Future scenarios of land-use-cover effects on pollination supply and demand in São Paulo State, Brazil

Abstract

Rapid land-use/land cover changes (LULCC) have led to habitat loss and fragmentation in the natural forest areas, which are mainly due to the intense and rapid expansion of urban areas and intense agricultural management. These processes are strongly threatening biodiversity maintenance and the ecosystem services provided by them. Among the ecosystem services under threat, pollination has been widely studied since this service is essential to promote food production and, therefore, human well-being. In a scenario of increasing LULCC it is crucial to understand the interplay between these changes, pollination demand by insect-dependent crops and pollinator availability to ensure these ecosystem services meet the increased demand for food production. In this study, we developed a conceptual model to disentangle the relationships between human-nature, especially LULCC, and its consequences, to the delivery of pollination service. We also presented a case study in the Brazilian São Paulo state, where we modeled the effects of predicted LULCC associated to agriculture expansion between the years 2012 and 2030 on pollinator demand by crops and pollinator supply, for fourteen economically important crops. Additionally, we systematized an expert-based Ecosystem Service matrix to estimate the influences of LULCC on the provision of pollination. Our results showed that by 2030, the demand for pollination will increase by 40% on average, while pollinator supply, estimated using suitability values for the different land-use/cover classes, will show, on average, a 3% decrease. Our results highlight the importance of considering the dialogue among stakeholders, governments, institutions, and scientists to find alternatives and strategies to promote pollinator-friendly practices and safeguard the provision of pollination services in a future under LULCC.

The contribution of the BIOTA/FAPESP Program to the knowledge on pollination and plant reproduction

“…On the other hand, the supply of pollination depends on the amount of habitat and vegetation cover in forest remnants, so the provision of this service can be compromised by changes in land use and land cover over time. Based on modeling of predicted land use and land cover changes associated with agriculture expansion (between the years 2012 and 2030) in São Paulo state, the demand for pollination will increase by 40% by 2030, while pollinator supply will decrease by 3% (Barbosa et al 2020).…”

Increasing capacity to produce scenarios and models for biodiversity and ecosystem services

“…For instance, IPBES has identified (1) changes in land and sea use; (2) direct exploitation of organisms; (3) climate change; (4) pollution and (5) invasive alien species (Díaz et al, 2020) as the five most important direct drivers of change. These were commonly included in the case studies, such as for example in Siqueira-Gay et al (2020), where the socio-ecological system of forest cover change in the Amazon was investigated; or in Barbosa et al (2020) when evaluating pollination service changes in Brazil; or even in Estigarribia et al ( 2020) when analysing changes in biodiversity in the grasslands of South America. Additionally, indirect drivers commonly identified independently of the geographic location of the case study were population pressure, economic growth and international demand, governance, and policy changes, such as for example in the case of Dib et al (2020) for the Cantareira system in Brazil; or in Sarkar et al (2020) for the wetlands of Brazil and India; or in Lembi et al (2020) when analysing urban expansion in the Atlantic Forest; and in Bondé et al (2020) for the shea trees in West Africa.…”

“…For instance, Sanchez-Quinto et al (2020) used GLOBIO3 (Alkemade et al 2009 to project changes in the mean species abundance of mangroves and proposed a modification to suit the analysis for coral reefs as well. Barbosa et al (2020) used the OTIMIZAGRO model (Soares-Filho et al, 2013 in combination with an ecosystem services matrix approach (Burkhard et al, 2009) to estimate changes in pollination services. Dib et al (2020) used InVEST 3.7.0 (Hamel et al 2015) to determine changes in the Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR).…”

A importância da polinização biótica em cultivos agrícolas no Brasil

“…Mesmo assim, o Brasil alcança a marca mundial do 4º maior produtor agrícola, 3º exportador agrícola e 4º produtor de frutas, o que evidencia a necessidade e importância dos polinizadores em safras brasileiras (Porto et al, 2020). Corroborando com essa informação, Barbosa et al (2020) estimaram, a partir de estudos de modelagem para o estado de São Paulo, que até 2030, a demanda pela polinização biótica aumentará 40%, trazendo à tona a necessidade de ajustamentos no processo de polinização artificial para o natural, tendo como consequência a substituição de cultivos não dependentes de polinizadores por cultivos dependentes (Barbosa et al, 2020). Considerando o exposto, o objetivo deste estudo consiste em determinar a importância do serviço de polinização biótica para espécies de cultivos agrícolas no Brasil.…”