Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate

Greve, Ralf; Chambers, Christopher

doi:10.1017/jog.2022.9

Cited by 8 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 36 publications

(51 reference statements)

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“…A possible improvement, also beneficial for the resolution of the forcing fields, is to reprocess the GCM output by a regional climate model and compute vertical gradients of ST and SMB, so that at least a linearized feedback can be implemented (Franco and others, 2012). Such a method was employed for the ISMIP6-Greenland simulations and derived work (Goelzer and others, 2020;Nowicki and others, 2020;Greve and Chambers, 2022). Short of very demanding and computationally expensive fully coupled climate-ice-sheet simulations, a further possibility is to involve snapshots of climate-model results combined with more refined parameterizations for the climatic forcing, similar to the approach by Abe-Ouchi and others (2013) for the paleoglaciation of the Northern Hemisphere.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method

Greve¹,

Chambers²,

Obase³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) was devised to assess the likely sea-level-rise contribution from the Earth's ice sheets. Here, we construct an ensemble of climate forcings for Antarctica until the year 2300 based on original ISMIP6 forcings until 2100, combined with climate indices from simulations with the MIROC4m climate model until 2300. We then use these forcings to run simulations for the Antarctic ice sheet with the SICOPOLIS model. For the unabated warming pathway RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, the ice sheet suffers a severe mass loss, amounting to ~1.5 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the fourteen-experiment mean, and ~3.3 m SLE for the most sensitive experiment. Most of this loss originates from West Antarctica. For the reduced emissions pathway RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the loss is limited to a three-experiment mean of ~0.16 m SLE. The means are approximately two times larger than what was found in a previous study (Chambers and others, 2022, doi: 10.1017/jog.2021.124) that assumed a sustained late-21st-century climate beyond 2100, demonstrating the importance of continuously projected Antarctic climate change in the 22nd and 23th centuries.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[SSP: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway] are much greater than the 100-year response in the long term even if no further climate trend is applied beyond 2100. A similar study for the GrIS was conducted by Greve and Chambers (2022).…”

mentioning

confidence: 98%

Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method

Greve¹,

Chambers²,

Obase³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…An important aspect of the occurrence of Pseudorchis in Greenland is that currently most of the island is covered by ice (GrIS). Studies indicate that by 2100, the thickness of the GrIS will decrease significantly, but the area occupied will not differ much (Muntjewerf et al, 2020;Greve and Chambers 2022;Yang et al, 2022). This means that many areas predicted suitable by the models will still be inaccessible to Pseudorchis, and its occurrence will be limited to the island's coastal zone.…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…This means that many areas predicted suitable by the models will still be inaccessible to Pseudorchis, and its occurrence will be limited to the island's coastal zone. Of course, this has implications for the future, when the area of the GrIS is expected to decrease significantly and thus there will be new areas for colonization by plants (Chambers et al, 2022;Greve and Chambers 2022;Yang et al, 2022).…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Will Greenland be the last refuge for the continental European small-white orchid?Niche modeling of future distribution of Pseudorchis albida

Kolanowska

Nowak

Rewicz

2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Climate change affects populations of plants, animals, and fungi not only by direct modifications of their climatic niches but also by altering their ecological interactions. In this study, the future distribution of suitable habitats for the small-white orchid (Pseudorchis albida) was predicted using ecological niche modeling. In addition, the effect of global warming on the spatial distribution and availability of the pollen vectors of this species was evaluated. Due to the inconsistency in the taxonomic concepts of Pseudorchis albida, the differences in the climatic preferences of three proposed subspecies were investigated. Due to the overlap of both morphological and ecological characters of ssp. albida and ssp. tricuspis, they are considered to be synonyms, and the final analyses were carried out using ssp. albida s.l. and ssp. straminea. All of the models predict that with global warming, the number of suitable niches for these orchids will increase. This significant increase in preferred habitats is expected to occur in Greenland, but habitat loss in continental Europe will be severe. Within continental Europe, Pseudorchis albida ssp. albida will lose 44%–98% of its suitable niches and P. albida ssp. straminea will lose 46%–91% of its currently available habitats. An opposite effect of global warming was predicted for pollinators of P. albida s.l., and almost all insects studied will be subject to habitat loss. Still, within the predicted potential geographical ranges of the orchid studied, some pollen vectors are expected to occur, and these can support the long-term survival of the small-white orchid.

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“…The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) today is losing mass and is one of the largest contributors to global sea level rise in response to anthropogenic warming (Dowdeswell, 2006; Goelzer et al, 2020;Greve and Chambers, 2022). The amount of sea level rise contributed by the GrIS is highly dependent on future emission scenarios (Goelzer et al, 2020;Greve and Chambers, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Duration and Ice Thickness of a Late Holocene Outlet Glacier Advance near Narsarsuaq, South Greenland

Puleo

Axford

2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) outlet glaciers are currently losing mass leading to sea level rise. Reconstructions of past outlet glaciers through the Holocene help us better understand how they respond to climate change. Kiattuut Sermiat, a south Greenland outlet glacier near Narsarsuaq, is known to have experienced an anomalously small Little Ice Age advance compared with a larger Holocene advance that culminated at ~1600 cal yr BP. We report sedimentary records from two lakes at slightly different elevations in an upland valley adjacent to Kiattuut Sermiat, which reveal when the outlet glacier was significantly larger than its Little Ice Age size and constrain the associated outlet glacier surface elevation. We use bulk sediment geochemistry, magnetic susceptibility, color, texture, and the presence of aquatic plant macrofossils to distinguish between till, glaciolacustrine sediments, and organic lake sediments. Our 14C results above basal till recording regional deglaciation skew slightly old due to a hard water effect but are generally consistent with regional deglaciation occurring ~11,000 cal yr BP. Neoglacial advance of Kiattuut Sermiat is recorded by deposition of glaciolacustrine sediments in the lower-elevation lake, which was subsumed by an ice-dammed lake that formed along the glacier’s margin just after ~3900 cal yr BP. This timing is consistent with several other glacial records in Greenland showing Neoglacial cooling driving advance between ~4500–3000 cal yr BP. Given that glaciolacustrine sediments were deposited only in the lower-elevation lake, combined with glacial geomorphological evidence in the valley containing these lakes, we estimate the former ice margin’s elevation to have been ~670 m, compared with ~420 m today. The ice-dammed lake persisted until glacier retreat at ~1600 cal yr BP. That retreat timing contrasts with overall evidence for cooling and glacier advance in the region at that time, so we infer that retreat may have resulted from reduced precipitation amounts and/or local glaciological complexity. High sensitivity to precipitation changes could also explain the limited Little Ice Age advance of Kiattuut Sermiat compared to other Greenland glaciers.

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Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate

Cited by 8 publications

References 36 publications

Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method

Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method

Will Greenland be the last refuge for the continental European small-white orchid?Niche modeling of future distribution of Pseudorchis albida

Duration and Ice Thickness of a Late Holocene Outlet Glacier Advance near Narsarsuaq, South Greenland

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