Geodetic mass balance record with rigorous uncertainty estimates deduced from aerial photographs and lidar data – Case study from Drangajökull ice cap, NW Iceland

Abstract

Abstract. In this paper we describe how recent high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) can be used to extract glacier surface DEMs from old aerial photographs and to evaluate the uncertainty of the mass balance record derived from the DEMs. We present a case study for Drangajökull ice cap, NW Iceland. This ice cap covered an area of 144 km2 when it was surveyed with airborne lidar in 2011. Aerial photographs spanning all or most of the ice cap are available from survey flights in 1946, 1960, 1975, 1985, 1994 and 2005. All ground control points used to constrain the orientation of the aerial photographs were obtained from the high-resolution lidar DEM. The lidar DEM was also used to estimate errors of the extracted photogrammetric DEMs in ice- and snow-free areas, at nunataks and outside the glacier margin. The derived errors of each DEM were used to constrain a spherical semivariogram model, which along with the derived errors in ice- and snow-free areas were used as inputs into 1000 sequential Gaussian simulations (SGSims). The simulations were used to estimate the possible bias in the entire glaciated part of the DEM and the 95 % confidence level of this bias. This results in bias correction varying in magnitude between 0.03 m (in 1975) and 1.66 m (in 1946) and uncertainty values between ±0.21 m (in 2005) and ±1.58 m (in 1946). Error estimation methods based on more simple proxies would typically yield 2–4 times larger error estimates. The aerial photographs used were acquired between late June and early October. An additional seasonal bias correction was therefore estimated using a degree-day model to obtain the volume change between the start of 2 glaciological years (1 October). This correction was largest for the 1960 DEM, corresponding to an average elevation change of −3.5 m or approx. three-quarters of the volume change between the 1960 and the 1975 DEMs. The total uncertainty of the derived mass balance record is dominated by uncertainty in the volume changes caused by uncertainties of the SGSim bias correction, the seasonal bias correction and the interpolation of glacier surface where data are lacking. The record shows a glacier-wide mass balance rate of Ḃ = −0.26 ± 0.04 m w.e. a−1 for the entire study period (1946–2011). We observe significant decadal variability including periods of mass gain, peaking in 1985–1994 with Ḃ = 0.27 ± 0.11 m w.e. a−1. There is a striking difference when Ḃ is calculated separately for the western and eastern halves of Drangajökull, with a reduction of eastern part on average ∼ 3 times faster than the western part. Our study emphasizes the need for applying rigorous geostatistical methods for obtaining uncertainty estimates of geodetic mass balance, the importance of seasonal corrections of DEMs from glaciers with high mass turnover and the risk of extrapolating mass balance record from one glacier to another even over short distances.

Occurrence, evolution and ice content of ice‐debris complexes in the Ak‐Shiirak, Central Tien Shan revealed by geophysical and remotely‐sensed investigations

“…The standard deviation is a possible measure of uncertainty (Höhle and Höhle, ). These simple statistics are conservative estimates of the uncertainty (Magnússon et al, ), but are sufficient for our purpose as we do not want to assess the elevation changes in detail but rather to obtain a reasonable limit of detection as additional information for interpretation of the characteristics and changes of the ice‐debris landforms.…”

Spatial Variability in Patterns of Glacier Change across the Manaslu Range, Central Himalaya

“…The stochastic error was based on the standard error and the mean elevation difference on stable terrain. Magnusson et al (2016) showed how standard methods for quantifying DEM differencing uncertainties neglect the spatial dependence of DEM errors, and as such typically overestimate uncertainties. It should therefore be noted that our uncertainty analysis is conservative.…”

Reduced melt on debris-covered glaciers: investigations from Changri Nup Glacier, Nepal

“…The uncertainty of the elevation difference between the two DEMs is assessed from the statistical distribution of the elevation differences over stable terrain (Magnússon et al, 2016;Rolstad et al, 2009). The standard deviation of elevation differences on stable ground (σ STABLE ) is 3.6 m. The decorrelation length estimated from the semivariogram is approximately 50 m, which gives 604 independent pixels for the entire debris-covered tongue (n GLA ), 330 independent pixels for the debris-covered tongue common with the photogrammetric survey (n GLA_COM ), and 668 independent pixels on the stable zone (n STABLE ).…”