Global change on the roof of the world: Vulnerability of Himalayan otter species to land use and climate alterations

Jamwal, Pushpinder S.; Febbraro, Mirko Di; Carranza, María Laura; Savage, Melissa; Loy, Anna

doi:10.1111/ddi.13377

Cited by 25 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 104 publications

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“…To evaluate the effect of climate and land use change on D. involucrate , following Jamwal et al ( 2021 ), we computed two different types of SDMs with different sets of variables: (a) including only climate variables (climate SDMs) and (b) adding also land use variables (full SDMs). These SDMs were calibrated with an ensemble forecasting approach under the BIOMOD2 platform version 3.5.1 (Thuiller et al, 2021 ), using the following ten modeling algorithms: artificial neural network (ANN), classification tree analysis (CTA), flexible discriminant analysis (FDA), generalized additive model (GAM), generalized boosted models (GBM), generalized linear model (GLM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), maximum entropy (MaxEnt), random forests (RF), and surface range envelope (SRE).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

Tang

Zhao

2022

Ecology and Evolution

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Accurately predicting the future distribution of species is crucial for understanding how species will response to global environmental change and for evaluating the effectiveness of current protected areas (PAs). Here, we assessed the effect of climate and land use change on the projected suitable habitats of Davidia involucrata Baill under different future scenarios using the following two types of models: (a) only climate covariates (climate SDMs) and (b) climate and land use covariates (full SDMs). We found that full SDMs perform significantly better than climate SDMs in terms of both AUC ( p < .001) and TSS ( p < .001) and also projected more suitable habitat than climate SDMs both in the whole study area and in its current suitable range, although D. involucrate is predicted to loss at least 26.96% of its suitable area under all future scenarios. Similarly, we found that these range contractions projected by climate SDMs would negate the effectiveness of current PAs to a greater extent relative to full SDMs. These results suggest that although D. involucrate is extremely vulnerability to future climate change, conservation intervention to manage habitat may be an effective option to offset some of the negative effects of a changing climate on D. involucrate and can improve the effectiveness of current PAs. Overall, this study highlights the necessity of integrating climate and land use change to project the future distribution of species.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

Tang

Zhao

2022

Ecology and Evolution

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“…Summarizing exposure to land use and climate change is not a simple task, but we have taken the relatively straightforward option of using the range outline (described in previous section) to quantify these stressors within the range of each species. Note that this differs from the use of point locations to quantify proximity to, for example, urban development (Jamwal et al 2021). The range-outline approach is a better fit for our goals simply because all species have the same starting data (the expert-derived ranges), which would not be true of 396 species using available point-occurrence records in, for example, iNaturalist.…”

Section: Variable Creation Parts 5 Through 7: Land Use Climate and Cl...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing risk for butterflies in the context of climate change, demographic uncertainty, and heterogenous data sources

Forister

Grames

Halsch

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Ongoing declines in insect populations have led to substantial concern and calls for conservation action. However, even for relatively well-studied groups, like butterflies, information relevant to species-specific status and risk is scattered across field guides, the scientific literature, and agency reports. Consequently, attention and resources have been spent on a miniscule fraction of insect diversity, including a few well-studied butterflies. Here we bring together heterogenous sources of information for 396 butterfly species and 1,004 subspecies to provide the first regional assessment of butterflies for the 11 western US states. For 184 species, we use monitoring and other observational data to characterize historical and projected trends in population abundance; for another 212 species (for which sufficient observational data are not available), we use exposure to climate change, development, geographic range, host breadth and other factors to rank species for conservation concern. We also organize information relevant to subspecific risk and prioritize a top 50 subspecies for further attention. A phylogenetic signal is apparent, with concentrations of declining and at-risk species in the families Lycaenidae and Hesperiidae. A geographic bias exists in that many species that lack monitoring data occur in more southern states where we expect that impacts of warming and drying trends will be most severe. Legal protection is relatively uncommon among the taxa with the highest risk values: of the top 100 species, one is listed as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act and one is a candidate for listing; of the top 50 subspecies, 15 have federal legal protection and one is under review for protected status. Among the many taxa not currently protected, we highlight a short list of species in decline, including Vanessa annabella, Thorybes mexicanus, Euchloe ausonides, and Pholisora catullus. Notably, many of these species have broad geographic ranges, which perhaps highlights a new era of insect conservation in which small or fragmented ranges will not be the only red flags that attract conservation attention.

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“…Trait‐based studies also inform vulnerability assessments by quantifying the functional responses of species and communities to multiple disturbances. In this special issue, Jamwal et al (2022) use the Climate Niche Factor Analysis (CNFA) framework (Rinnan & Lawler, 2019) combined with species distribution models to evaluate the vulnerability of three species of Himalayan Otter ( Lutra spp.) to the combined exposure to future climate and land use changes in the Himalayan region.…”

Section: Section B: Impact Risk and Vulnerability Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biological traits, geographic distributions, and species conservation in aquatic ecosystems

Dong

Molinos

Larson

et al. 2022

Diversity and Distributions

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Global change on the roof of the world: Vulnerability of Himalayan otter species to land use and climate alterations

Abstract: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creat ive Commo ns Attri bution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Cited by 25 publications

References 104 publications

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

Assessing risk for butterflies in the context of climate change, demographic uncertainty, and heterogenous data sources

Biological traits, geographic distributions, and species conservation in aquatic ecosystems

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