Background
Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing has dramatically changed the composition of prostate cancer, making it difficult to interpret incidence trends. New methods are needed to examine temporal trends in the incidence of “clinically significant” prostate cancer, and whether trends vary by race.
Objective
To conduct an in-depth analysis of incidence trends in “clinically significant” prostate cancer, defined as cases in which prostate cancer was the underlying cause of death within 10-years of diagnosis.
Design, Setting and Participants
We extracted incident prostate cancer cases during 1975–2002, as well as associated causes of death and survival through 2012, from 9 cancer registries in the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program database.
Measurements
We applied joinpoint regression analysis to identify when significant changes in trends occurred and age-period-cohort models to examine longitudinal and cross-sectional trends in the incidence of fatal prostate cancer.
Results and Limitations
Among 51,680 fatal prostate cancer cases, incidence increased 1% per year prior to 1992, declined 15% per year from 1992–1995, and further declined by 5% per year through 2002. Age-specific incidence rates of fatal disease decreased over 2% per year among men ≥60 years, yet rates remained relatively stable among men ≤55 years. Fatal disease rates were more than 2-fold higher in black men compared with white men, a racial disparity that increased to 4.2 fold among younger men.
Conclusions
The incidence of fatal prostate cancer has substantially declined after widespread PSA screening and treatment advances. Yet, rates of fatal disease among younger men have remained relatively stable, suggesting the need for additional attention on early-onset prostate cancer, especially among black men. The persistent black-to-white racial disparity observed in fatal prostate cancer underscores the need for a greater understanding of the causes for this difference so that strategies may be implemented to eliminate racial disparities.