Germany’s decision to phase out coal by 2038 lags behind citizens’ timing preferences

Rinscheid, Adrian; Wüstenhagen, Rolf

doi:10.1038/s41560-019-0460-9

Cited by 46 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…In essence, the values 1-4 indicate opposition to the proposed policy package, while the values 5-7 indicate support for the policy package. This coding scheme, in line with previous studies 30,37 , provides conservative and hence more externally valid estimates of feasible policy packages, given that we only consider packages respondents clearly support (that is, awarded a rating of 5 or higher). The results presented in Figs.…”

Section: Policy Package Attributes and Levelsmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…1). To provide conservative and easy-tointerpret estimates of politically feasible policy packages (as in previous studies 30,37 ), we dichotomized the seven-point Likert rating into a binary variable using the median (4) as the cut-off value (see Methods for details). Therefore, our measure indicates the point at which respondents support a policy proposal at ≥5 on the seven-point rating scale.…”

Section: Policy Design and Packaging Effects Vary Across Countriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Policy packaging can make food system transformation feasible

et al. 2020

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ractitioners and scientists are calling on governments to regulate and incentivize sustainable food consumption and production 1-5. In addition to supply-side measures that foster sustainable production methods, many advocate demand-side policies that target consumption behaviour 3,5-7. Demand-side policies are regarded as paramount for reaching the climate change mitigation target set in the Paris Agreement, reducing the risks of climate tipping points and preventing 'carbon leakage' (that is, avoiding an increase in imports of emission-intensive food products as a substitute for reducing the domestic production of these commodities) 6-9. Researchers also suggest packaging (that is, systematically bundling) policy instruments on both the demand and supply side 3,5,10-12 to combine multiple marginal gains 13 and accelerate the sustainability transformation of the food system 1-5. Arguably, the main hurdle to implementing such measures is not technical but political, with political feasibility challenges stemming from insufficient public acceptance of policy interventions 6,8,11,14,15. Environmental policy analysts usually anticipate trade-offs between problem-solving effectiveness and political feasibility 8,11,15,16. While policy experts consider stringent policies to be more effective at reducing environmental impacts 17-19 , public policy specialists often note that public opposition and political risks are higher when governments deploy policies that citizens perceive to be costly and as interfering with their personal consumption choices 8,11,16,20,21. To identify environmental policies with the potential to be both effective and politically feasible, it is thus important to investigate public support for sustainable food policies that are likely to become publicly salient and contested. To study public support for different policy packages aimed at reducing the consumption of meat and fish products, we carried out a survey-embedded conjoint choice experiment in China, Germany and the United States (total n = 4,874), using quota sampling to ensure representativeness in terms of age, employment status, gender, income and region (see Methods). These countries were selected for their importance in global food production and consumption, as well as their diversity in terms of socioeconomic, cultural and political systems. Specifically, they are among the world's largest producers and consumers of meat and fish products; hence, they exert a major environmental impact 22,23. This experimental approach allowed us to evaluate public support for specific and more complex policy designs in the form of policy packages 11,24. Thus, our study design mimics realistic choice situations 25,26 and generates new insights about policy packaging that go above and beyond those of current research that analyses citizens' preferences for policy measures in isolation. In what follows, we show how policy packaging, in contrast with single policy instruments, can help to mitigate the potential trade-off between political feasibility ...

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Section: Policy Package Attributes and Levelsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Policy Design and Packaging Effects Vary Across Countriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Policy packaging can make food system transformation feasible

et al. 2020

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“…Addressing the key factors, the scenario is driven by socio-economic and economic key factors such as the expectation that fossil fuels are needed to sustain the increasing energy demand. in line with preferences of German voters as well as a wider public who favor the early coal phase-out within the next 10 years (Rinscheid and Wüstenhagen, 2019). In comparison to the MCAS, the phase-out by 2030 is not scheduled within the proposal by the Coal Commission.…”

Section: Delaying Climate Action: "Back To Normality"mentioning

confidence: 99%

Stranded Asset Risk and Political Uncertainty: The Impact of the Coal Phase-out on the German Coal Industry

Breitenstein

Anke²,

Nguyen

et al. 2020

SSRN Journal

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We assess the value of stranded coal-fired power plants in Germany due to the critical phaseout by 2038. Within a Monte Carlo simulation, the scenarios under consideration (a slow decommissioning at the end of the technical lifetime in 2061, the highly probable phase-out by 2038, and an accelerated phase-out by 2030) are additionally assigned distributions to display the uncertainty of future developments. The results show an overall stranded asset value of €0.4 billion given the phase-out by 2038 and additional €14.3 billion if the phase-out is brought forward by eight years. This study also depicts the impacts of carbon pricing and the feed-in from renewable energy sources on the merit order and eventually the deterioration in economic conditions for hard coal and lignite power plants. Lastly, we illustrate immediate concerns for share prices of affected companies and contributes to closing the research gap between stranded physical and financial assets.

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“…While our study is about policies that entail implications for most citizens' everyday behaviours, temporal preferences for climate policies in sectors that carry less behavioural relevance might differ. For instance, Rinscheid and Wüstenhagen (2019) found that Germans prefer a phase-out of coal-fired power plants by 2025 over 2030 or later dates. Taken together, these findings call for further research on temporal perceptions in the field of climate policy and beyond.…”

Section: Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fast track or Slo-Mo? Public support and temporal preferences for phasing out fossil fuel cars in the United States

2019

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Policies to phase out fossil fuel cars are key to averting dangerous and irreversible changes to the earth's climate. Given the potential impacts of such policies on every-day routines and behaviours, the factors that might increase or decrease their public acceptance require investigation. Here we study the role of specific policy design features in shaping Americans' preferences for policy proposals to phase out fossil fuel cars. In light of the urgency of action against climate change, we are specifically interested in citizens' preferences with respect to the timing of phase-out policies.Based on a demographically representative sample of 1,520 American residents rating 24,320 hypothetical policy scenarios in a conjoint experiment, we find that Americans prefer phase-out policies to be implemented no later than 2030. Policy features other than timing are also important:higher policy costs significantly reduce public support; subsidies for alternative technologies are preferred over taxes and bans; and policy co-benefits in terms of pollution reduction increase public support only when they are substantial. The study also investigates the role of individual characteristics in shaping policy preferences, finding that perceived psychological distance of climate change and party identification influence policy preferences. The results of this study have important implications for the political feasibility of rapid decarbonization initiatives like the 'Green New Deal'that are now being discussed in the US and beyond. Among these is the insight that smart sequencing of policies (early implementation of subsidies for low-emission technologies, followed by tax increases and/or bans) might help ensure majority support for a fossil fuel car phase-out.

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Germany’s decision to phase out coal by 2038 lags behind citizens’ timing preferences

Cited by 46 publications

References 42 publications

Policy packaging can make food system transformation feasible

Policy packaging can make food system transformation feasible

Stranded Asset Risk and Political Uncertainty: The Impact of the Coal Phase-out on the German Coal Industry

Fast track or Slo-Mo? Public support and temporal preferences for phasing out fossil fuel cars in the United States

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