Futures analysis

Hichert, Tanja; Biggs, Reinette; Vos, Alta De

doi:10.4324/9781003021339-13

Cited by 8 publications

(10 citation statements)

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“…Known by various names such as Mānoa Mash-up, Seeds to Scenarios, and Seeds Visioning (Hamann et al, 2020;Pereira et al, 2018;van Velden et al, 2023), the initiative harnesses grassroots initiatives and technological innovations to develop interactive, participatory scenario processes while fostering a rich dialogue around sustainable development and alternative futures. This approach reflects a commitment to transformative foresight as it explores emerging potentialities (Hichert & Schultz, 2024) and engages diverse stakeholders in envisioning and creating desirable futures.…”

Section: The Sog a Initiative: Tr An S Formative Fore S I G Ht Pr Ac ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Examples of specific instances where the four insights have been notably manifested during workshops. Regardless of the challenges of identifying weak signals, conducting scanning involves time and effort and is beyond any one person to perform well (Hichert et al, 2021). Ideally, the process should involve a broad network that, when stakeholders are involved, can enable greater contribution to, and ownership of, subsequent stages of the foresight process, increasing the likelihood of policy relevance to constituents and allies (Hichert et al, 2021).…”

Section: Ta B L Ementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Like many other futures and foresight methods and processes (Hichert & Schultz, 2024), the SoGA method requires experienced, skilled facilitators with some background and knowledge of foresight due to the visioning process being a combination and culmination of Mānoa scenario building, Three Horizons Framework, backcasting, and in some cases experiential futuring in the form of role play and storytelling. The need for skilled facilitation in foresight practice is underscored by the fact that this is not an expert-driven forecast-oriented foresight process, but a transformative "journey" involving diverse stakeholders where, among others, the importance of reflexivity is emphasized.…”

Section: Requirement For Skilled Facilitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, the SoGA initiative incorporates various foresight methods categorised as "transformative mindset" and "desirable worlds," according to a futures method typology by Hichert and Schultz (2024). These methods explore how to actively engage with change by questioning our assumptions, envisioning the future we desire, and how to actively shape it (Ketonen-Oksi & Vigren, 2024).…”

Section: The Sog a Initiative: Tr An S Formative Fore S I G Ht Pr Ac ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Transformative foresight for diverse futures: the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes initiative

Preiser,

Hichert,

Biggs

et al. 2024

Development Policy Review

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MotivationForesight methods are increasingly recognized as essential for decision‐making in complex environments, particularly within development and research settings. As foresight methods continue to gain prominence for decision‐making, their application in these settings grows. Funders and policy‐makers can benefit from the experience of transformative foresight practitioners and researchers who are skilled in designing novel ways to envision alternative and diverse development futures.PurposeThe Seeds of Good Anthropocenes (SoGA) initiative has experimented with transformative foresight since its inception in 2016.We position SoGA within the framework of Minkkinen et al. (2019); we present its transformative capacity through participatory visioning; and we explore how foresight methods can shape strategic development options.Approach and methodsWe draw lessons from how SoGA, used extensively in various contexts around the world, has introduced experimental transformative foresight to deal with diversity and complexity. We describe the transformative foresight processes in detail.FindingsSoGA exemplifies how transformative foresight can support policy and change initiatives by providing participants, planners, and decision‐makers with opportunities to reinforce the collaborative and transformative objectives of their policy and convening practices. Such engagement not only deepens the strategic impact of policies, it also encourages a more inclusive and participatory approach to policy development, aligning with broader goals for sustainable and impactful change.

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Section: The Sog a Initiative: Tr An S Formative Fore S I G Ht Pr Ac ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ta B L Ementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Requirement For Skilled Facilitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Sog a Initiative: Tr An S Formative Fore S I G Ht Pr Ac ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Transformative foresight for diverse futures: the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes initiative

Preiser,

Hichert,

Biggs

et al. 2024

Development Policy Review

Self Cite

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“…The emerging field of macroenergy systems aims to understand the dynamics, benefits, costs, and impacts of large-scale energy systems and transitions and defines simulation, abstraction, and modeling as fundamental to its work ( 9 ). Biggs et al ( 10 ) highlight several modeling approaches in a recent handbook of methods for analyzing social–ecological systems, including dynamical systems modeling, state-and-transition modeling, and agent-based modeling. Bauer et al ( 11 ) summarize efforts to develop “digital twins” for Earth that link modeling and observational capacity with the goal of informing a green transition.…”

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confidence: 99%

Progress in modeling dynamic systems for sustainable development

Selin,

Giang,

Clark

2023

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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This Perspective evaluates recent progress in modeling nature–society systems to inform sustainable development. We argue that recent work has begun to address longstanding and often-cited challenges in bringing modeling to bear on problems of sustainable development. For each of four stages of modeling practice—defining purpose, selecting components, analyzing interactions, and assessing interventions—we highlight examples of dynamical modeling methods and advances in their application that have improved understanding and begun to inform action. Because many of these methods and associated advances have focused on particular sectors and places, their potential to inform key open questions in the field of sustainability science is often underappreciated. We discuss how application of such methods helps researchers interested in harnessing insights into specific sectors and locations to address human well-being, focus on sustainability-relevant timescales, and attend to power differentials among actors. In parallel, application of these modeling methods is helping to advance theory of nature–society systems by enhancing the uptake and utility of frameworks, clarifying key concepts through more rigorous definitions, and informing development of archetypes that can assist hypothesis development and testing. We conclude by suggesting ways to further leverage emerging modeling methods in the context of sustainability science.

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Using the three horizons approach to explore pathways towards positive futures for agricultural landscapes with rich biodiversity

et al. 2023

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In light of the global challenges of the Anthropocene, including biodiversity loss, there are increasing calls for positive, inspirational futures to motivate action and help steer away from current, largely unsustainable trajectories. The three horizons framework is an approach in future studies that engages with normative futures and helps develop pathways towards them. However, this approach has not been applied to explore opportunities for biodiversity conservation with farming communities. We developed a template to apply the three horizons framework in combination with storytelling to explore positive futures for agricultural landscapes with rich biodiversity. We then applied this method over two workshops with a rural community in a farming landscape of south-eastern Australia facing typical contemporary challenges of an ageing population, climate change, biodiversity loss and global market uncertainty. In the workshops, six pathways for change were developed. We unpack these narratives of change to contrast problem framings, future aspirations and mechanisms of change and discuss implications for conservation. We discuss our approach to integrating diverse perspectives and values, creating actionable knowledge and highlight the role of governance and policy to support individual and collective agency. We conclude that the three horizons approach has the potential to create actionable knowledge through locally meaningful narratives of change, and thus influence priorities and empower local action. For lasting on-ground change, leadership and effective cross-scale governance is required.

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Futures analysis

Cited by 8 publications

References 0 publications

Transformative foresight for diverse futures: the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes initiative

Transformative foresight for diverse futures: the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes initiative

Progress in modeling dynamic systems for sustainable development

Using the three horizons approach to explore pathways towards positive futures for agricultural landscapes with rich biodiversity

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