Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods

Dutton, Andrea; Carlson, Anders E.; Long, Antony J.; Milne, Glenn A.; Clark, Peter U.; DeConto, Robert M.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Raymo, Maureen E

doi:10.1126/science.aaa4019

Cited by 600 publications

(607 citation statements)

References 162 publications

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“…5b). The average LIG GMSL contribution was 1.46 m (Table 3), which lies within the most recent estimated range of between 0.6 and 3.5 m (Dutton et al, 2015). At the PD, the SW margin has retreated too far inland ( Fig.…”

Section: Results Of Simulationssupporting

confidence: 77%

“…A review publication by Dutton et al (2015) stated that the exact magnitude and contribution of the various global ice sheets to global mean sea level (GMSL) during the Last Interglacial (LIG; 130-115 ka BP) is still largely unresolved. From the analysis of far-field sea level records, it is estimated to have reached a peak between 6 and 9 m above PD levels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the contribution from the GrIS is poorly constrained and its reconstructed spatial extent highly variable (Vasskog et al, 2015). Estimates from ice-sheet modellingbased studies of the contribution to the LIG highstand range between 0.6 and 3.5 m (Cuffey and Marshall, 2000;Dutton et al, 2015;Helsen et al, 2013;Robinson et al, 2011;Stone et al, 2013). Also, Clark and Tarasov (2014) highlight that closing the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) GMSL budget is becoming increasingly problematic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet over two glacial–interglacial cycles: investigating a sub-ice- shelf melt parameterization and relative sea level forcing in an ice-sheet–ice-shelf model

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Observational evidence, including offshore moraines and sediment cores, confirm that at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) expanded to a significantly larger spatial extent than seen at present, grounding into Baffin Bay and out onto the continental shelf break. Given this larger spatial extent and its close proximity to the neighbouring Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) and Innuitian Ice Sheet (IIS), it is likely these ice sheets will have had a strong non-local influence on the spatial and temporal behaviour of the GrIS. Most previous paleo ice-sheet modelling simulations recreated an ice sheet that either did not extend out onto the continental shelf or utilized a simplified marine ice parameterization which did not fully include the effect of ice shelves or neglected the sensitivity of the GrIS to this non-local bedrock signal from the surrounding ice sheets.In this paper, we investigated the evolution of the GrIS over the two most recent glacial-interglacial cycles (240 ka BP to the present day) using the ice-sheet-ice-shelf model IMAU-ICE. We investigated the solid earth influence of the LIS and IIS via an offline relative sea level (RSL) forcing generated by a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model. The RSL forcing governed the spatial and temporal pattern of sub-ice-shelf melting via changes in the water depth below the ice shelves.In the ensemble of simulations, at the glacial maximums, the GrIS coalesced with the IIS to the north and expanded to the continental shelf break to the southwest but remained too restricted to the northeast. In terms of the global mean sea level contribution, at the Last Interglacial (LIG) and LGM the ice sheet added 1.46 and −2.59 m, respectively. This LGM contribution by the GrIS is considerably higher (∼ 1.26 m) than most previous studies whereas the contribution to the LIG highstand is lower (∼ 0.7 m). The spatial and temporal behaviour of the northern margin was highly variable in all simulations, controlled by the sub-ice-shelf melting which was dictated by the RSL forcing and the glacial history of the IIS and LIS. In contrast, the southwestern part of the ice sheet was insensitive to these forcings, with a uniform response in all simulations controlled by the surface air temperature, derived from ice cores.

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Section: Results Of Simulationssupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet over two glacial–interglacial cycles: investigating a sub-ice- shelf melt parameterization and relative sea level forcing in an ice-sheet–ice-shelf model

et al. 2018

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“…6i; Galili et al, 2007;Hearty et al, 2007;Kopp et al, 2009Kopp et al, , 2013Rohling et al, 2014;Dutton et al, 2015;Spratt and Lisiecki, 2015;Sivan et al, 2016). Based on the reconstructed topography of the Late Pleistocene calcareous sandstone surface (Fig.…”

Section: Evolution Of the Coastal Plain Of Israel During The Late Quamentioning

confidence: 99%

New perspectives on coastal landscape reconstruction during the Late Quaternary: A test case from central Israel

Shtienberg

Dix

Roskin

et al. 2017

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology

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The stratigraphic architecture of coastal plains is determined by the interactions between local (e.g. fluvial processes and topography), regional (e.g. climate) and global (e.g. sea level) forcing factors, primarily during the Late Quaternary Period. Detailed stratigraphic and sedimentological analyses of boreholes, cored between coastal ridges in the lowlands, coupled with optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, and integrated with existing onshore and offshore databases, has enabled a 4-D reconstruction of the evolution of the coast of Israel during the last glacial-interglacial cycle. This model revealed that Nilotic-sourced littoral sand, intermittently transported inland by wind, has either been lithified into aeolianite or pedogenized into orange-brown palaeosol from about 100 ka to 8 ka. Dark silty clay wetlands were deposited between the aeolian coastal ridges adjacent to streams which cut the Israeli coastal plain and flow westward, from the Last Glacial Maximum until the onset of the Holocene. These units are topped by beach and aeolian quartz sand dated to 6.6-0.1 ka. Diachronous thicknesses and lithological dissimilarities were identified between the sections studied and previous reports on adjacent coastal aeolianite ridges. Streams were found to be a dominant control on the stratigraphical composition and related facies architecture due to fluvial-induced erosion. Consequently, the relief variations between the lowland and cliff controlled aeolian pedogenesis as well as alluvial processes from about 80 to 5 ka. Climate, mainly influenced by precipitation and dust input, induced pedogenic processes; while sea level lowstand during the Last Glacial Maximum is shown to have hindered sediment deposition in the shallow offshore, which in turn affected aeolian transport, reducing sediment accumulation on the palaeo-coastal plain. The palaeoenvironmental model presented in the current study serves as an example for understanding the evolution of similar low-latitude siliciclastic-rich low-gradient shelf-coastal areas during the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Furthermore, it demonstrates the influence of local to global forcing factors on these environments.

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“…Such contrasting ice-mass distributions between successive glacial maxima highlight significant complexity in the processes that drive glaciation into different 'modes' (e.g., Liakka et al, 2016). The difference also has repercussions for glacioisostatic adjustment (GIA) studies of sea-level history during the LIG, which was about 1 C warmer than the Holocene (Clark and Huybers, 2009;Turney and Jones, 2010;McKay et al, 2011;Hoffman et al, 2017;Hansen et al, 2017), with sea levels that reached 4e10 m higher than today Dutton and Lambeck, 2012;Grant et al, 2012;Stocker et al, 2013;Dutton et al, 2015aDutton et al, , 2015b. Dendy et al (2017) investigated the sensitivity of the predictions of the last interglacial highstand to uncertainties in the configuration of the major northern hemisphere ice sheets during MIS 6.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Differences between the last two glacial maxima and implications for ice-sheet, δ18O, and sea-level reconstructions

Rohling

Hibbert

Williams

et al. 2017

Quaternary Science Reviews

115

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Arctic ice shelf Last Interglacial Glacioisostatic adjustment a b s t r a c t Studies of past glacial cycles yield critical information about climate and sea-level (ice-volume) variability, including the sensitivity of climate to radiative change, and impacts of crustal rebound on sealevel reconstructions for past interglacials. Here we identify significant differences between the last and penultimate glacial maxima (LGM and PGM) in terms of global volume and distribution of land ice, despite similar temperatures and radiative forcing. Our analysis challenges conventional views of relationships between global ice volume, sea level, seawater oxygen isotope values, and deep-sea temperature, and supports the potential presence of large floating Arctic ice shelves during the PGM. The existence of different glacial 'modes' calls for focussed research on the complex processes behind ice-age development. We present a glacioisostatic assessment to demonstrate how a different PGM ice-sheet configuration might affect sea-level estimates for the last interglacial. Results suggest that this may alter existing last interglacial sea-level estimates, which often use an LGM-like ice configuration, by several metres (likely upward).

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Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods

Cited by 600 publications

References 162 publications

Simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet over two glacial–interglacial cycles: investigating a sub-ice- shelf melt parameterization and relative sea level forcing in an ice-sheet–ice-shelf model

Simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet over two glacial–interglacial cycles: investigating a sub-ice- shelf melt parameterization and relative sea level forcing in an ice-sheet–ice-shelf model

New perspectives on coastal landscape reconstruction during the Late Quaternary: A test case from central Israel

Differences between the last two glacial maxima and implications for ice-sheet, δ18O, and sea-level reconstructions

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