, 2015;Гусев, 2015;Ершов, 2014;Карамян, Чебанов, Соловьева, 2015;Орлова, 2014;Тюфанова, Орлова, 2015;Чалык, Морозова, 2014;Шишов, 2014;Mau, Ulyukaev, 2015;Naghavi, Pignataro, 2015;Oechslin, 2014). В числе причин общего и фундаментального характера, повлиявших на стремительное падение курса рубля, отмечаются такие, как: ограничение доступа к внешним финансовым рынкам крупнейших российских банков, снижение цен на нефть, а также доходов попавших под санкции компаний, работающих в нефтяном, военно-промышленом и сырьевом секторе экономики, не исключением являются и спекуляции на валютном рынке, отток капитала и негативные настроения населения -держателей валютных вкладов.…”