Dynamical versus statistical downscaling for the generation of regional climate change scenarios at a Western Mediterranean basin: the Jucar river district

Abstract

IWA PublishingChirivella Osma, V.; Capilla Romá, JE.; Pérez-Martín, MÁ. (2016) This paper analyses how dynamic downscaling improves climate change scenarios statistically based. The study area is the Jucar River Basin (JB), with results from ECHAM5 GCM, and a close time frame 2010-40 appropriated for decision-making. The dynamic downscaling is performed with the Regional Model (RCM) RegCM3. It is applied to a coarse grid over the Iberian Peninsula, and then to a finer grid over the JB. The RCM is customized to reproduce Western Mediterranean climatic conditions using the convective precipitation scheme of Grell; the non-convective scheme is customized changing the default RH min and C ptt parameters to reproduce precipitations originated by largerscale atmospheric circulations.The RCM results, compared to current official Spanish AEMET scenarios -statistically based -reproduce much better historical data (used to verify scenarios generation). They foresee a 21.0 % precipitation decrease for 2010-40, compared to previous ECHAM4 predictions with statistical downscaling (-6.64 %). Most significant reductions in February, September and October. Average estimated temperature increase is 0.75 °C, with high increments in July (+3.05 °C) and August (+1.89 °C).

Anthropogenic impact on nitrification dynamics in coastal waters of the Mediterranean Sea

“…Climate change will therefore have a greater impact in this second step. In addition, some studies forecast an important precipitation loss in the Jucar area (Chirivella et al, 2016;Miró et al, 2018) which would considerably reduce the riverine inputs of ammonium and other forms of nitrogen. The decrease in ammonium concentrations would have a direct effect on the rate of nitrification.…”

Future trends of dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations in Northwestern Mediterranean coastal waters under climate change

“…Both climate change and agricultural practices have significant impacts on nitrate concentrations in the Ebro basin, while phosphate concentrations are mainly driven by agricultural and industrial practices (Aguilera et al, 2015). In the case of the Jucar River Basin District (Southeast of Spain), temperatures are expected to increase up to 4.86°C in summer by 2040 (Chirivella et al, 2016) and consequently alter nitrogen transformation processes (Temino-Boes et al, 2019).…”

Risk Management as a Basis for Integrated Water Cycle Management in Kazakhstan

“…Chirivella et al (2015) show the results and methodology of a study in which dynamic and statistical downscaling methodologies are compared.…”