When fossil fuel energy was discovered, the timing and intensity of the resulting climate impacts depended on what the natural CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere was at that time. The natural CO 2 concentration is thought to be controlled by complex, slow-acting natural feedback mechanisms, and could easily have been different than it turned out to be. If the natural concentration had been a factor of two or more lower, the climate impacts of fossil fuel CO 2 release would have occurred about 50 or more years sooner, making it much more challenging for the developing human society to scientifically understand the phenomenon of anthropogenic climate change in time to prevent it.1 Background 1.1 What sets the natural atmospheric CO 2 concentration?In the year 1750, according to measurements made on bubbles trapped in ice retrieved in cores from the Antarctic ice sheet, the atmospheric CO 2 concentration was about 278 ppm (molecules per million molecules of dry air) (Barnola et al. 1987). The concentration drifted through a range down to about 260 through our interglacial Holocene period. Previously to that, the concentration dropped as low as 180 ppm as it fluctuated in synchrony with changes in global ice volume through the glacial / interglacial cycles. The reasons for the CO 2 changes are not well understood but generally assumed to arise from chemical or circulation changes in the ocean (Anderson et al. 2009).Deeper in the geologic past, atmospheric CO 2 rose and fell in response to slow changes in the continental configuration of the Earth's crust. On time scales of a million years and longer, the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere is thought to be set by a Bthermostat^mechanism involving the dissolution of igneous rocks on land, a process known as chemical weathering (Walker et al. 1981; Berner and Lasaga 1989). When some of the CaO (calcium oxide) The thermostat-generating feedback arises from the sensitivity of the chemical weathering reaction to Earth's climate, particularly the rate of precipitation and runoff from the continents. If the rate of chemical weathering removes CO 2 from the atmosphere faster than the volcanic degassing rate, the CO 2 concentration will fall, climate will cool, and the hydrological cycle will slow, until balance is reached at a theoretically stable equilibrium. By changing the susceptibility of the Earth to weatering, continental drift and mountain building drive slow changes from hot-house to glacial climate epochs. On shorter time scales, CO 2 can transiently fluctuate, temporarily deviating from steady state, as it did through the glacial/interglacial cycles of the last two million years.Climatic Change (2016) 138:1-11 DOI 10.1007/s10584-016-1725-The set point of the CO 2 thermostat depends on the intensity of sunlight received at the Earth's surface, among many other things (Berner and Lasaga 1989;Berner 1997). According to the Berner formulation, if the temperature at the surface of the sun were just 1 % hotter, or if Earth were just a few percent closer to ...