The future of extreme climate in Iran

Abstract

Iran is experiencing unprecedented climate-related problems such as drying of lakes and rivers, dust storms, record-breaking temperatures, droughts, and floods. Here, we use the ensemble of five high-resolution climate models to project maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall distribution, calculate occurrences of extreme temperatures (temperatures above and below the historical 95th and 5th percentiles, respectively), analyze compound of precipitation and temperature extremes, and determine flooding frequencies across the country. We found that compared to the period of 1980–2004, in the period of 2025–2049, Iran is likely to experience more extended periods of extreme maximum temperatures in the southern part of the country, more extended periods of dry (for ≥120 days: precipitation <2 mm, Tmax ≥30 °C) as well as wet (for ≤3 days: total precipitation ≥110 mm) conditions, and higher frequency of floods. Overall, the combination of these results projects a climate of extended dry periods interrupted by intermittent heavy rainfalls, which is a recipe for increasing the chances of floods. Without thoughtful adaptability measures, some parts of the country may face limited habitability in the future.

The Groundwater‒Energy‒Food Nexus in Iran’s Agricultural Sector: Implications for Water Security

“…The situation is particularly dire in the central and eastern provinces, especially Tehran, Isfahan, Fars, Kerman, and Khorasan Razavi, where the average decline is about 1 m per year. The continuation of this trend into the future should be a source of major concern, taking into account projections of warmer and drier climate in vast areas of Iran [48,49], which are expected to reduce renewable water availability and increase water stress throughout the 21st century. The dramatic groundwater drawdown in vast areas of Iran is an important sign of "water bankruptcy," associated with unsustainable GEF management policies, which has critical implications for long-term water security if the current management paradigm persists.…”

Amelioration of high temperature stress by exogenously applied salicylic acid: Genotype‐specific response of physiological traits

“…Iran has a semi‐arid to arid climate and receives, on average, 240 mm of rainfall a year. Many areas in Iran face the challenge of drought and heat stresses during the summer, where the maximum daily temperatures can exceed 30–48°C (Tabari & Hosseinzadeh Talaee, 2011; Vaghefi et al., 2019). Therefore, there is a need not only to use well‐adapted plant species but also to develop new varieties with better adaptation, growth, and productivity in hot and dry conditions.…”

Long-Term Rainfall Trends and Future Projections over Xijiang River Basin, China

“…is study analyzes the Climate Datasets from five (05) Global Climate Models (GCMs) (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M) from ISI-MIP (Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) [44], with all four scenarios (RCP-2.6, RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5). e raw GCMs output is statistically downscaled (delta method) and Bias Correction Special Disaggregation (BCSD) is applied for bias correction using Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) [45][46][47]. is CCT package also includes historical climate data [48,49] method, respectively, for given datasets.…”