Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling

Araújo, Miguel B.; Peterson, A. Townsend

doi:10.1890/11-1930.1

Cited by 895 publications

(830 citation statements)

References 156 publications

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“…''Fill'' refers to the total fit of the matrix. Columns ''NODFcolumns'' and ''NODFrows'' refer to the NODF as measured only according to matrix columns and rows, respectively, while ''NODF'' refers to the total NODF variables, but a minimum set of available parameters have been chosen to avoid overfitting, which in turn may result in artifacts (Beaumont et al 2005;Heikkinen et al 2006;Araújo and Peterson 2012). The fact that the total contribution of the direct abiotic variables (i.e., soil, landscape and climate variables) in the model reaches 10.8 %, whereas bare soil and plant cover attain 14.1 and 0.1 %, respectively, also indicates that patterns resulting from disturbance and biotic interactions may also be important.…”

Section: Probability Of Occurrence and Biotic Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fine-scale spatial patterns of the Tertiary relict Zelkova abelicea (Ulmaceae) indicate possible processes contributing to its persistence to climate changes

Bosque¹,

Adamogianni²,

Bariotakis³

et al. 2013

Reg Environ Change

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In this paper, the fine-scale spatial patterns of the Tertiary relict Zelkova abelicea (Lam.) Boiss. were studied (1) to reveal processes that contributed to its persistence to climate changes and (2) to assist future conservation planning, with the purpose of shifting the attention of conservation practitioners from patterns to processes. Results of the fine-scale spatial patterns of Z. abelicea indicate that the species tolerates disturbance and/or tracks changes resulting from disturbance in the range of its distribution through morphological and reproductive plasticity. In addition, our study indicates that Z. abelicea populations are conserved in the absence of metapopulation structure and that the species participates in plant-plant interactions through facilitation processes. Hence, the persistence of the species to climate changes seems to be more complicated and multifactorial than a linear and plain view of species survival in climate refugial areas, and therefore calls for a consideration of the processes revealed in this paper in future conservation planning.

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Section: Probability Of Occurrence and Biotic Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fine-scale spatial patterns of the Tertiary relict Zelkova abelicea (Ulmaceae) indicate possible processes contributing to its persistence to climate changes

Bosque¹,

Adamogianni²,

Bariotakis³

et al. 2013

Reg Environ Change

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“…Forest trees are genetically adapted to a range of climate conditions [1], referred to as their climate niche [2,3] or bioclimatic envelope [4]. A rapidly changing climate is moving these climate niches away from their current species ranges.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L.) for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

Wang

Liu

et al. 2017

Forests

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Climate niche modeling has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees at the species level. However, geographically divergent tree populations are expected to respond differently to climate change. Considering intraspecific local adaptation in modeling species responses to climate change will thus improve the credibility and usefulness of climate niche models, particularly for genetic resources management. In this study, we used five Platycladus orientalis (L.) seed zones (Northwestern; Northern; Central; Southern; and Subtropical) covering the entire species range in China. A climate niche model was developed and used to project the suitable climatic conditions for each of the five seed zones for current and various future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Our results indicated that the Subtropical seed zone would show consistent reduction for all climate change scenarios. The remaining seed zones, however, would experience various degrees of expansion in suitable habitat relative to their current geographic distributions. Most of the seed zones would gain suitable habitats at their northern distribution margins and higher latitudes. Thus, we recommend adjusting the current forest management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

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“…Although some process-based models can successfully integrate dispersal and metapopulation dynamics into forecasts of species geographic ranges (Anderson et al, 2009;Fordham et al, 2013), most of the currently available models are too complex in parameterization and validation in model application (Pearson and Dawson, 2003). The bioclimatic envelope models have various limitations (such as the assumption of equilibrium, the assumption of complete sampling of species niche, and insufficient inclusion of adaptation, evolution, and dispersal), they are still used by many researchers (Hannah et al, 2002;Huntley et al, 2010;Araújo and Peterson, 2012). With a good understanding of the modelling techniques, careful choice of explanatory variables, and appropriate model validation and testing, these models can still provide important information on the potential impact of climate change on species range shifts, and help inform conservation decisions in a changing climate (Hijmans and Graham, 2006;Araújo and Peterson, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change threatens giant panda protection in the 21st century

Wong

et al. 2015

Biological Conservation

104

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a b s t r a c tIt is increasingly recognized that biotic interactions could play a significant role in species distribution modelling. To assess the conservation effectiveness of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) reserves in a changing climate, we combined both biotic variables (food availability) and abiotic (climatic and geographic) to project the potential changes of distribution and quality of giant panda habitats using the most recent IPCC-CMIP5 climate scenarios. Our results suggested that climate change would adversely affect giant pandas through habitat degradation, in that: (1) 52.9-71.3% of the current habitats could be lost; (2) the giant panda habitats could become more fragmented and isolated; and (3) both the quantity and quality of habitats in the current giant panda reserves could substantially contract, and approximately 20% of the reserves could lose all habitat representations in this century. Additionally, we found that climate change would make it increasingly necessary to translocate small populations of pandas from the southwestern to the northwestern part of the current distribution range to ensure population viability. Our results suggest the need for immediate change in current conservation policies and formulating adaptation plans for giant panda conservation in a changing climate.

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Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling

Cited by 895 publications

References 156 publications

Fine-scale spatial patterns of the Tertiary relict Zelkova abelicea (Ulmaceae) indicate possible processes contributing to its persistence to climate changes

Fine-scale spatial patterns of the Tertiary relict Zelkova abelicea (Ulmaceae) indicate possible processes contributing to its persistence to climate changes

Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L.) for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

Climate change threatens giant panda protection in the 21st century

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