Global assessment of El Niño's disaster burden

Bouma, Menno J.; Kovats, Sari; Goubet, Stephanie; Cox, Jonathan; Haines, Andy

doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(97)04509-1

Cited by 75 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…For example, two studies of the relationship between ENSO and the frequency of major floods around the globe (Dilley and Heyman, 1995;Goddard and Dilley, 2005) found no differences between El Niño and non-El Niño years, but La Niña years were not evaluated. Similarly, another study of the number of people affected by natural hazards also only examined differences between El Niño and non-El Niño years (finding strong relationships), but did not examine La Niña years (Bouma et al, 1997). Whilst the results here only show that annual floods (which span a large range of magnitudes) are correlated with ENSO, the relationships suggest that there may also be significant links between ENSO and floods large enough to lead to flood disasters.…”

Section: Global Sensitivity Of Flood Discharge To Ensomentioning

confidence: 60%

Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño–Southern Oscillation at the global scale

Ward

Eisner

Flörke

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

132

138

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Abstract. Floods are amongst the most dangerous natural hazards in terms of economic damage. Whilst a growing number of studies have examined how river floods are influenced by climate change, the role of natural modes of interannual climate variability remains poorly understood. We present the first global assessment of the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual river floods, defined here as the peak daily discharge in a given year. The analysis was carried out by simulating daily gridded discharges using the WaterGAP model (Water -a Global Assessment and Prognosis), and examining statistical relationships between these discharges and ENSO indices. We found that, over the period 1958-2000, ENSO exerted a significant influence on annual floods in river basins covering over a third of the world's land surface, and that its influence on annual floods has been much greater than its influence on average flows. We show that there are more areas in which annual floods intensify with La Niña and decline with El Niño than vice versa. However, we also found that in many regions the strength of the relationships between ENSO and annual floods have been non-stationary, with either strengthening or weakening trends during the study period. We discuss the implications of these findings for science and management. Given the strong relationships between ENSO and annual floods, we suggest that more research is needed to assess relationships between ENSO and flood impacts (e.g. loss of lives or economic damage). Moreover, we suggest that in those regions where useful relationships exist, this information could be combined with ongoing advances in ENSO prediction research, in order to provide year-to-year probabilistic flood risk forecasts.

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Section: Global Sensitivity Of Flood Discharge To Ensomentioning

confidence: 60%

Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño–Southern Oscillation at the global scale

Ward

Eisner

Flörke

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

132

138

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The existence of a relationship between the occurrence of natural disasters throughout the world and the ENSO state has been suggested, among others, by Nicholls (1998) and Mason (2001). Bouma et al (1997) analyses the correlation between natural disasters and ENSO states at a global scale, finding significant variations in the incidence of extreme events during different ENSO phases. Sardeshmukh et al (2000) point out that ENSO may be more important for extreme events than for average climate conditions.…”

Section: Statistical Assessment Of Disaster Burdenmentioning

confidence: 94%

Climate Change and Extreme Events: An Assessment of Economic Implications

2006

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We use a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy to assess the economic implications of vulnerability from extreme meteorological events. In particular, we consider the impact of climate change on ENSO and NAO circulation patterns, and the implied variation on regional expected damages. Two effects are taken into account: (1) short-term impacts, due to changes in the demand structure, generated by higher/lower precautionary saving, and (2) variations in the regional economic growth paths.JEL Codes: D58, Q51, Q54.

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“…Within the tropical Pacific, surface trade winds tend to blow from the cool waters off of South America to the warm waters off of Indonesia, where the wind converges and rises in deep convective clouds. As can be seen in Figure 7, as the warm water shifts eastward, the region of wind convergence and deep convection shifts eastward, resulting in the ENSO cycle, with teleconnections to global weather and climate patterns (Bouma et al, 1997;Diaz & Markgraf, 2000).…”

Section: The Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array (Gtmba)mentioning

confidence: 99%