Futures studies in the 21st Century: a reality-based view

Marien, Michael

doi:10.1016/s0016-3287(01)00043-x

Cited by 91 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…-Podrían formar parte de planes más flexibles y adaptables a contextos cambiantes, puesto que al indagar respecto a diferentes futuros posibles, se podrían diseñar diferentes estrategias adaptadas a cada uno de ellos para alcanzar un objetivo o propuesta más deseable y adecuada, potenciando la adaptabilidad del plan. De acuerdo con diversos trabajos en el ámbito de los future studies (Marien, 2002;Borjerson et al 2006;Carsjens, 2009;Fernández, 2011) los futuros representados o imaginados mediante el uso de escenarios suelen corresponderse generalmente con situaciones futuras probables, posibles o deseables, que dan lugar a diversos modos de pensar el futuro y a diferentes tipos de escenarios, algunos con mayor utilidad en el ámbito de la planificación.…”

Section: La Prospectiva Del Plan Ante Un Contexto De Incertidumbre Eunclassified

El distanciamiento entre plan y territorio: diagnóstico conceptual y renovación instrumental

2017

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RESUMENSon diversos los factores instrumentales, metodológicos y globales que operan como causa y efecto de la impotencia de los instrumentos regionales y sub-regionales de Ordenación del Territorio. Las directrices de estos instrumentos son débiles para regular, coordinar u orientar la dinámica territorial acelerada de las últimas décadas donde operan fuerzas motrices ilustrativas del distanciamiento entre plan y territorio, como la demanda especulativa de suelo, los espacios low-cost, la competencia urbanística entre municipios, o la yuxtaposición de escalas e intereses territoriales. De esta forma emerge un territorio que se asume como imprevisto porque la planificación se ve impotente para abordar dimensiones de gran complejidad como son: la multisectorialidad, la multitemporalidad, la multiescalaridad y la multiinstrumentalización, que constituyen dificultades de gran calado. Los factores y las dimensiones apuntados estructuran la base del diagnóstico del distanciamiento entre plan y territorio que se orienta al rearme conceptual de la Ordenación del Territorio mediante tres estrategias transversales y complementarias: el uso proactivo de la información, el balance de los planes y el uso de escenarios. Palabras clave:Ordenación del Territorio, Metodología de la Planificación, Evaluación, Escenarios, Instrumentos. ABSTRACTMethodological, instrumental and global factors seem to be decisive for the growing inability of the Spatial Planning. Furthermore, the Spatial Planning focusing on different scales and sectors is less and less able to regulate, coordinate and orient spatial development. A certain number of factors can explain that: the speculative demand of urban space, the low-cost places, the competences among municipalities or the interaction of different scalar plans. Factors, all of them, related to higher distance between plan and territory. Accordingly, it could be asserted that there is an unexpected territory as a context where the multi-sectorial, multi-scalar, multi-temporal or multi-instrumental dimensions are difficult to achieve. Through a critical revision of the factors and dimensions previously mentioned, this paper presents a conceptual renewal of the Spatial Planning based on three elements: a proactive use of the spatial information, the evaluation of planning and the use of scenarios.

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Section: La Prospectiva Del Plan Ante Un Contexto De Incertidumbre Eunclassified

El distanciamiento entre plan y territorio: diagnóstico conceptual y renovación instrumental

2017

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“…Scenario analysis is employed as it can explore probable, possible and preferable futures (Marien, 2002). There are three categories of scenario typology, namely predictive, explorative and normative measures.…”

Section: Scenario Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated assessment of CO2 reduction technologies in China's cement industry

Wang

Höller

Viebahn

et al. 2014

International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control

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a b s t r a c tThe main objective of this article is to evaluate CO 2 mitigation potential and to calculate costs avoided by the use of different CO 2 mitigation technologies in China's cement sector, namely energy efficiency improvements, use of alternative fuels, clinker substitution and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Three scenarios are designed based on the projection of cement output and technology development over the next 40 years (2010-2050). 2.5, 4.7 and 4.3 Gt tonnes of CO 2 will be saved totally in basic scenario and two low carbon scenarios up to 2050. By comparing these technologies along the scenarios, it can be concluded that CO 2 emissions can mainly be reduced by energy efficiency improvements and use of alternative fuels. Clinker substitution, which reduces the clinker-to-cement ratio as well as energy intensity, results in significant cost advantages. CCS, including post-combustion capture and oxy-fuel combustion capture, could play an important role in the capture of CO 2 in the cement industry, and is expected to be in commercial use by 2030.Crown

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“…The "inspiring example" was another important framing activity [21]; any technology or system that could, of itself, act as a lynch-pin for multiple utility provision was explored in detail. Using the generic technologies and inspiring examples as raw material, the vignettes were imagined into being.…”

Section: The Vignette Building Processmentioning

confidence: 99%