Global Climate Change and Implications for Disease Emergence

Abstract

The early consequences of global climate change (GCC) are well documented. However, future impacts on ecosystem health, and on the health of humans, domestic animals, and wildlife, are much less well understood. Evidence of increasing frequency of extreme weather events (the 2003 trans-European heat wave, extended droughts in Australia and South America), of geographic changes in vector-borne disease (bluetongue and hanta viruses emerging in northern Europe, dengue virus expanding in central and northern America), and of altered animal behavioral responses (changes in bird migration patterns and fishery numbers) warrants action. To make valid choices, however, practitioners and decision makers must understand what is known about GCC and what is only theory. There will be a multitude of microbial, vector, and host responses to climate change, for example, and not all organisms will respond similarly or across equal time scales. Unfortunately, for many organisms and ecosystems the scientific community has a relatively poor understanding of current effectors and balances, making it problematic to describe the current situation, let alone to validate future predictions. The need for enhanced basic research and systematic surveillance programs is obvious, but putting such programs into place is daunting. However, the threats are real and fast approaching. What is done in the next few years may be decisive, whether for the good or the ill of all.

A social–ecological approach to landscape epidemiology: geographic variation and avian influenza

“…In general, climate change is likely to introduce even greater variability into duck populations and movements, making monitoring and control of AIVs more difficult. Climate change will also have both direct and indirect effects on agriculture and related patterns of water management (Huntjens et al 2011;Viviroli et al 2011), again with relatively unpredictable consequences for waterbird populations and AIV transmission cycles (Both 2010;Slenning 2010).…”

The Ecology of Emerging Infectious Diseases in Migratory Birds: An Assessment of the Role of Climate Change and Priorities for Future Research

“…This review complements several recent studies on climate change, wild birds, and emerging diseases (Salomon and Webster 2009;Faaborg et al 2010;Jiguet et al 2010;Slenning 2010;Vandegrift et al 2010;Altizer et al 2011;Saino et al 2011). Our review is unique in that we focus on the spillover of pathogens from wild birds to humans and we assess the benefits and feasibility of policies for monitoring emergent avian pathogens and ultimately preventing their spillover to humans and livestock, such as sampling systems built upon bird banding networks and biobanks to store pathogens collected from wild birds.…”

Yes, but Is It True?

“…22 Both articles are well written, and given the many unexamined assertions and assumptions, the conclusions follow. However, the authors in presenting such politically correct perspectives are taking a lot on trust, and it would be wise to read a few skeptical books and papers before committing themselves.…”