Future sea-level rise due to projected ocean warming beneath the Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf: A coupled model study

Thoma, Malte; Determann, Jürgen; Grosfeld, Klaus; Goeller, Sebastian; Hellmer, Hartmut

doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2015.09.013

Cited by 29 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Our use of a three-dimensional ocean circulation model to compute ice shelf melt rates as input for an ice dynamics model is not unique [Determann et al, 2012;Gladstone et al, 2012;Goldberg et al, 2012aGoldberg et al, , 2012bThoma et al, 2015;Asay-Davis et al, 2015], though most other studies in the literature use a variety of melt rate parameterizations that account for the regional differences in ocean temperature and the dependence of melt rates on ocean circulation in a simplified way. The most frequently used parameterizations assume a monotonically increasing function of the melt rate with depth, see, for example, Joughin et al [2010], Martin et al [2011], Pollard and DeConto [2012], and Favier et al [2014].…”

Section: Comparison With Results From a Simple Melt Rate Parameterizamentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupled ice shelf‐ocean modeling and complex grounding line retreat from a seabed ridge

Rydt

Gudmundsson

2016

JGR Earth Surface

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Recent observations and modeling work have shown a complex mechanical coupling betweenAntarctica's floating ice shelves and the adjacent grounded ice sheet. A prime example is Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, which has a strong negative mass balance caused by a recent increase in ocean-induced melting of its ice shelf. The mass loss coincides with the retreat of the grounding line from a seabed ridge, on which it was at least partly grounded until the 1970s. At present, it is unclear what has caused the onset of this retreat and how feedback mechanisms between the ocean and ice shelf geometry have influenced the ice dynamics. To address these questions, we present the first results from an offline coupling between a state-of-the-art shallow-ice flow model with grounding line resolving capabilities and a three-dimensional ocean general circulation model with a static implementation of the ice shelf. A series of idealized experiments simulate the retreat from a seabed ridge in response to changes in the ocean forcing, and we show that the retreat becomes irreversible after 20 years of warm ocean conditions. A comparison to experiments with a simple depth-dependent melt rate parameterization demonstrates that such parameterizations are unable to capture the details of the retreat process, and they overestimate mass loss by more than 40% over a 50 year timescale.

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Section: Comparison With Results From a Simple Melt Rate Parameterizamentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupled ice shelf‐ocean modeling and complex grounding line retreat from a seabed ridge

Rydt

Gudmundsson

2016

JGR Earth Surface

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“…One of the most sensitive regions of the WAIS to potential ocean warming is the Weddell Sea (WS) sector Wright et al, 2014). Ocean modelling studies show that changes in present ocean circulation could bring warm ocean water into direct contact with the grounding lines at the base of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) (Hellmer et al, 2012;Wright et al, 2014;Martin et al, 2015;Ritz et al, 2015;Thoma et al, 2015), which would act in a manner similar to the ocean-induced basal melting under the Pine Island Glacier ice shelf (Jacobs et al, 2011). Enhanced melting of the FRIS could lead to a decrease in the buttressing support to the upstream grounded ice, causing enhanced flow to the ocean.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Enhanced melting of the FRIS could lead to a decrease in the buttressing support to the upstream grounded ice, causing enhanced flow to the ocean. A recent modelling study, using a general ocean circulation model coupled with a 3-D thermodynamic ice-sheet model, simulated the inflow of warm ocean water into the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf cavity on a 1000-year timescale (Thoma et al, 2015). A second modelling study, this time using an ice-sheet model only, indicated that the Institute and Möller ice streams are highly sensitive to melting at the grounding lines, with grounding-line retreat up to 180 km possible across the Institute and Möller ice streams .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new bed elevation model for the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Jeofry

Ross

Corr

et al. 2018

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

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We present a new digital elevation model (DEM) of the bed, with a 1 km gridding, of the Weddell Sea (WS) sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The DEM has a total area of ∼ 125 000 km 2 covering the Institute, Möller and Foundation ice streams, as well as the Bungenstock ice rise. In comparison with the Bedmap2 product, our DEM includes new aerogeophysical datasets acquired by the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) through the NASA Operation IceBridge (OIB) program in 2012, 2014 and 2016. We also improve bed elevation information from the single largest existing dataset in the region, collected by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Polarimetric radar Airborne Science Instrument (PASIN) in 2010-2011, from the relatively crude measurements determined in the field for quality control purposes used in Bedmap2. While the gross form of the new DEM is similar to Bedmap2, there are some notable differences. For example, the position and size of a deep subglacial trough (∼ 2 km below sea level) between the ice-sheet interior and the grounding line of the Foundation Ice Stream have been redefined. From the revised DEM, we are able to better derive the expected routing of basal water and, by comparison with that calculated using Bedmap2, we are able to assess regions where hydraulic flow is sensitive to change. Given the potential vulnerability of this sector to ocean-induced melting at the grounding line, especially in light of the improved definition of the Foundation Ice Stream trough, our revised DEM will be of value to ice-sheet modelling in efforts to quantify future glaciological changes in the region and, from this, the potential impact on global sea level. The new 1 km bed elevation product of the WS sector can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1035488.Published by Copernicus Publications. 712 H. Jeofry et al.: A new bed elevation model for the Weddell Sea sector

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“…20, Timmermann and Hellmer 2013). The associated thickness decrease has severe consequences for the buttressing potential of the ice shelf and the dynamics of the ice streams mainly draining East Antarctica (Thoma et al 2015). The increase in glacial meltwater additionally freshens the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf, contributing to a further decline of the shelf water density.…”

Section: Freshwater Input Through Ice Shelf Basal Meltingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorology and oceanography of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean—a review of German achievements from the last decade

et al. 2016

Self Cite

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German universities and the AWI as well as other institutes involved in polar research. Here, we review the main findings in meteorology and oceanography of the last decade, funded by the priority program. The paper presents field observations and modelling efforts, extending from the stratosphere to the deep ocean. The research spans a large range of temporal and spatial scales, including the interaction of both climate components. In particular, radiative processes, the interaction of the changing ozone layer with large-scale atmospheric circulations, and changes in the sea ice cover are discussed. Climate and weather forecast models provide an insight into the water cycle and the climate change signals associated with synoptic cyclones. Investigations of the atmospheric boundary layer focus on the interaction between atmosphere, sea ice and ocean in the vicinity of polynyas and leads. The chapters dedicated to polar oceanography review the interaction between the ocean and ice shelves with regard to the freshwater input and discuss the changes in water mass characteristics, ventilation and formation rates, crucial for the deepest limb of the global, climate-relevant meridional overturning circulation. They also highlight the associated storage of anthropogenic carbon as well as the cycling of carbon, nutrients and trace metals in the ocean with special emphasis on the Weddell Sea.

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Future sea-level rise due to projected ocean warming beneath the Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf: A coupled model study

Cited by 29 publications

References 49 publications

Coupled ice shelf‐ocean modeling and complex grounding line retreat from a seabed ridge

Coupled ice shelf‐ocean modeling and complex grounding line retreat from a seabed ridge

A new bed elevation model for the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Meteorology and oceanography of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean—a review of German achievements from the last decade

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