Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Payne, Antony J.; Nowicki, Sophie; Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako; Agosta, Cécile; Alexander, Patrick; Albrecht, Torsten; Asay‐Davis, Xylar; Aschwanden, Andy; Barthel, Alice; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Calov, Reinhard; Chambers, Christopher; Choi, Youngmin; Cullather, Richard I.; Cuzzone, Joshua; Dumas, Christophe; Edwards, Tamsin; Felikson, Denis; Fettweis, Xavier; Galton-Fenzi, B; Goelzer, Heiko; Gladstone, Rupert; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Greve, Ralf; Hattermann, Tore; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Humbert, Angelika; Huybrechts, Philippe; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Kleiner, Thomas; Munneke, Peter Kuipers; Larour, Eric; clec’h, Sébastien Le; Lee, Victoria; Leguy, Gunter; Lipscomb, William H.; Little, Christopher M.; Lowry, Daniel P.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Nias, Isabel; Pattyn, Frank; Pelle, Tyler; Price, Stephen; Quiquet, Aurélien; Reese, Ronja; Rückamp, Martin; Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne; Seroussi, H. L.; Shepherd, Andrew; Simon, Erika; Slater, Donald; Smith, Robin; Straneo, Fiammetta; Sun, Sainan; Tarasov, Lev; Trusel, Luke D.; Breedam, Jonas Van; Wal, R. S. W. van de; Broeke, Michiel van den; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Zhao, Chen; Zhang, Tong; Zwinger, Thomas

doi:10.1029/2020gl091741

Cited by 49 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The future climate simulations carried out in this study for the GrIS over the 3rd millennium confirm and continue the trends that were reported by ISMIP6-Greenland for the 21st century (Goelzer and others, 2020; Greve and others, 2020b; Payne and others, 2021). The response of the ice sheet is mainly governed by a negative SMB due to increased surface melting near the ice margin.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

“…The atmospheric forcing consists of a 1960–1989 reference climatology, plus space-time-dependent anomalies for SMB and ST. These were derived from a systematic sampling of CMIP5 GCMs that reflects their spread in future projections (Barthel and others, 2020), while CMIP6 GCMs were added on the basis of availability only (Payne and others, 2021). All GCM forcings were downscaled to the GrIS surface with the regional climate model MAR v3.9.6 (Fettweis and others, 2017; Delhasse and others, 2020).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate

Greve

Chambers

2022

J. Glaciol.

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We conduct extended versions of the ISMIP6 future climate experiments for the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 with the model SICOPOLIS. Beyond 2100, the climate forcing is kept fixed at late-21st-century conditions. For the unabated warming pathway RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, the ice sheet suffers a severe mass loss, which amounts to ~ 1.8 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the 12-experiment mean, and ~ 3.5 m SLE (~ 50% of the entire mass) for the most sensitive experiment. For the reduced emissions pathway RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the mass loss is limited to a two-experiment mean of ~ 0.28 m SLE. Climate-change mitigation during the next decades will therefore be an efficient means for limiting the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea-level rise in the long term.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate

Greve

Chambers

2022

J. Glaciol.

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“…The quadratic extrapolation is supported by Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison 6 (ISMIP6) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) projections of Antarctica's contribution to sea-level rise until the year 2100, which suggest a time evolution well-approximated by a second-order polynomial, across models and model set ups, as well as using various climate forcing (Payne et al, 2021). Note, however, that despite similar temporal characteristics of the projections, the complex interplay of physical processes in response to the climate forcing governs the actual path of each simulation.…”

Section: Extrapolation Of Sea-level Contributionmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…First, mass balance and dynamic acceleration are assumed to prevail unchanged until the end of this century, implying no changes in the external forcing. Next, we neglect possible long-term changes in SMB, which have been shown to have an important impact on the sea-level contribution Payne et al (2021). In addition, we extrapolate present-day mass balance components based on a relatively short time period of 19 years.…”

Section: Extrapolation Of Sea-level Contributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Projections have shown that long-term changes in snow accumulation related to a higher moisture content in the warming atmosphere may compensate dynamic losses, potentially leading to net mass gain of the ice sheet and an associated fall in sea level (Seroussi et al, 2020). However, the spread in projected SMB is large due to differences in forcing, models and downscaling (Payne et al, 2021), and further research is needed to quantify the relative importance of SMB, ice-dynamic changes and their interaction in projections of sea-level rise. Our results show that it is possible to separate superimposed substantial multi-year fluctuations in the SMB component from ice-dynamic changes in GRACE/GRACE-FO data.…”

Section: Extrapolated Sea-level Contribution From Antarcticamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Acceleration of Dynamic Ice Loss in Antarctica From Satellite Gravimetry

et al. 2021

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The dynamic stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future global sea-level rise. Essential for improving projections of the ice sheet evolution is the understanding of the ongoing trends and accelerations of mass loss in the context of ice dynamics. Here, we examine accelerations of mass change of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2002 to 2020 using data from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment; 2002–2017) and its follow-on GRACE-FO (2018-present) satellite missions. By subtracting estimates of net snow accumulation provided by re-analysis data and regional climate models from GRACE/GRACE-FO mass changes, we isolate variations in ice-dynamic discharge and compare them to direct measurements based on the remote sensing of the surface-ice velocity (2002–2017). We show that variations in the GRACE/GRACE-FO time series are modulated by variations in regional snow accumulation caused by large-scale atmospheric circulation. We show for the first time that, after removal of these surface effects, accelerations of ice-dynamic discharge from GRACE/GRACE-FO agree well with those independently derived from surface-ice velocities. For 2002–2020, we recover a discharge acceleration of -5.3 ± 2.2 Gt yr−2 for the entire ice sheet; these increasing losses originate mainly in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea Embayment regions (68%), with additional significant contributions from Dronning Maud Land (18%) and the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf region (13%). Under the assumption that the recovered rates and accelerations of mass loss persisted independent of any external forcing, Antarctica would contribute 7.6 ± 2.9 cm to global mean sea-level rise by the year 2100, more than two times the amount of 2.9 ± 0.6 cm obtained by linear extrapolation of current GRACE/GRACE-FO mass loss trends.

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The Transient Sea Level response to external forcing in CMIP6 models

Grinsted

Bamber

Bingham

et al. 2022

Preprint

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 The rate of ice sheet mass loss and ocean expansion has a near linear relationship to global mean surface warming in both models and data.  The modeled transient sensitivity of the sea level budget to warming is compatible with historical behavior except for Antarctic mass loss.  Models of Antarctic mass loss may be biased as data shows increasing losses with warming in contrast to models.

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Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Cited by 49 publications

References 27 publications

Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate

Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate

Acceleration of Dynamic Ice Loss in Antarctica From Satellite Gravimetry

The Transient Sea Level response to external forcing in CMIP6 models

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