General Circulation Model Output for Forest Climate Change Research and Applications

Cooter, Ellen J.; Eder, Brian K.; LeDuc, Sharon K.; Truppi, Lawrence E.

doi:10.2737/se-gtr-85

Cited by 17 publications

(13 citation statements)

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“…Based on output from General Circulation Models (i.e. tbe Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, tbe NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies model and tbe Oregon State University model) an increase in tbe annual air temperature of 2-3 °C is currently predicted for tbe soutb-eastem region of tbe USA (Cooter et al 1993). In tbis study, a 2 °C increase in air temperature did not significantly affect AIC relationships, mean daily rate of A, leaf phenology, morphology or growth.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result of the continued increase in the concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it is anticipated that the global mean annual air temperature will increase in the next 100 years (Watson et al 1990;Wigley & Raper 1992). In the south-eastern US, for a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration from 315 to 630 //mol mol"', a temperature increase of 2-3 °C has been predicted (Cooter et al 1993). It is well known that temperature affects the timing and rate of physiological Changes in air temperature are expected to interact with elevated CO2 concentrations to affect photosynthesis in a number of ways, including altering the ratio of oxygenation and carboxylation reactions of rubisco and the response to irradiance (Long 1991).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Combined effects of elevated CO₂ and air temperature on carbon assimilation of Pinus taeda trees

Teskey

1997

Plant Cell & Environment

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Branches of 22-year-old loblolly pine {Pinus taeda, L.) trees growing in a plantation were exposed to ambient CO2, ambient + 165 /imol moP' CO2 or ambient + 330 /imol moP' CO2 concentrations in combination witb ambient or ambient + 2 °C air temperatures for 3 years. Field measurements in tbe tbird year indicated tbat net carbon assimilation was enbanced in tbe elevated CO2 treatments in all seasons. On tbe basis of A/Cj curves, tbere was no indication of pbotosyntbetic down-regulation. Brancb growtb and leaf area also increased significantly in tbe elevated CO2 treatments. Tbe imposed 2 °C increase in air temperature only bad sligbt effects on net assimilation and growtb. Compared witb tbe ambient CO2 treatment, rates of net assimilation were ~1'6 times greater in tbe ambient + 165 /imol moP' CO2 treatment and 2*2 times greater in tbe ambient + 330 /imol moP' CO2 treatment. Tbese ratios did not cbange appreciably in measurements made in all four seasons even tbougb mean ambient air temperatures during tbe measurement periods ranged from 12-6 to 28-2 °C. Tbis indicated tbat tbe effect of elevated CO2 concentrations on net assimilation under field conditions was primarily additive. Tbe results also indicated tbat tbe effect of elevated CO2 (+ 165 or + 330 //mol moP') was mucb greater tban tbe effect of a 2 °C increase in air temperature on net assimilation and growtb in tbis species.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combined effects of elevated CO₂ and air temperature on carbon assimilation of Pinus taeda trees

Teskey

1997

Plant Cell & Environment

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“…Of the models, the United Kingdom model (UKMO) of Wilson and Mitchell (1987) tends to predict the largest effects (see Cooter et al 1993) and, therefore, was used herein to illustrate possible intraspecific responses. According to UKMO, British Columbia can expect an increase in mean annual temperature of -60C south of LT = 580 N, but, within latitudes of 58-60?…”

Section: Population Response Functionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetic Responses to Climate in Pinus contorta: Niche Breadth, Climate Change, and Reforestation

Rehfeldt¹,

Ying²,

Spittlehouse³

et al. 1999

Ecological Monographs

322

572

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“…The GISS scenario is most closely aligned with the expectations of future climate change (Cooter et al, 1993). Using the GCM scenarios across the region, predicted annual drainage may decrease by 1 percent to 66 percent (when predicted forest death was assumed to have no species replacement).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…The United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) (Wilson and Mitchell, 1987) and Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) (Hansen et al, 1983) GCMs were selected because of their common application and wide range of climate change predictions. Many GCMs predict increased precipitation across the southern U.S. (Cooter et al, 1993). A 2°C increase in average monthly air temperature represented a conservative estimate of global temperature change under doubled atmospheric CO2 (King et al, 1992).…”

Section: Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

REGIONAL HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE OF LOBLOLLY PINE TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES¹

McNulty¹,

Vose²,

Swank

1997

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Large deviations in average annual air temperatures and total annual precipitation were observed across the southern United States during the last 50 years, and these fluctuations could become even larger during the next century. We used PnET‐IIS, a monthly time‐step forest process model that uses soil, vegetation, and climate inputs to assess the influence of changing climate on southern U.S. pine forest water use. After model predictions of historic drainage were validated, the potential influences of climate change on loblolly pine forest water use was assessed across the region using historic (1951 to 1984) monthly precipitation and air temperature which were modified by two general circulation models (GCMs). The GCMs predicted a 3.2°C to 7.2°C increase in average monthly air temperature, a ‐24 percent to + 31 percent change in monthly precipitation and a ‐1 percent to + 3 percent change in annual precipitation. As a comparison to the GCMs, a minimum climate change scenario using a constant 2°C increase in monthly air temperature and a 20 percent increase in monthly precipitation was run in conjunction with historic climate data. Predicted changes in forest water drainage were highly dependent on the GCM used. PnET‐IIS predicted that along the northern range of loblolly pine, water yield would decrease with increasing leaf area, total evapotranspiration and soil water stress. However, across most of the southern U.S., PnET‐IIS predicted decreased leaf area, total evapotranspiration, and soil water stress with an associated increase in water yield. Depending on the GCM and geographic location, predicted leaf area decreased to a point which would no longer sustain loblolly pine forests, and thus indicated a decrease in the southern most range of the species within the region. These results should be evaluated in relation to other changing environmental factors (i.e., CO2 and O3) which are not present in the current model.

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General Circulation Model Output for Forest Climate Change Research and Applications

Cited by 17 publications

References 1 publication

Combined effects of elevated CO₂ and air temperature on carbon assimilation of Pinus taeda trees

Combined effects of elevated CO₂ and air temperature on carbon assimilation of Pinus taeda trees

Genetic Responses to Climate in Pinus contorta: Niche Breadth, Climate Change, and Reforestation

REGIONAL HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE OF LOBLOLLY PINE TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES¹

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General Circulation Model Output for Forest Climate Change Research and Applications

Cited by 17 publications

References 1 publication

Combined effects of elevated CO2 and air temperature on carbon assimilation of Pinus taeda trees

Combined effects of elevated CO2 and air temperature on carbon assimilation of Pinus taeda trees

Genetic Responses to Climate in Pinus contorta: Niche Breadth, Climate Change, and Reforestation

REGIONAL HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE OF LOBLOLLY PINE TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES1

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Combined effects of elevated CO₂ and air temperature on carbon assimilation of Pinus taeda trees

Combined effects of elevated CO₂ and air temperature on carbon assimilation of Pinus taeda trees

REGIONAL HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE OF LOBLOLLY PINE TO AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES¹