Future projection of cancer patients with cardiovascular disease in Japan by the year 2039: a pilot study

Abstract

Background The number of cancer patients in Japan is estimated to rise to 3.5 million by 2025. The disease burden may be further complicated by comorbidities caused by cardiovascular disease (CVD). Predicting the number of cancer patients with CVD can help anticipate future resource needs. Methods We used statistics derived from the Niigata Cancer Center CVD Study (2015) as well as population estimates from the National Cancer Center’s Cancer Registry and Statistics survey of 2017 for convenience. We simply multiplied the projected number of cancer patients through the year 2039 by the CVD prevalence in 2015, with patients classified by sex, age, and cancer type to estimate the number of cancer patients with CVD. Results The total number of Japanese cancer patients with CVD was 253,000 in 2015 and is predicted to increase rapidly by 30,000 in 2020 and peak at 313,000 in 2030–2034. Men will dominate the CVD population at 2.5-fold the number of women. The growth rate of the population with both cancer and CVD will be greater than that of the cancer-only population (1.23 vs 1.18, P < 0.001), and will comprise notably high proportions of patients with prostatic, breast, and uterine cancers (1.80, 1.57, and 1.66, P < 0.001, respectively). Conclusion Future cancer patients will be older and more likely to have CVD. Although men will continue to dominate this population, the increase in the number of women will be pronounced. Cancer care providers should be trained to recognize CVD and provide any necessary interventions concurrently with cancer therapy. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10147-019-01426-w) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Impending Epidemic of Cardiovascular Diseases in Patients With Cancer in Japan

“…6,68 According to our registry, in males with cancer, although the prevalence of LVD was significantly high with hematological cancers (leukemia, lymphoma, and myeloma) and urinary bladder tumors (6-14%), the number of cancer patients with LVD was larger for cancers of the colon, stomach, and prostate, which had an average prevalence of 2-4% and a larger number of patients. 69 In females with cancer, the number of patients with LVD was larger for cancers of the breast, colon, and uterus, which had an average prevalence of 2-4%.…”

“…We used the statistics derived from the Niigata Cancer Center CVD Study (2015), as well as the population estimates from the National Cancer Center's Cancer Registry and Statistics survey of 2017 for future projections of onco-cardiology (Figure 4). 11,16,69 The total number of Japanese cancer patients with CVD was 253,000 in 2015 and is predicted to rapidly increase by 30,000 by 2020 and demonstrate a peak of 313,000 during 2030-2034. 69 The CVD population will predominately include men, with a 2.5-fold higher number than women.…”

“…11,16,69 The total number of Japanese cancer patients with CVD was 253,000 in 2015 and is predicted to rapidly increase by 30,000 by 2020 and demonstrate a peak of 313,000 during 2030-2034. 69 The CVD population will predominately include men, with a 2.5-fold higher number than women. The growth rate of the population with both cancer and CVD will be greater than that of the cancer-only population (1.23 vs. 1.18, P<0.001) and will notably comprise high proportions of patients with prostatic, breast, and uterine cancers (1.80, 1.57, and 1.66, P<0.001, respectively).…”

Nanomedicine in Oncocardiology: Contribution and Perspectives of Preclinical Studies

“…Most cancer patients are more than 60 years old, with aging being a critical predisposition factor for cancer and CVD ( 5 ). Despite these predictions, many preclinical cancer studies use mice whose age correlates with that of adolescents ( Figure 2A ), a period of life when cancer and cardiovascular events are fortunately rare.…”

“…Cancer, once fatal, is now emerging as a chronic disease, often at the cost of cardiovascular complications. Moreover, cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are more common and more severe in cancer patients (1)(2)(3)(4)(5). In this context, the development of novel treatments with antineoplastic agents still raises concerns about undesirable effects at the acute phase of the treatment and potentially during long-term therapy (6).…”