Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

Springmann, Marco; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballón, Paola; Scarborough, Peter

doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(15)01156-3

Cited by 375 publications

(266 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…In all, we investigate subnational climate-conflict dynamics across Africa and Asia, 1989-2014, covering a larger spatiotemporal domain than any previous study of this kind. The geographical scope not only accounts for the large majority of the world's armed conflicts, but it also encompasses the agricultural areas that are most vulnerable to drought and other extreme weather events (34)(35)(36). Additional details and alternative operationalizations are described in SI Text.…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought

Uexküll

Croicu

Fjelde

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

342

172

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To date, the research community has failed to reach a consensus on the nature and significance of the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict. We argue that progress has been hampered by insufficient attention paid to the context in which droughts and other climatic extremes may increase the risk of violent mobilization. Addressing this shortcoming, this study presents an actor-oriented analysis of the drought-conflict relationship, focusing specifically on politically relevant ethnic groups and their sensitivity to growing-season drought under various political and socioeconomic contexts. To this end, we draw on new conflict event data that cover Asia and Africa, 1989-2014, updated spatial ethnic settlement data, and remote sensing data on agricultural land use. Our procedure allows quantifying, for each ethnic group, drought conditions during the growing season of the locally dominant crop. A comprehensive set of multilevel mixed effects models that account for the groups' livelihood, economic, and political vulnerabilities reveals that a drought under most conditions has little effect on the short-term risk that a group challenges the state by military means. However, for agriculturally dependent groups as well as politically excluded groups in very poor countries, a local drought is found to increase the likelihood of sustained violence. We interpret this as evidence of the reciprocal relationship between drought and conflict, whereby each phenomenon makes a group more vulnerable to the other.

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Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought

Uexküll

Croicu

Fjelde

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

342

172

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…On the other side, there are yield benefits to higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and potential productivity gains at higher latitudes. Some overall estimates of the potential impacts of climate change on nutrition and mortality outcomes exist (111,141) but necessarily entail substantial uncertainty, largely because of limitations in our current understanding of the complex and interacting pathways by which climate change can affect food and nutrition security and health. Here we review the mechanisms and the estimates for how climate change may influence food production and distribution, as well as associated consequences for human food and nutrition security.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition

Myers

Smith

Guth

et al. 2017

Annu. Rev. Public Health

690

365

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Great progress has been made in addressing global undernutrition over the past several decades, in part because of large increases in food production from agricultural expansion and intensification. Food systems, however, face continued increases in demand and growing environmental pressures. Most prominently, human-caused climate change will influence the quality and quantity of food we produce and our ability to distribute it equitably. Our capacity to ensure food security and nutritional adequacy in the face of rapidly changing biophysical conditions will be a major determinant of the next century's global burden of disease. In this article, we review the main pathways by which climate change may affect our food production systems-agriculture, fisheries, and livestock-as well as the socioeconomic forces that may influence equitable distribution.

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“…The impacts of climate change vary regionally in magnitude and direction with high risks for food production indicated especially for South Asia and Africa (Knox et al 2012), but also reported in numerous other regions (Springmann et al 2016). Such impacts are not only threatening food production itself but may feed forward into countries' economic and political stability (Bellemare 2015).…”

Section: Climate Change Adaptationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Countries that stick out with a high carbon storage potential include French Guiana, Gabon, and Malaysia. The need for adaptation is linked to the excess death rate in 2050 due to climate-induced changes in agricultural production (Springmann et al 2016). Springmann and colleagues modeled changes in bodyweight, red meat consumption, and fruit and vegetable consumption as well as their health effects.…”

Section: Mapping Opportunities For Climate-smart Interventionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping and linking supply- and demand-side measures in climate-smart agriculture. A review

Scherer

Verburg

2017

Agron. Sustain. Dev.

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Climate change and food security are two of humanity's greatest challenges and are highly interlinked. On the one hand, climate change puts pressure on food security. On the other hand, farming significantly contributes to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. This calls for climate-smart agriculture-agriculture that helps to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Climate-smart agriculture measures are diverse and include emission reductions, sink enhancements, and fossil fuel offsets for mitigation. Adaptation measures include technological advancements, adaptive farming practices, and financial management. Here, we review the potentials and trade-offs of climate-smart agricultural measures by producers and consumers. Our two main findings are as follows: (1) The benefits of measures are often site-dependent and differ according to agricultural practices (e.g., fertilizer use), environmental conditions (e.g., carbon sequestration potential), or the production and consumption of specific products (e.g., rice and meat). (2) Climate-smart agricultural measures on the supply side are likely to be insufficient or ineffective if not accompanied by changes in consumer behavior, as climate-smart agriculture will affect the supply of agricultural commodities and require changes on the demand side in response. Such linkages between demand and supply require simultaneous policy and market incentives. It, therefore, requires interdisciplinary cooperation to meet the twin challenge of climate change and food security. The link to consumer behavior is often neglected in research but regarded as an essential component of climate-smart agriculture. We argue for not solely focusing research and implementation on one-sided measures but designing good, sitespecific combinations of both demand-and supply-side measures to use the potential of agriculture more effectively to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

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Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

Cited by 375 publications

References 35 publications

Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought

Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought

Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition

Mapping and linking supply- and demand-side measures in climate-smart agriculture. A review

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