Geographical expansion of Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Nordic Seas from 2007 to 2016 was primarily driven by stock size and constrained by low temperatures

Abstract

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Changing fish distributions challenge the effective management of European fisheries

“…Although the drivers of distribution changes were not formally addressed in this study, our findings indicate that the distribution of the 19 species considered here is at least partly affected by both changes in areas of suitable habitat (possibly as a result of warming sea temperature) and by changes in abundance (due to reduced fishing) via density‐dependent habitat selection occurring within these areas. In fact, this interaction between habitat and abundance was specifically identified for two of the most widely spread species in the northeast Atlantic, mackerel and hake, the distribution of which was found to be driven by stock size but constrained by thermal habitat (Baudron and Fernandes , Olafsdottir et al ).…”

Potential Consequences of Climate and Management Scenarios for the Northeast Atlantic Mackerel Fishery

“…This in part because, despite agreeing on a management strategy in 2015, the European Union, Norway and the Faroe Islands have since all declared quotas above those advised by the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES) (ICES, 2019a). Management of NEAM is further complicated by the fact that the spatial distribution of the stock in the summer months has recently expanded (Berge et al, 2015;Ólafsdóttir et al, 2018). It is now found in substantial numbers in the jurisdictions of Iceland and Greenland which previously had no share of the catch (Kooij et al, 2015;Olafsdottir et al, 2016).…”

“…Projections using Earth System Models (ESMs) indicate that there will be changes in temperature and primary productivity in the North Atlantic over the twentyfirst century (Gregg et al, 2003;Henson et al, 2013;Alexander et al, 2018). As mackerel population dynamics, such as spatial distribution and recruitment, are highly sensitive to these drivers (Runge et al, 1999;Borja et al, 2002;Overholtz et al, 2011;Plourde et al, 2014;Pacariz et al, 2016;Nikolioudakis et al, 2018;Ólafsdóttir et al, 2018), it is important to include their effects when making predictions about the future state of the stock. Recent years have seen the development of a first wave of marine ecological forecast products (Payne et al, 2017) 1 .…”

Modelling Atlantic mackerel spawning habitat suitability and its future distribution in the north‐west Atlantic

“…In particular, the combining effects of zooplankton and temperature conditions have been shown to affect habitat shift and population distributional range of migratory species (Broms, Melle, & Horne, ; Secor, ). For example, changes in water temperature and zooplankton abundances constrained mackerel geographical expansion in the north‐east Atlantic whereas they explained the north‐eastward shift of larval habitat suitability of the southern contingent in the north‐west Atlantic (McManus et al, ; Olafsdottir et al, ). Changes in distribution have not been reported for the northern contingent of north‐west Atlantic mackerel, but it is hypothesized that distribution changes have and might continue to occur due to previous and anticipated changes in the environmental conditions such as temperature and zooplankton abundance, composition and phenology, which are known to impact mackerel condition and recruitment in the GSL (Castonguay et al, ; Plourde et al, ).…”