Genetic load, eco-evolutionary feedback and extinction in metapopulations

Abstract

Fragmented landscapes pose a significant threat to the persistence of species as they are highly susceptible to heightened risk of extinction due to the combined effects of genetic and demographic factors such as genetic drift and demographic stochasticity. This paper explores the intricate interplay between genetic load and extinction risk within metapopulations with a focus on understanding the impact of eco-evolutionary feedback mechanisms. We distinguish between two models of selection: soft selection, characterised by subpopulations maintaining carrying capacity despite load, and hard selection, where load can significantly affect population size. Within the soft selection framework, we investigate the impact of gene flow on genetic load at a single locus, while also considering the effect of selection strength and dominance coefficient. We subsequently build on this to examine how gene flow influences both population size and load under hard selection as well as identify critical thresholds for metapopulation persistence. Our analysis employs the diffusion, semi-deterministic and effective migration approximations. Our findings reveal that under soft selection, even modest levels of migration can significantly alleviate the burden of load. In sharp contrast, with hard selection, a much higher degree of gene flow is required to mitigate load and prevent the collapse of the metapopulation. Overall, this study sheds light into the crucial role migration plays in shaping the dynamics of genetic load and extinction risk in fragmented landscapes, offering valuable insights for conservation strategies and the preservation of diversity in a changing world.