Fuzzy Probability Analysis of the Fatigue Resistance of Steel Structural Members Under Bending/Fuzi Tikimybinė Analizė Vertinant Lenkiamų Plieninių Elementų Atsparį Nuovargiui

Kala, Zdeněk

doi:10.3846/1392-3730.2008.14.67-72

Cited by 40 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 8 publications

(5 reference statements)

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“…The damage D i is a loss of containment due to a failure of the containment structure. The explosion is a distant one with respect to the exposed structure (Bulson 1997;Kala 2008). The fundamental natural period of the structure is assumed to be relatively small, as compared to the positive duration of the blast wave reflected by the structure.…”

Section: Exposure Situation and Prior Knowledgementioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Structures Subjected to Accidental Actions Using Crisp and Uncertain Fragility Functions

Vaidogas

Juocevičius

2009

Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

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An application of fragility functions to the assessment of potential damage due to an accidental action is analysed. The assessment is carried out as an estimation of the probability of a foreseeable damage event (damage probability). This probability is expressed as a mean value of a fragility function developed for the damage event under study. A Bayesian prior (posterior) distribution specified for this mean value is used as an estimate of the damage probability. The prior distribution is derived by transforming prior knowledge through the fragility function and “mapping” this knowledge on the scale of probability values. The technique of Bayesian bootstrap resampling is applied to update the prior distribution. The new information used for the updating consists of a relatively small number of experimental observations of the accidental action. To facilitate the updating, these observations are transformed into a fictitious statistical sample of fragility function values. The updating is first carried out with a fragility function which expresses aleatory uncertainty only. Then it is proposed how to perform the updating with the fragility function which quantifies both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This is done by discretising continuous distributions of the epistemic uncertainty related to values (parameters) of the fragility function. The proposed approach allows to utilise different sources of information for the damage assessment. A potential field of application of this approach is risk studies of hazardous industrial facilities. Santrauka Analizuojamas pažeidžiamumo funkcijų taikymas vertinant potencialius statybinių konstrukcijų pažeidimus avariniais poveikiais. Vertinimas atliekamas skaičiuojant galimos konstrukcijos pažaidos tikimybę. Ši tikimybė yra išreiškiama vidutine pažeidžiamumo funkcijos reikšme. Ta funkcija yra formuojama analizuojamam pažaidos įvykiui. Apriorinis ir aposteriorinis Bajeso skirstiniai yra taikomi pažaidos tikimybės reikšmei vertinti. Apriorinis skirstinys yra gaunamas pasinaudojant turima informacija apie avarinį poveikį ir transformuojant šią informaciją per pažeidžiamumo funkciją. Aposteriorinis skirstinys yra gaunamas pasitelkiant naują, eksperimentinę informaciją apie avarinį poveikį. Aposterioriniam skirstiniui gauti taikomas kartotinio statistinio ėmimo (būtstrapo) metodas. Naują informaciją sudaro eksperimentiniai avarinio poveikio charakteristikų matavimai, kurie tiksliai atitinka konstrukcijos ekspozicijos tiriamo poveikio situaciją. Apriorinis ir aposteriorinis skirstiniai išreiškia episteminį neapibrėžtumą vertinamos pažaidos tikimybės reikšmės atžvilgiu. Šie skirstiniai yra gaunami taikant tiek pažeidžiamumo funkciją, kuri išreiškia tik stochastinį neapibrėžtumą, tiek funkciją, kurios reikšmės yra neapibrėžtos epistemine prasme. Potenciali siūlomo metodo taikymo sritis yra pavojingų pramoninių objektų rizikos vertinimas.

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Section: Exposure Situation and Prior Knowledgementioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Structures Subjected to Accidental Actions Using Crisp and Uncertain Fragility Functions

Vaidogas

Juocevičius

2009

Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

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“…In case where QRA is carried out for such an object, the risk assessment should consider potential damage to structural parts of the object. This damage can be incorporated into the general framework of QRA (Vaidogas 2007a,b;Kala 2008). Many business activities generate risk of major accidents.…”

Section: Risk Of Industrial Accidents: a Brief View From The Standpoimentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable Development and Major Industrial Accidents: The Beneficial Role of Risk‐oriented Structural Engineering / Rizika Grindžiamos Konstrukcijų Inžinerijos Įtaka Mažinant Sunkių Pramonių Avarijų Poveikį Darniam Vystymuisi

Vaidogas

Juocevičius

2008

Technological and Economic Development of Economy

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abstract. Sustainable development can be restricted by major accidents which occur in hazardous industries. Almost every major accident may have negative influence on each of the three constituents of the sustainable development: social, environmental and economic part. A characteristic feature of the most of major accidents is severe damage to the structural systems built inside and outside of the industrial facility in which the accident happens. To avoid such accidents or at least to reduce their consequences, structural systems should be designed using a risk-based approach. On the level of detailed structural design, a formal measure of risk should be introduced and applied to express the effectiveness of the structural solution in terms of accident mitigation and minimization of potential consequences. The structural design should involve the consideration of possible accident scenarios and positive or negative contribution of structures and structural failures to the escalation or de-escalation of the accident. This can be done by applying the risk-oriented structural design. A well-established methodological framework for such a design is provided by the quantitative risk assessment. A consequent application of a risk-based approach can be one of the risk management tools which will reduce the number of major accidents and thus their negative influence on sustainable development.

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“…The normative principles and application rules are listed in standard EN 1990standard EN (2002 in Europe, and in ASCE/SEI 7-05 (2005) in the USA. Current approaches in the verification of reliability emanate mainly from probabilistic methods (Kala 2007;Karmazínová et al 2009;Kudzys et al 2010) and advanced optimization approaches (e.g., Atkočiūnas et al 1997;Kala 2008;Gottvald 2010;Leng et al 2011;Atkočiūnas, Venskus 2011;Jankovski, Atkočiūnas 2011). Different risk assessments of construction projects are discussed and compared (e.g., Zavadskas et al 2010).…”

Section: Stability and Reliability Of Structuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geometrically Non-Linear Finite Element Reliability Analysis of Steel Plane Frames With Initial Imperfections / Plieninių Rėmų Su Defektais Geometriškai Netiesinė Baigtinių Elementų Patikimumo Analizė

Kala

2012

Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

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Abstract. The random load carrying capacity of steel plane frames with bracing stiffness is studied. The load carrying capacity is evaluated using the geometrically non-linear FEM analysis. The incremental stiffness matrix of a slightly curved element utilized in the non-linear incremental analysis is listed. Initial imperfections are considered as random variables. Statistical analysis and Sobol sensitivity analysis are performed using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. The effect of initial random imperfections on the load carrying capacity is studied, whilst assuming constant slenderness of the columns. The evaluation parameters are the pair of non-random values of elastic bracing stiffness, and system length of the columns. The paper illustrates that the load carrying capacity is very sensitive to initial crookedness of the columns in the event that the non-sway (symmetric) and sway (anti-symmetric) buckling modes coincide. In this case, the design load carrying capacity obtained from statistical analysis according to the EN 1990the EN (2002 standard is relatively very small (of low safety). Results show that the reliability of design of a steel frame according to EUROCODE 3 (1993) is significantly misaligned. The significance of the first and the second buckling forces as indicators of sensitivity of the load carrying capacity to the imperfections is discussed.

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Fuzzy Probability Analysis of the Fatigue Resistance of Steel Structural Members Under Bending/Fuzi Tikimybinė Analizė Vertinant Lenkiamų Plieninių Elementų Atsparį Nuovargiui

Cited by 40 publications

References 8 publications

Assessment of Structures Subjected to Accidental Actions Using Crisp and Uncertain Fragility Functions

Assessment of Structures Subjected to Accidental Actions Using Crisp and Uncertain Fragility Functions

Sustainable Development and Major Industrial Accidents: The Beneficial Role of Risk‐oriented Structural Engineering / Rizika Grindžiamos Konstrukcijų Inžinerijos Įtaka Mažinant Sunkių Pramonių Avarijų Poveikį Darniam Vystymuisi

Geometrically Non-Linear Finite Element Reliability Analysis of Steel Plane Frames With Initial Imperfections / Plieninių Rėmų Su Defektais Geometriškai Netiesinė Baigtinių Elementų Patikimumo Analizė

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