Future sea-level changes due to West Antarctic ice sheet fluctuations

Clark, J. A.; Lingle, Craig S.

doi:10.1038/269206a0

Cited by 110 publications

(109 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…In other words, the spatial pattern of RSL change can be used to 'fingerprint' melt sources, hence the use of the term 'sea-level fingerprinting' for this application. This technique has been applied to rapid melting events in the geological record (103,106), 20 th century sea-level change (114,115) and regional projections of future change (13,116).…”

Section: Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (Gia)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods

Dutton

Carlson

Long

et al. 2015

Science

649

588

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(2015) 'Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods. ', Science., 349 (6244). aaa4019.Further information on publisher's website: Use policyThe full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details.

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Section: Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (Gia)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods

Dutton

Carlson

Long

et al. 2015

Science

649

588

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The results are quantitatively consistent with previous estimates on a millennial time scale (3). Mass loss from land ice results in a spatially variable sea-level change due to the resulting isostatic deformation and changes in gravity (63,64). Using a model that simulates these processes (65-67), we computed global patterns of sea-level change associated with mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets based on the volume contributions in Table 1 (Fig.…”

Section: Sea-level Commitment For the Next 2000 Yearsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

Levermann

Clark

Marzeion

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

262

224

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Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sealevel rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m°C −1 and 1.2 m°C −1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m°C −1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.climate change | climate impacts | sea-level change S ea-level projections show a robust, albeit highly uncertain, increase by the end of this century (1, 2), and there is strong evidence that sea level will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed (3-6). At the same time, inertia in the climate and global carbon system causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased (6), raising the question of how much sea-level rise we are committed to on a multimillennial time scale for different levels of global mean temperature increase. During the 20th century, sea level rose by approximately 0.2 m (7, 8), and it is estimated to rise by significantly less than 2 m by 2100, even for the strongest scenarios considered (9). At the same time, past climate records suggest a sea-level sensitivity of as much as several meters per degree of warming during previous intervals of Earth history when global temperatures were similar to or warmer than present (10, 11). Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers (7), the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea level indicates important contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Because of the uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, additional strategies are req...

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“…in previously ice-covered regions. Rebound ''correction'' includes a significant redistribution of water mass associated with the gravitational potential of the rebound earth mass as well as the amplification by ''selfgravitation'' of the modified water mass (11,12).…”

Section: Sea Level During the Late Holocene Periodmentioning

confidence: 99%