Geographic Variation in the Cumulative Risk of Imprisonment and Parental Imprisonment in the United States

Abstract

This article reports estimates of the cumulative risk of imprisonment and parental imprisonment for demographic groups in four regions and four states. Regional and state-level cumulative risks were markedly higher for African Americans and Latinos than for whites. African Americans faced the highest cumulative risks of imprisonment in the Midwest, Northeast, and two southern states. Latinos were most likely to serve time in state prison in the West, where their cumulative risk was comparable to that of African Americans. Latino children had a relatively high risk of having a parent imprisoned in the Northeast as well. Racial disparities in the cumulative risk of imprisonment and parental imprisonment did not increase linearly with increases in the cumulative risk for all groups.

The Growth, Scope, and Spatial Distribution of People With Felony Records in the United States, 1948–2010

“…LISA analysis also shows significant clusters of low African American rates in the Southeast and Northeast. Although a direct comparison is confounded by differences in methods, 9 this pattern is in line with Muller and Wildeman’s (2016) findings that the cumulative risk of incarceration for African Americans is highest in the Midwest but lower in the South and Northeast.…”

“…This lack of significant spatial clustering in later decades may reflect states’ diverse paths in expanding the use of probation over this period that did not necessarily follow the same patterns as the growth in incarceration and are difficult to predict (Phelps 2017). These results also highlight an important difference between our analysis, which includes all felony convictions, and that of Muller and Wildeman (2016), which focused exclusively on incarceration. Some states, such as Minnesota, have low incarceration rates but much higher felony probation rates.…”

“…Scholars have also chronicled the spatial concentration of incarceration and correctional supervision (Clear 2007; Justice Mapping Center 2010; Muller and Wildeman 2016; Travis 2005). Exposure to the criminal justice system varies both within and across states.…”

“… 9 We caution against a direct comparison between our article and Muller and Wildeman’s (2016) because of differences in methods and the outcome of interest. Muller and Wildeman (2016) used point-in-time projection, and our analysis uses release cohorts over a much longer period.…”

“…Muller and Wildeman (2016) used point-in-time projection, and our analysis uses release cohorts over a much longer period. As Muller and Wildeman (2016:1505) noted, these methodological differences hinder drawing direct comparisons between the two types of analyses. In addition, Muller and Wildeman estimated risk of incarceration only, whereas we estimate felony convictions with or without a sentence of incarceration.…”