Geographic Potential for Outbreaks of Marburg Hemorrhagic Fever

Abstract

Abstract. Marburg virus represents one of the least well-known of the hemorrhagic fever-causing viruses worldwide; in particular, its geographic potential in Africa remains quite mysterious. Ecologic niche modeling was used to explore the geographic and ecologic potential of Marburg virus in Africa. Model results permitted a reinterpretation of the geographic point of infection in the initiation of the 1975 cases in Zimbabwe, and also anticipated the potential for cases in Angola, where a large outbreak recently (2004)(2005) occurred. The geographic potential for additional outbreaks is outlined, including in several countries in which the virus is not known. Overall, results demonstrate that ecologic niche modeling can be a powerful tool in understanding geographic distributions of species and other biologic phenomena such as zoonotic disease transmission from natural reservoir populations.

Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling

“…Although correlational in nature, these models offer an important capacity for studies in ecology and biogeography. Once envelopes are estimated, they can be applied to a variety of interesting questions, including discovery of new populations (e.g., Feria andPeterson 2002, Bourg et al 2005), discovery of previously unknown species (e.g., Raxworthy et al 2003), conservation planning (e.g., Williams et al 2005, Wilson et al 2005a, Arau´jo et al 2011a, assessment of potential geographic ranges of invasive species (e.g., Broennimann et al 2007, Peterson et al 2008b, Villemant et al 2011, mapping risk of disease transmission (e.g., Peterson et al 2006Peterson et al , 2007, forecasting effects of climate change on species' distributions (e.g., Thuiller et al 2005, Lawler et al 2009) and on phylogenetic diversity , and identifying historical refugia for biodiversity (e.g., Waltari et al 2007, Carnaval and Moritz 2008, Vega et al 2010. Numerous recent reviews have been published on different aspects of this field (e.g., Guisan and Thuiller 2005, Arau´jo and Guisan 2006, Heikkinen et al 2006, Latimer et al 2006, Arau´jo and New 2007, Austin 2007, Jime´nez-Valverde et al 2008, Nogue´s-Bravo 2009, Huntley et al 2010, Miller 2010, Pereira et al 2010) and the topic has seen discussion in ''perspectives'' articles Rahbek 2006, Thuiller 2007), edited books (Scott et al 2002), and textbooks (Franklin 2009.…”

Assessment of Reporting Bias forClostridium difficileHospitalizations, United States

“…When a researcher uses these data, he or she might wish to analyze occurrence of this disease with a spatial precision of 1 km; e.g., applying a fi lter to exclude those data records too imprecise for this study, he or she would exclude the data record for the salesperson (because the salesperson may have contracted the disease in another sector of the state) but include that for the housebound neighbor. Alternatively, the researcher may include variable degrees of precision in the analysis according each to record a precision or certainty corresponding to its error radius, as in recent spatial analyses of Marburg virus transmission risk (4) and climate change effects on plague and tularemia transmission (5).…”

“…In the 2000-2005 data from the National Inpatient Sample data from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (3,4), I identifi ed hospitalizations for gastrointestinal infections caused by C. diffi cile, Salmonella, rotavirus, and other unspecifi ed infectious agents, using the corresponding diagnosis codes from the International Classifi cation of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modifi cation. I obtained censal and intercensal data on the numbers of the U.S. population from 2000 through 2005 from the U.S. Census Bureau (5).…”

Recent advances inEbolavirusvaccine development

“…21,22 While the precise mechanism of natural virus transmission to humans and non-human primates (NHPs) remains elusive, there are some indications that bats may constitute the natural reservoir and primary source of infection. [23][24][25] To date, there have been approximately 1,900 confirmed cases of human EBOV infection with over 1,340 deaths.…”