Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea

Darmaraki, Sofia; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Nabat, Pierre; Cabos, William; Cavicchia, Leone; Djurdjević, Vladimir; Li, Laurent; Sannino, Gianmaria; Sein, Dmitry V.

doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04661-z

Cited by 174 publications

(164 citation statements)

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“…Here, we show that this historical trend is projected to continue and accelerate throughout the 21st century. Other studies have also modeled projected changes in MHWs, either globally or regionally Darmaraki et al, 2019). Here, we have provided additional critical information on the effect of anthropogenic climate change on different categories of MHW events and discussed the potential ecological impacts of changes to MHWs in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Projected Marine Heatwaves in the 21st Century and the Potential for Ecological Impact

et al. 2019

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Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme climatic events in oceanic systems that can have devastating impacts on ecosystems, causing abrupt ecological changes and socioeconomic consequences. Several prominent MHWs have attracted scientific and public interest, and recent assessments have documented global and regional increases in their frequency. However, for proactive marine management, it is critical to understand how patterns might change in the future. Here, we estimate future changes in MHWs to the end of the 21st century, as simulated by the CMIP5 global climate model projections. Significant increases in MHW intensity and count of annual MHW days are projected to accelerate, with many parts of the ocean reaching a near-permanent MHW state by the late 21st century. The two greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5) strongly affect the projected intensity of MHW events, the proportion of the globe exposed to permanent MHW states, and the occurrence of the most extreme MHW events. Comparison with simulations of a natural world, without anthropogenic forcing, indicate that these trends have emerged from the expected range of natural variability within the first half of the 21st century. This discrepancy implies a degree of "anthropogenic emergence," with a departure from the natural MHW conditions that have previously shaped marine ecosystems for centuries or even millennia. Based on these projections we expect impacts on marine ecosystems to be widespread, significant and persistent through the 21st century.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Projected Marine Heatwaves in the 21st Century and the Potential for Ecological Impact

et al. 2019

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“…In the case of the Mediterranean Sea, a quantitative assessment using a standarized framework is currently missing for both past surface and subsurface MHWs characteristics. There are, however, indications of an increase in surface MHW frequency and intensity in the basin for the 21st century relative to the past (Darmaraki et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past Variability of Mediterranean Sea Marine Heatwaves

Darmaraki

Somot

Sevault

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are episodes of anomalous warming in the ocean, responsible for widespread impacts on marine ecosystems. For the first time summer MHW variability at surface and three ecosystem‐relevant depths of the upper Mediterranean Sea are assessed here for 1982–2017. We apply a MHW detection algorithm on a hindcast simulation, performed with a high‐resolution, fully coupled regional climate system model. Identified surface events last, on average, 15 days with a mean intensity of 0.6 °C above threshold and a maximum sea surface coverage of around 39%. Subsurface events are seasonally shifted and appear, on average, longer and more intense but less frequent and less extended in space than surface MHWs. We also find significant trends of increase in most MHW properties throughout the period, with severe surface MHWs detected for the first time in 2012, 2015, and 2017. However, MHW spatial ≪ hot spots ≫ are inhomogeneously distributed in surface and deeper layers.

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“…The ocean is warming, both near the surface and in the abyss (Cheng et al, ; Durack et al, ; Purkey & Johnson, ). In addition to this underlying warming, temperature extremes are becoming more frequent and more intense (Frölicher et al, ; Oliver et al, ; Scannell et al, ), and are projected to continue to intensify in response to increasing greenhouse forcing (Darmaraki et al, ; Frölicher et al, ). The occurrence of sustained temperature extremes leads to marine heatwave (MHW) conditions in the ocean (Hobday et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As the impacts of MHWs will likely continue in the future (Darmaraki et al, ; Frölicher et al, ), it is important to improve our knowledge of both the local and remote processes that lead to MHW conditions in the ocean and to, ultimately, predict these conditions. Three‐dimensional ocean models are a valuable tool to explore key mechanisms that lead to MHW conditions, aiding our overall understanding of these extremes (e.g., Behrens et al, ; Oliver et al, ; Perkins‐Kirkpatrick et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Studies on global (Frölicher et al, ) and regional (Darmaraki et al, ) MHW mean properties show that both coarse‐ and high‐resolution coupled ocean‐atmosphere models simulate weaker and longer MHWs, when compared with observations. However, in regional studies, high‐resolution models have been shown to realistically simulate both the magnitude and spatial structure of specific MHW events (Benthuysen et al, ; Chen et al, ; Oliver et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sensitivity of Marine Heatwave Metrics to Ocean Model Resolution

Pilo

Holbrook

Kiss

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Sustained extreme temperature events in the ocean, referred to as marine heatwaves (MHWs), generate substantial ecological, social, and economic impacts. Ocean models provide insights to the drivers, persistence, and dissipation of MHWs. However, the sensitivity of MHW metrics to ocean model resolution is unknown. Here, we analyze global MHW metrics in three configurations of a global ocean-sea ice model at coarse (1 • ), eddy-permitting (0.25 • ), and eddy-rich (0.1 • ) resolutions. We show that all configurations qualitatively represent broad-scale global patterns of MHWs. These simulated MHWs are, however, weaker, longer-lasting, and less frequent than in observations. The 0.1 • configuration, despite local biases, performs best both globally and regionally. Based on these results, model projections of future MHW metrics using coarse-resolution models are expected to be biased toward weaker and less frequent MHWs, when compared with results using an eddy-rich model. Plain Language SummaryMarine heatwaves (MHWs) are persistent extreme temperatures in the ocean. They have a negative impact on marine life, fisheries, and tourism, and are becoming more frequent and more intense. One way to understand how MHWs form, intensify, and decay is by analyzing results from computer simulations of the ocean. However, these simulations are a simplification of reality, and depending on how they are designed they represent different aspects of the ocean circulation. It is still unknown how much the resolution of an ocean simulation matters when representing MHWs. In this work, we compare the performance of three ocean simulations-with low, medium, and high resolutions-when representing MHWs. We find that, regardless of their resolution, all simulations have weaker, longer, and less-frequent MHWs, when compared with the real world. Despite these differences, we find that simulations with medium and high-resolutions realistically represent global spatial patterns of MHWs. However, the ocean simulation with high resolution is preferable when studying regional patterns of MHWs. These results show how simulated MHWs differ from the real world, helping us to improve ocean simulations to be more realistic. In addition, we now better understand how computer simulations of future oceans, under climate change conditions, represent these extreme events. Key Points:• Marine heatwaves are weaker, longer-lasting, and less frequent in models than in observations • The higher the model resolution, the less biased the marine heatwave metrics • Eddy-permitting models can be used for global marine heatwave analyses, but eddy-rich models are optimal for regional analyses

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Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea

Cited by 174 publications

References 71 publications

Projected Marine Heatwaves in the 21st Century and the Potential for Ecological Impact

Projected Marine Heatwaves in the 21st Century and the Potential for Ecological Impact

Past Variability of Mediterranean Sea Marine Heatwaves

Sensitivity of Marine Heatwave Metrics to Ocean Model Resolution

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