Future threats to agricultural food production posed by environmental degradation, climate change, and animal and plant diseases – a risk analysis in three economic and climate settings

Abstract

Global food security is one of the most pressing issues for humanity, and agricultural production is critical for achieving this. The existing analyses of specific threats to agricultural food production seldom bring out the contrasts associated with different levels of economic development and different climatic zones. We therefore investigated the same biophysical threats in three modelled types of countries with different economic and climatic conditions. The threats analysed were environmental degradation, climate change and diseases and pests of animals and plants. These threats were analysed with a methodology enabling the associated risks to be compared. The timeframe was 2012-2050 and the analysis was based on three underlying assumptions for 2050: the world population will have increased to 9 billion people, there will be a larger middle class in the world and climate change will be causing more extreme weather events, higher temperatures and altered precipitation. It is suggested that the risks, presented by the biophysical threats analysed, differ among the three modelled types of countries and that climate zone, public stewardship and economic strength are major determinants of these differences. These determinants are far from evenly spread among the world's major food producers, which implies that diversification of risk monitoring and international assessment of agricultural production is critical for assuring global food security in 2050.

Growth and nutrition of cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) under water deficit as influenced by microbial inoculation via seed coating

“…The agriculture sector is facing a real challenge against climate change (Vurukonda, Vardharajula, Shrivastava, & Skz, ). With the increase in heat waves, storms, droughts, floods or heavy precipitation, crop productivity and food security are being endangered (Hansen, Sato, & Ruedy, ; Sundström et al., ). Among these climate change threats, drought is expected to dramatically hamper plant growth and development for more than 50% of the arable lands by 2050, decreasing crop productivity worldwide (Kasim et al., ; Li et al., ).…”

Applying a Sustainable Development Lens to Global Biomass Potentials

“…The stability of food supplies is at risk due to climate change, environmental degradation, and disease or pest outbreaks [68]. Climate change entails risks and uncertainties for future food security in all its dimensions, as agriculture is sensitive to climate variability and change.…”

Cattle and Nematodes Under Global Change: Transmission Models as an Ally

“…The vulnerability of cattle to the effects of climate change depends on geographical region and production system [43]. Climate change will affect animals directly, for example by increasing heat stress [3].…”