Future extreme rainfall change projections in the north of Iran

Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad Rasoul; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad Reza

doi:10.1002/met.1667

Cited by 14 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 24 publications

(30 reference statements)

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“…Modarres et al . (2018) reported a reduction in maximum precipitation for the period 2020–2049 in the north of Iran, which can confirm our results. Vaghefi et al .…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Analysis of spatial changes of extreme precipitation and temperature in Iran over a 50‐year period

Alavinia

Zarei

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This research was carried out to determine whether the changes in precipitation and temperature trend in Iran are attributed to climate change or natural climate variability. The trend and its magnitude with the climatic extremes indices considered by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were analysed based on the quality-controlled daily data of 37 meteorological stations by nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope method from 1966 to 2015. Results indicated that TXx, TNn, the average maximum, and minimum temperature indices have increased with a significant trend in most parts of Iran. The minimum temperatures (TNn and annual Tmin) were increased more rapidly than maximum temperatures (TXx and annual Tmax) and rising temperatures have occurred in northern latitude and western regions more than elsewhere. As a result, the temperature increase leads to changes in seasons and season length; and reduces the growing season of a

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“…Modarres et al . (2018) reported a reduction in maximum precipitation for the period 2020–2049 in the north of Iran, which can confirm our results. Vaghefi et al .…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Analysis of spatial changes of extreme precipitation and temperature in Iran over a 50‐year period

Alavinia

Zarei

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…In the studies of the impact of climate change, most previous projections have been conducted at the decadal time scale to show the trend of changes in temperature and precipitation at the mid to end of the 21 st century 25–29 . However, extremely dry and wet periods, as well as floods in intra-annual temporal scale in arid and semi-arid countries, like Iran, have not been thoroughly studied, even though their impacts have been severe.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The future of extreme climate in Iran

Vaghefi

Keykhai

Jahanbakhshi

et al. 2019

Sci Rep

205

112

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Iran is experiencing unprecedented climate-related problems such as drying of lakes and rivers, dust storms, record-breaking temperatures, droughts, and floods. Here, we use the ensemble of five high-resolution climate models to project maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall distribution, calculate occurrences of extreme temperatures (temperatures above and below the historical 95th and 5th percentiles, respectively), analyze compound of precipitation and temperature extremes, and determine flooding frequencies across the country. We found that compared to the period of 1980–2004, in the period of 2025–2049, Iran is likely to experience more extended periods of extreme maximum temperatures in the southern part of the country, more extended periods of dry (for ≥120 days: precipitation <2 mm, Tmax ≥30 °C) as well as wet (for ≤3 days: total precipitation ≥110 mm) conditions, and higher frequency of floods. Overall, the combination of these results projects a climate of extended dry periods interrupted by intermittent heavy rainfalls, which is a recipe for increasing the chances of floods. Without thoughtful adaptability measures, some parts of the country may face limited habitability in the future.

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“…Nonetheless, in some studies, by contrast, a rise in the future precipitation has been reported. For instance, Modarres et al (2018) projected the variability of the maximum daily rainfall across the North and Northwest of Iran for 2020–2049 using six GCMs under the two scenarios A2 and B1. In particular, their results suggest the projected precipitation to vary from −16 to 7% under scenario A2, compared with the reference period (1981–2010).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Do Gaining and Losing Streams React to the Combined Effects of Climate Change and Pumping in the Gharehsoo River Basin, Iran?

Semiromi

Koch

2020

Water Resources Research

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Projections of potential impacts of climate change and groundwater abstraction on gaining and losing streams, particularly in ephemeral river basins exhibiting sporadic and intricate flux exchanges, have remained largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we propose a promising modeling scheme based on the new fully integrated hydrological model SWAT-MODFLOW-NWT, calibrated and validated for 1978-2012, to quantify the intertwined surface-groundwater interactions under a conjuncture of three climatic emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) and two groundwater pumping variants: "pumping" (extending current groundwater utilization into the future) and "nonpumping" (assuming a complete cease of pumping in the future). By forcing the integrated model with future downscaled climate predictors of CanESM2 under the aforementioned RCPs for three time slices up to year 2100, projections of various water resources components for the Gharehsoo River Basin (GRB), in northwestern Iran were made. Results demonstrate that because of a general decrease of future precipitation, though with ups and downs across the total projection period, most of the surface and-subsurface budget quantities and fluxes are substantially affected. In particular, future groundwater discharge (baseflow) to the gaining streams will be more influenced by the "pumping" variant (increasing and decreasing for "nonpumping" and "pumping", respectively) than the concentrated groundwater recharge from the losing streams (decreasing and increasing for "nonpumping" and "pumping", respectively). Future water yield and groundwater storage will also diminish and, surprisingly, this cannot be alleviated by future "nonpumping", indicating the groundwater overutilization is the compelling reason for the future water scarcity in the GRB, rather than climate change alone. Plain Language Summary Understanding climate change impacts on surface-groundwater interactions, accommodating nearly all of water resources components of a watershed, is of paramount importance in devising effective strategies to alleviate the adverse impacts of climate change. This is particularly important in semiarid regions where the surface water scarcity has markedly increased the dependency on groundwater resources which, in turn, has highly affected the interaction between these two. We have provided an innovative scheme to assess and project climate change impacts on water resources of a basin and, in particularly, on gaining and losing streams at different temporal and spatial scales. In addition, the net impacts of climate change impacts on the quantity of the water resources, compared with the groundwater overutilization, can be quantified using the proposed methodological approach. Our findings importantly highlight that the groundwater overutilization is the major reason, rather than climate change impacts, for extreme groundwater storage depletion in the Gharehsoo River Basin, in northwestern Iran. As a result, groundwater discharge to the river network will diminish tremendously under the...

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Future extreme rainfall change projections in the north of Iran

Cited by 14 publications

References 24 publications

Analysis of spatial changes of extreme precipitation and temperature in Iran over a 50‐year period

Analysis of spatial changes of extreme precipitation and temperature in Iran over a 50‐year period

The future of extreme climate in Iran

How Do Gaining and Losing Streams React to the Combined Effects of Climate Change and Pumping in the Gharehsoo River Basin, Iran?

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