Future streamflow assessment in the Haihe River basin located in northern China using a regionalized variable infiltration capacity model based on 18 CMIP5 GCMs

Abstract

The impact of future climate change on streamflow is assessed in the Haihe River basin (HRB) by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, using the outputs from 18 general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios have been used, including RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Based on the model parameters calibration in six catchments in the HRB and parameter regionalization, the hydrological simulation for the whole HRB denotes good performance of the VIC model. Taking the period 1961–1990 as a baseline period, the outputs from the GCMs indicate that the HRB will become warmer and wetter in the 21st century (2010–2099). There might be an increasing trend for the streamflow in the HRB under future climate change scenarios. For example, in the 2050s (2040–2069), the streamflow may increase by 12%, 28%, and 24% under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Monthly, the highest and lowest increase in streamflow is in dry and wet seasons, respectively. Spatially, the increasing trend for streamflow in the north HRB is higher than that in the south HRB. The uncertainty from the GCMs and climatic scenarios should be further focused.

Simulation and Prediction of the Impact of Climate Change Scenarios on Runoff of Typical Watersheds in Changbai Mountains, China

“…Research usually selects future climate scenarios and climate models or uses mathematical model calculations and downscaling methods to process the data and then analyzes the evolution of future climate and hydrology [11][12][13], while carrying out prediction and response research on hydrological elements [14,15]. Among them, the uncertain factors of future scenarios and hydrological models are the most difficult points in the research [16]. In recent years, the research on global climate models has made great progress.…”

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Western Route Areas of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project

“…It is a mature and widely used method to predict future streamflow and water availability by using outputs from GCMs to drive regional hydrological models [36,37]. Bao et al [38] predicted the trend of streamflow in Hai River basin in the future by combining the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with climate outputs of CMIP5. The prediction showed that there might be an increasing trend for the streamflow and the increasing trend for streamflow in the north basin is higher than that in the south part.…”