Abstract. Climate change is now a major environmental and developmental issue, and one that will increase the challenge of sustainable water resources management. In order to assess the implications of climate change for water resources in China, we calibrated a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with a resolution of 50×50 km 2 using data from 125 well-gauged catchments. Based on similarities in climate conditions, soil texture and other variables, model parameters were transferred to other areas not covered by the calibrated catchments. Taking runoff in the period as a baseline, we studied the impact of climate change on runoff under three emissions scenarios, A2, B2 and A1B. Model findings indicate that annual runoff over China as a whole will probably increase by approximately 3-10 % by 2050, but with quite uneven spatial and temporal distribution. The prevailing pattern of "north dry and south wet" in China is likely to be exacerbated under global warming.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.