Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7): Experimental design and preliminary results

Nakano, Masuo; Wada, Akiyoshi; Sawada, Masahiro; Yoshimura, Hiromasa; Onishi, Ryo; Kawahara, Shintaro; Sasaki, Wataru; Nasuno, Tomoe; Yamaguchi, Munehiko; Iriguchi, Takeshi; Sugi, Masato; Takeuchi, Yoshinori

doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-184

Cited by 12 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 55 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The microphysics included in the NHM and CPL is therefore important for TC simulations. Differences of the microphysics between models may therefore result in qualitative differences of the inner core structure of TCs (Nakano et al, ). Microphysics may also quantitatively affect the sensitivity of simulated TC intensities to air‐sea interfacial processes such as SSC and sea spray parameterization through differences in the estimates of latent heating.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the horizontal resolution of the operational model of the global atmosphere has currently not reached 5 km. Nakano et al () have also demonstrated that a TC intensity forecast can even vary among different models with the same horizontal resolution of 7 km.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…It is well known that improvements in forecasts of TC intensity remain a challenge, despite improved forecasting of TC tracks (e.g., Ito, ; Nakano et al, ). Haiyan is one example of the failure of intensity prediction.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Effect of Air‐Sea Environmental Conditions and Interfacial Processes on Extremely Intense Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

2018

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Typhoon Haiyan (2013) intensified rapidly and reached a central pressure of 895 hPa over the warm northwestern Pacific. To clarify why Haiyan became such an extraordinarily intense tropical cyclone (TC), we investigated the impacts of atmospheric and oceanic conditions and air‐sea interfacial processes on Haiyan's intensity. We performed ensemble experiments with many different initial oceanic conditions and a 7‐km‐mesh atmosphere‐wave‐ocean coupled model. We also performed sensitivity experiments to examine the impacts of sea spray and use of a 2‐km‐mesh horizontal resolution. Also, analogous experiments were performed with Typhoon Mike (1990), which followed a similar track but was less intense than Haiyan. For both TCs, ocean coupling helped alleviate uncertainty in the simulated intensities caused by different preexisting oceanic conditions. Increases in air‐sea latent heat fluxes helped increase the intensity of both TCs although the effect of sea spray depended on whitecap coverage. Preexisting oceanic conditions and air‐sea interfacial processes directly affected the secondary circulation via changes in latent heat fluxes and near‐surface moisture influxes. However, the 2‐km‐mesh resolution improved only Haiyan's simulation; the mean latent heat flux over the strength area was insufficient to simulate the intensity. It was easterly winds and specific humidity at 850 hPa that determined the small size, rapid translation, less sea surface cooling, and small decreases in latent heat fluxes beneath the frictional convergence area of simulated Haiyan. Understanding of the effect of preexisting oceanic conditions and air‐sea interfacial processes on simulated TCs will serve as a guideline for improvement of the atmosphere‐wave‐ocean coupled model.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Effect of Air‐Sea Environmental Conditions and Interfacial Processes on Extremely Intense Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

2018

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…We found that the predicted flood hydrographs of the 10 test events generally matched the actual flood hydrographs providing a long lead time (e.g., several days), with acceptable variation in the timing and volume of peak flows. This is a major improvement of existing prediction modeling approaches (e.g., physical, conceptual, and data-driven) that focus on rainfallrunoff mechanisms providing a short lead time (e.g., one-to sixhour) [36][37][38] . Figures 7-9 present the predicted flood hydrographs of the three test typhoon events (i.e., Typhoon Fitow, Typhoon Soulik, and Typhoon Dujuan, respectively) under three TD schemes implemented with the two FCC selection strategies.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Self-organizing maps of typhoon tracks allow for flood forecasts up to two days in advance

Chang

Yang

et al. 2020

Nat Commun

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Typhoons are among the greatest natural hazards along East Asian coasts. Typhoon-related precipitation can produce flooding that is often only predictable a few hours in advance. Here, we present a machine-learning method comparing projected typhoon tracks with past trajectories, then using the information to predict flood hydrographs for a watershed on Taiwan. The hydrographs provide early warning of possible flooding prior to typhoon landfall, and then real-time updates of expected flooding along the typhoon's path. The method associates different types of typhoon tracks with landscape topography and runoff data to estimate the water inflow into a reservoir, allowing prediction of flood hydrographs up to two days in advance with continual updates. Modelling involves identifying typhoon track vectors, clustering vectors using a self-organizing map, extracting flow characteristic curves, and predicting flood hydrographs. This machine learning approach can significantly improve existing flood warning systems and provide early warnings to reservoir management.

show abstract

“…A higher resolution model is needed to improve the representation of the structure of the TC's inner core, which results in accurate simulation of rapid intensification (Rogers et al 2013;Wang and Wang, 2014). Interestingly, a recent study shows that high-resolution global models reduce forecast error in TC intensity and tracking forecasts (Nakano et al 2017). The atmosphereocean interacting processes should also be incorporated in the numerical model to avoid overintensification (Wada et al 2014;Zarzycki 2016).…”

Section: Future Directionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Outcomes and challenges of global high-resolution non-hydrostatic atmospheric simulations using the K computer

Satoh

Tomita

Yashiro

et al. 2017

Prog. in Earth and Planet. Sci.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This article reviews the major outcomes of a 5-year (2011-2016) project using the K computer to perform global numerical atmospheric simulations based on the non-hydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM). The K computer was made available to the public in September 2012 and was used as a primary resource for Japan's Strategic Programs for Innovative Research (SPIRE), an initiative to investigate five strategic research areas; the NICAM project fell under the research area of climate and weather simulation sciences. Combining NICAM with high-performance computing has created new opportunities in three areas of research: (1) higher resolution global simulations that produce more realistic representations of convective systems, (2) multi-member ensemble simulations that are able to perform extended-range forecasts 10-30 days in advance, and (3) multi-decadal simulations for climatology and variability. Before the K computer era, NICAM was used to demonstrate realistic simulations of intra-seasonal oscillations including the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), merely as a case study approach. Thanks to the big leap in computational performance of the K computer, we could greatly increase the number of cases of MJO events for numerical simulations, in addition to integrating time and horizontal resolution. We conclude that the high-resolution global non-hydrostatic model, as used in this five-year project, improves the ability to forecast intra-seasonal oscillations and associated tropical cyclogenesis compared with that of the relatively coarser operational models currently in use. The impacts of the sub-kilometer resolution simulation and the multi-decadal simulations using NICAM are also reviewed.

show abstract

Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7): Experimental design and preliminary results

Cited by 12 publications

References 55 publications

Effect of Air‐Sea Environmental Conditions and Interfacial Processes on Extremely Intense Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Effect of Air‐Sea Environmental Conditions and Interfacial Processes on Extremely Intense Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Self-organizing maps of typhoon tracks allow for flood forecasts up to two days in advance

Outcomes and challenges of global high-resolution non-hydrostatic atmospheric simulations using the K computer

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About