Geographical variations in infant and child mortality in West Africa: a geo-additive discrete-time survival modelling

Gayawan, Ezra; Adarabioyo, Mumini Idowu; Okewole, Dorcas Modupe; Fashoto, Stephen Gbenga; Ukaegbu, Joel C.

doi:10.1186/s41118-016-0009-8

Cited by 31 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 47 publications

(66 reference statements)

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“…Nevertheless, such rates are still high in comparison to the United States and Canada, where the figures declined, during the aforesaid years, from 6.2 to 5.7, and from 4.9 to 4.4, respectively. This paper focuses on the modelling of child mortality risk trends across different geographical areas, with the purpose of contributing with the increasing international interest in modelling the spatial structure of such problem [6]- [9]. Within this line of research, Gayawan et al [6] [6] illustrated the regional variations of child mortality among ten West African countries, finding some clusters of higher child mortality in northwest and northeast Nigeria.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This paper focuses on the modelling of child mortality risk trends across different geographical areas, with the purpose of contributing with the increasing international interest in modelling the spatial structure of such problem [6]- [9]. Within this line of research, Gayawan et al [6] [6] illustrated the regional variations of child mortality among ten West African countries, finding some clusters of higher child mortality in northwest and northeast Nigeria. In the same line of thought, Jimenez-Soto et al [7] [7] showed the disparities among child mortality across rural-urban locations and regions in Cambodia, and analogous findings, additionally including variations within inter and inintra regions, were made in Papua, New Guinea [8] [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling Local Patterns of Child Mortality Risk. A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

Lome-Hurtado

Mendoza

Trujillo

2020

Preprint

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Background: Globally, child mortality rate is still high; however, this figure is susceptible to be reduced implementing proper spatially-targeted health public policies. Due to its alarming rate in comparison to North American standards, child mortality is a particular health concern in Mexico. Despite this fact, there remains a dearth of studies that address its spatio-temporal identification in the country. The aims of this study are i) to model the evolution of child mortality risk at the municipality level in Greater Mexico City, (ii) to identify municipalities with high, medium, and low risk over time, and (iii) using municipality trends, to ascertain potential high-risk municipalities. Methods: In order to control for the space-time patterns of data, the study performs a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis. This methodology permits the modelling of the geographical variation of child mortality risk across municipalities, within the studied time span. Results: The analysis shows that most of the high-risk municipalities were in the east, along with a few in the north and west areas of Greater Mexico City. In some of them, it is possible to distinguish an increasing trend in child mortality risk. The outcomes highlight municipalities currently presenting a medium risk but liable to become high risk, given their trend, after the studied period. Finally, the likelihood of child mortality risk illustrates an overall decreasing tendency throughout the 7-year studied period. Conclusions: The identification of high-risk municipalities and risk trends may provide a useful input for policy-makers seeking to reduce the incidence of child mortality. The results provide evidence that support the use of geographical targeting in policy interventions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Local Patterns of Child Mortality Risk. A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

Lome-Hurtado

Mendoza

Trujillo

2020

Preprint

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“…Sub-Saharan African countries also registered remarkable decline since year 2000, but this progress was insufficient to reach the Millennium Development Goal (MDG 4) target of a two-third reduction in under-5 mortality rate by year 2015, and is unlikely, in the present state, to attain the sustainable development goal target of a neonatal mortality rate of 12 deaths per 1000 live birth by 2030. West African countries have been identified as the major contributors to child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, recording more than double the case recorded in southern or northern Africa [1,2]. Apart from malnutrition, leading causes of death among young children in Africa, like in most developing countries, have been identified to include preterm birth complications, malaria and non-malaria febrile, pneumonia, birth asphyxia, HIV/AIDS, and diarrhea [3,4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Spatial Patterns of Common Childhood Morbidity in Six Neighboring West African Countries

Gayawan¹,

Aladeniyi²,

Oladuti³

et al. 2019

JEGH

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Children in developing countries have continued to suffer morbidity and mortality arising from a few illnesses. This study was designed to examine the within and between spatial variations in childhood morbidity from cough, fever, and diarrhea among six West African countries in a manner that transcends geographical boundaries. Data from six countries including their geographical boundaries were obtained from Demographic and Health Surveys. The spatial modelling was through Bayesian models and appropriate prior distributions were assigned to the different parameters of the model. Parameter estimation was through integrated nested Laplace approximation. Results show similar significant spatial distributions for the three illnesses, and they demonstrate that children in Benin Republic and Mali are less likely to suffer from these illnesses, whereas higher likelihood were obtained in the case of Cote d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Togo, and some parts of Ghana. The nonlinear effects of child's age show that the risks of contracting the illnesses peak among children aged 10-14 months while, as the mothers advance in age, their children have reduced risks. Breastfeeding and a woman's working status and education are among the significant factors that either aggravate or prevent these illnesses in the West African countries. The results pinpointed regions of the West African countries with high and low risks of the illnesses, and this would enhance intervention strategies of policy makers and international donors in the subregion.

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“…There has been an increasing interest in recent years to take into account the modelling of the geographical dimension of children mortality risk [6]- [9]. Gayawan et al [6] illustrated the regional variations on children mortality among 10 West African countries. They found some clusters of higher child mortality in northwest and northeast of Nigeria.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Local Patterns of Children Mortality. A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

Lome-Hurtado

Mendoza

Trujillo

2019

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: The number of death children at the international scale are still high, but with proper spatially-targeted health public policies this number could be reduced. In Mexico, children mortality is a particular health concern due to its alarming rate all throughout North America. The aims of this study are i) to model the change of children mortality risk at the municipality level, (ii) to identify municipalities with high, medium and low risk over time and (iii) to ascertain potential high-risk municipalities across time, using local trends of each municipality in Greater Mexico City. Methods: The study uses Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis to control for space-time patterns of data. This allow to model the geographical variation of the municipalities within the time span studied. Results: The analysis shows that most of the high-risk municipalities are in the north, west, and some in the east; some of such municipalities show an increasing children mortality risk over time. The outcomes highlight some municipalities which show a medium risk currently but are likely to become high risk along the study period. Finally, the odds of children mortality risk illustrate a decreasing tendency over the 7-year framework. Conclusions: Identification of high-risk municipalities may provide a useful input to policy-makers seeking out to reduce the incidence of children mortality, since it would provide evidence to support geographical targeting for policy interventions.

show abstract

Geographical variations in infant and child mortality in West Africa: a geo-additive discrete-time survival modelling

Cited by 31 publications

References 47 publications

Modelling Local Patterns of Child Mortality Risk. A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

Modelling Local Patterns of Child Mortality Risk. A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

Investigating the Spatial Patterns of Common Childhood Morbidity in Six Neighboring West African Countries

Modelling Local Patterns of Children Mortality. A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

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