GIS-based models for water quantity and quality assessment in the Júcar River Basin, Spain, including climate change effects

Ferrer, Javier; Pérez-Martín, Miguel Ángel; Jiménez, Sara; Estrela, Teodoro; Andreu, Joaquín

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.08.032

Cited by 54 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Estimations of climate change impacts in the Jucar basin indicate a reduction of water availability by 19% in the short-term , and 40-50% in the long-term (2070-2100) (Ferrer et al, 2012). A study by CEDEX (2010) forecasts water availability reductions between 5% and 12% for 2011-2040, between 13% and 18% for 2041-2070, and between 24% and 32% for 2071-2100.…”

Section: Model Application and Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions

Kahil¹,

Dinar

Albiac³

2015

Journal of Hydrology

185

102

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s u m m a r yGrowing water extractions combined with emerging demands for environment protection increase competition for scarce water resources worldwide, especially in arid and semiarid regions. In those regions, climate change is projected to exacerbate water scarcity and increase the recurrence and intensity of droughts. These circumstances call for methodologies that can support the design of sustainable water management. This paper presents a hydro-economic model that links a reduced form hydrological component, with economic and environmental components. The model is applied to an arid and semiarid basin in Southeastern Spain to analyze the effects of droughts and to assess alternative adaptation policies. Results indicate that drought events have large impacts on social welfare, with the main adjustments sustained by irrigation and the environment. The water market policy seems to be a suitable option to overcome the negative economic effects of droughts, although the environmental effects may weaken its advantages for society. The environmental water market policy, where water is acquired for the environment, is an appealing policy to reap the private benefits of markets while protecting ecosystems. The current water management approach in Spain, based on stakeholders' cooperation, achieves almost the same economic outcomes and better environmental outcomes compared to a pure water market. These findings call for a reconsideration of the current management in arid and semiarid basins around the world. The paper illustrates the potential of hydro-economic modeling for integrating the multiple dimensions of water resources, becoming a valuable tool in the advancement of sustainable water management policies.

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Section: Model Application and Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions

Kahil¹,

Dinar

Albiac³

2015

Journal of Hydrology

185

102

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“…In this paper the Jucar River Basin District (JB) is used as a representative example of the conditions described above. The JB is a well-studied area with a history of data collection and model applications that makes it suitable for the goals of this paper (Ferrer et al 2012). Chirivella et al (2014) show that in the JB the selected AEMET scenarios reproduce reasonably well historical records of temperature (with average differences between -1.53ºC and +1.88 ºC, with a total average of -0.05ºC).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Dynamical versus statistical downscaling for the generation of regional climate change scenarios at a Western Mediterranean basin: the Jucar river district

Chirivella¹,

Capilla²,

Pérez-Martín³

2015

J Water Climate Change

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IWA PublishingChirivella Osma, V.; Capilla Romá, JE.; Pérez-Martín, MÁ. (2016) This paper analyses how dynamic downscaling improves climate change scenarios statistically based. The study area is the Jucar River Basin (JB), with results from ECHAM5 GCM, and a close time frame 2010-40 appropriated for decision-making. The dynamic downscaling is performed with the Regional Model (RCM) RegCM3. It is applied to a coarse grid over the Iberian Peninsula, and then to a finer grid over the JB. The RCM is customized to reproduce Western Mediterranean climatic conditions using the convective precipitation scheme of Grell; the non-convective scheme is customized changing the default RH min and C ptt parameters to reproduce precipitations originated by largerscale atmospheric circulations.The RCM results, compared to current official Spanish AEMET scenarios -statistically based -reproduce much better historical data (used to verify scenarios generation). They foresee a 21.0 % precipitation decrease for 2010-40, compared to previous ECHAM4 predictions with statistical downscaling (-6.64 %). Most significant reductions in February, September and October. Average estimated temperature increase is 0.75 °C, with high increments in July (+3.05 °C) and August (+1.89 °C).

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“…It is the most extensive system (22,261 km 2 ) and provides the greatest amount of water resources in the Jucar River Basin Agency. A brief description of the study area and key issues is presented below; details can be found in Ferrer et al (2012).…”

Section: Characterization Of the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Key issues for determining the exploitable water resources in a Mediterranean river basin

Pedro-Monzonís¹,

Ferrer²,

Solera³

et al. 2015

Science of The Total Environment

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GIS-based models for water quantity and quality assessment in the Júcar River Basin, Spain, including climate change effects

Cited by 54 publications

References 5 publications

Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions

Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions

Dynamical versus statistical downscaling for the generation of regional climate change scenarios at a Western Mediterranean basin: the Jucar river district

Key issues for determining the exploitable water resources in a Mediterranean river basin

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