Effect of Air‐Sea Environmental Conditions and Interfacial Processes on Extremely Intense Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Wada, Akiyoshi; Kanada, Sachie; Yamada, Hiroyuki

doi:10.1029/2017jd028139

Cited by 17 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 90 publications

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“…Previous studies found that the intensity forecast of Typhoon Haiyan related with the atmospheric environment, ocean support and other technical details such as horizontal grid resolution and physical parameterization schemes (Lin et al 2014;Islam et al 2015;Wada et al 2018). To understand the factors in atmospheric initial conditions that can improve the intensity forecast, ensemble sensitivity analysis is performed here for Typhoon Haiyan.…”

Section: Case Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multivariate Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis for Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Ren

Lei

Tan

et al. 2019

Monthly Weather Review

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Ensemble sensitivity is often a diagonal approximation to the multivariate regression, leading to a simple univariate regression. Comparatively, the multivariate ensemble sensitivity retains the full covariance matrix when computing the multivariate regression. The performances of both univariate and multivariate ensemble sensitivities in multiscale flows have not been thoroughly examined, and the demonstration of the latter in realistic applications has been sparse. A high-resolution ensemble forecast of Typhoon Haiyan (2013) is used to examine the performances of the two ensemble sensitivities. Compared to the multivariate sensitivity, the univariate sensitivity overestimates the forecast metric, especially at higher levels. To increase the predicted Haiyan’s intensity, multivariate ensemble sensitivity gives initial perturbations characterized by a warming area around the center of the storm, an increased moisture area around the eyewall, a stronger primary circulation around the radius of maximum wind, and stronger inflow at low levels and stronger outflow at high levels. Perturbed initial condition experiments verify that the predicted response from the multivariate sensitivity is more accurate than that from the univariate sensitivity. Therefore, the ability of multivariate sensitivity to provide more accurate predicted responses than the univariate sensitivity has been demonstrated in a realistic multiscale flow application.

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Section: Case Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multivariate Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis for Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Ren

Lei

Tan

et al. 2019

Monthly Weather Review

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“…More recently, Garg et al (2018) integrated spray-mediated flux formulations from the Andreas corpus along with surface-wave effects into WRF, and found that the spray and surface wave modules produced a stronger hurricane compared to a control simulation. Wada et al (2018) showed that the choice of sea spray parameterization can significantly impact the air-sea latent heat flux in TC simulations. These findings support the conclusion that microscale processes can significantly influence largescale dynamics, and demonstrate how improvements in sea spray flux parameterizations can be used to improve TC simulations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Parameterizations for Enthalpy and Momentum Fluxes from Sea Spray in Tropical Cyclones

Sroka

Emanuel

2021

Journal of Physical Oceanography

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The intensity of tropical cyclones is sensitive to the air-sea fluxes of enthalpy and momentum. Sea spray plays a critical role in mediating enthalpy and momentum fluxes over the ocean’s surface at high wind speeds, and parameterizing the influence of sea spray is a crucial component of any air-sea interaction scheme used for the high wind regime where sea spray is ubiquitous. Many studies have proposed parameterizations of air-sea flux that incorporate the microphysics of sea spray evaporation and the mechanics of sea spray stress. Unfortunately, there is not yet a consensus on which parameterization best represents air-sea exchange in tropical cyclones, and the different proposed parameterizations can yield substantially different tropical cyclone intensities. This paper seeks to review the developments in parameterizations of the sea spray-mediated enthalpy and momentum fluxes for the high wind speed regime and to synthesize key findings that are common across many investigations.

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“…Gronholz et al (2017) showed improved SST prediction for the North Sea via the use of a higherresolution regional atmospheric forcing rather than a globalscale analysis, and subsequent further improvement by coupling between the atmosphere and ocean. The influence of improved wind forcing by wave-atmosphere coupling was demonstrated by Wahle et al (2017) for a similar domain.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Evaluating the impact of atmospheric forcing and air–sea coupling on near-coastal regional ocean prediction

et al. 2019

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Abstract. Atmospheric forcing applied as ocean model boundary conditions can have a critical impact on the quality of ocean forecasts. This paper assesses the sensitivity of an eddy-resolving (1.5 km resolution) regional ocean model of the north-west European Shelf (NWS) to the choice of atmospheric forcing and atmosphere–ocean coupling. The analysis is focused on a month-long simulation experiment for July 2014 and evaluation of simulated sea surface temperature (SST) in a shallow near-coastal region to the south-west of the UK (Celtic Sea and western English Channel). Observations of the ocean and atmosphere are used to evaluate model results, with a particular focus on the L4 ocean buoy from the Western Channel Observatory as a rare example of co-located data above and below the sea surface. The impacts of differences in the atmospheric forcing are illustrated by comparing results from an ocean model run in forcing mode using operational global-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) data with an ocean model run forced by a convective-scale regional atmosphere model. The value of dynamically representing feedbacks between the atmosphere and ocean state is assessed via the use of these model components within a fully coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere system. Simulated SSTs show considerable sensitivity to atmospheric forcing and to the impact of model coupling in near-coastal areas. A warm ocean bias relative to in situ observations in the simulation forced by global-scale NWP (0.7 K in the model domain) is shown to be reduced (to 0.4 K) via the use of the 1.5 km resolution regional atmospheric forcing. When simulated in coupled mode, this bias is further reduced (by 0.2 K). Results demonstrate much greater variability of both the surface heat budget terms and the near-surface winds in the convective-scale atmosphere model data, as might be expected. Assessment of the surface heat budget and wind forcing over the ocean is challenging due to a scarcity of observations. However, it can be demonstrated that the wind speed over the ocean simulated by the convective-scale atmosphere did not agree as well with the limited number of observations as the global-scale NWP data did. Further partially coupled experiments are discussed to better understand why the degraded wind forcing does not detrimentally impact on SST results.

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Effect of Air‐Sea Environmental Conditions and Interfacial Processes on Extremely Intense Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Cited by 17 publications

References 90 publications

Multivariate Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis for Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Multivariate Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis for Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

A Review of Parameterizations for Enthalpy and Momentum Fluxes from Sea Spray in Tropical Cyclones

Evaluating the impact of atmospheric forcing and air–sea coupling on near-coastal regional ocean prediction

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